I am not sure I

    Posted by steverobin on 27th of Feb 2020 at 02:48 pm

    I am not sure I have the stomach to take on additional entries to the systems trades if they call for it today.  Have quite a few positions on already.

    yep but I also feel

    Posted by matt on 27th of Feb 2020 at 02:57 pm

    yep but I also feel I I have to continue to report them. Eventually once all these close out we'll analyze them see how they did, what we can change, and who knows maybe we put more focus on the Trend stuff like the 120 min. Maybe leave some of the systems that are really hard to trigger anyway like the CCI's bear longs etc. 

    guys also as far as the option prices - I always get asked why I go in the money - from my model they were sways worth something at the end even if a 1st or 2nd entry was a losing trade. I found by buying far out of the money options - they degraded too much. Also generally the longest the trades take to close out is about 2 months, that's why I go over 2 months  - except for the CCI which is a faster type trade.  For 3rd entries I don't out in the money however. I personally still think the some of these will end up winning trades, maybe not the 1st entry trend/pullback , but the 2nd and especially the 3rde entry, the CCI 1st and 2nd etc 

    there will be additional entries today - again I have to send them out, I can't just take them offline.  Clearly this is a scary time, follow what you are comfortable with only.  you all know the market, the issues at hand etc.  As far as the SPY reversion to mean systems I will continue to report the trades. However clearly these obviously not normal times, please do what you are comfortable with avoid what you are not comfortable with.  However since the systems are active I feel it is my duty to continue to post them and of course once all the market mess clears we will see how these system trades finally end up.  

    also guys just so you

    Posted by matt on 27th of Feb 2020 at 03:23 pm

    also guys just so you are aware  - when I did the option model - I sent back to about 2013, I couldn't really go back any further than that and get reliable data.

    there were times when you had 5 entries on the Trend/Pullback, and you also had 3 and 4 other sub systems in entries 1 - 2 entries.  None of those times were fun and obviously this one isn't either. anyway intra day is not the time to discuss that in detail. 

    Today the Trend/Pullback will take a 3rd entry. The CCI and QE BTS systems will take 2nd entries. Again there were times in the past when you had the Trend in 4 - 5 entries and 3 other systems in trades, so even more than now.  The difference now though is probably how fast this has occurred - most of those times were in very deep bear market territory, not a couple weeks off the highs. 

    again at this time I can't change things mid cycle - I have to report the trades - do them or don't do them - and once they all close out in the future we'll do a deep dive and see what we can change or not change, maybe more focus on the 2hr trend stuff etc. But for now I have to keep trading these

    Thanks for keeping us honest

    Posted by elementsix on 27th of Feb 2020 at 04:15 pm

    Thanks for keeping us honest and helping us stick to the systems! Hard to trade but I appreciate all the work! 

    what I'll do after hrs

    Posted by matt on 27th of Feb 2020 at 03:30 pm

    what I'll do after hrs sometime is take some images of some of those past trade and the option data and show you their draw down and how they behaved

    I hear you. I'm taking

    Posted by mamacash on 27th of Feb 2020 at 02:50 pm

    I hear you. I'm taking super low-risk trades like broken flies and verticals. Not wiling to pay the price for deep ITM calls since I already have quite a few that under water.

    I hear you.  I just

    Posted by ssaffer on 27th of Feb 2020 at 02:51 pm

    I hear you.  I just bought some April 17th 337 SPY Calls@0.40 Low risk. 

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