Mom and Pop did better than most Hedge Funds in 2019.
Going short this market has provided a lot of pain unless you are
trading a 5 min chart (most people aren't). Monthly, Weekly
and Daily trends are still strong. This morning -I had a
nice profit this am only to see it erode and get stopped out later
in the day to a net zero gain (painful). Thankfully
commissions are zero but more waste of my time = loss of money in
the end. Best plan for me is to stay long this market and
trail up stops. IF you re-entered the market on or around
10/10/2019 and still riding this wave, you are trading with the
trend (following The $BPSPX chart). Trying to forecast is a
huge waste of time and money ( just my two cents).
Those type of comments tend to occur right before a nice
pullback. The short trade was simply a reversion to
mean and yesterday's rally formed a lower high.
also be careful of the BPSPX thinking it's the grail - it will
give you big whipsaw losses at times - use higher lows for stops vs
waiting for it to trigger. Also that's not a full fledged system,
like any indicator it tends to go back and forth. For example
rarely does it give two big winning trades in a row, most of the
time the next signal or couple signals are whipsaws. Which brings
up my point, when it does go on a sell signal next time, the odds
are very strong that will be a losing signal. It's kind of like
wave patterns - markets move in waves, wave 1 up, wave 2 is your
corrective wave, wave 3 is your trending wave, wave 4 is
corrective. Wave A is trending, wave B is corrective, wave C
is trending - note that trending waves are following by
consolidation waves, that's why trend indicators like BPSPX tend go
back and forth because the winning trades to be only be on waves 1,
3, 5, A, B, and losing trades occur on waves 2, 5, B
also I sense emotion in your post, try to stay objective because
emotion clouds judgement - there is a time to trend trade and
time to take profits - we are clearly in a trend. Be careful
looking at the trend from Oct until now and basing your whole
future trading conditions on that. It's like the guys I've
seen here post before how the 13/34 EMA cross works so well on a 60
min chart because they looked at the last 3 months and tell me they
are only going to follow that - however if you actually bactest
that, it's a losing strategy . Be careful looking at a short
segment in time and extrapolating that to a grand trading plan
you are looking at it the wrong way. mom/pop generally do not
make good decisions on the market historically. Also they
rarely want to make changes and simply buy and hold, for them to
start placing $1 stops on long term positions like MSFT and AAPL is
way out of norm. I mean hey if they are the expert now, I'll
gladly step down and let them do the newsletter for you
look doing fall into the trap of thinking mom/pop or buy and
hold investors are now geniuses. What the hyperbolic market
has done over the last few years is make anyone who buys and holds
feel like they have it figured out etc, while ironically many
traders who know 1000 times more did not do as well because they
over thought things, sold when prices were overbought only for
prices to get overbought.
everything goes in cycles, the last few years your neighbors who
have 401Ks and make no changes are the winners, while one day in
the future be on the wrong side again when the market enters a bear
phases and more of a chop phase.
however the whole point to my post below as the the buy and
holders are starting to 'short term' react to things, and place
tight stops, vs just buy and hold like they used to. That's out of
norm.
again we can all learn form each other. I've told Steve many
times - short term trading is fine but there's also a place for
recognizing when to hold. I think our trade sets here are
outstanding, I've giving you my long term favorite ideas, and our
daily and 120 min higher low systems allow you to ride these
uptrends for as long as they will go on, while at the same time
being protected
enough rant, time to record the newsletter
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read my comments from below. https://breakpointtrades.com/blog/post/313236/
So that s the long awaited correction- and now back ...
Posted by matt on 23rd of Jan 2020 at 04:05 pm
read my comments from below.
https://breakpointtrades.com/blog/post/313236/
thx--buy and hold like the
Posted by watcdy on 23rd of Jan 2020 at 05:17 pm
thx--buy and hold like the mom/pops did better than most by staying in
Mom and Pop did better
Posted by ssaffer on 23rd of Jan 2020 at 05:29 pm
Mom and Pop did better than most Hedge Funds in 2019. Going short this market has provided a lot of pain unless you are trading a 5 min chart (most people aren't). Monthly, Weekly and Daily trends are still strong. This morning -I had a nice profit this am only to see it erode and get stopped out later in the day to a net zero gain (painful). Thankfully commissions are zero but more waste of my time = loss of money in the end. Best plan for me is to stay long this market and trail up stops. IF you re-entered the market on or around 10/10/2019 and still riding this wave, you are trading with the trend (following The $BPSPX chart). Trying to forecast is a huge waste of time and money ( just my two cents).
Those type of comments tend
Posted by steve on 24th of Jan 2020 at 03:39 pm
Those type of comments tend to occur right before a nice pullback. The short trade was simply a reversion to mean and yesterday's rally formed a lower high.
Steve we are due
Posted by RP on 24th of Jan 2020 at 03:51 pm
Steve we are due
also be careful of the
Posted by matt on 23rd of Jan 2020 at 06:30 pm
also be careful of the BPSPX thinking it's the grail - it will give you big whipsaw losses at times - use higher lows for stops vs waiting for it to trigger. Also that's not a full fledged system, like any indicator it tends to go back and forth. For example rarely does it give two big winning trades in a row, most of the time the next signal or couple signals are whipsaws. Which brings up my point, when it does go on a sell signal next time, the odds are very strong that will be a losing signal. It's kind of like wave patterns - markets move in waves, wave 1 up, wave 2 is your corrective wave, wave 3 is your trending wave, wave 4 is corrective. Wave A is trending, wave B is corrective, wave C is trending - note that trending waves are following by consolidation waves, that's why trend indicators like BPSPX tend go back and forth because the winning trades to be only be on waves 1, 3, 5, A, B, and losing trades occur on waves 2, 5, B
also I sense emotion in your post, try to stay objective because emotion clouds judgement - there is a time to trend trade and time to take profits - we are clearly in a trend. Be careful looking at the trend from Oct until now and basing your whole future trading conditions on that. It's like the guys I've seen here post before how the 13/34 EMA cross works so well on a 60 min chart because they looked at the last 3 months and tell me they are only going to follow that - however if you actually bactest that, it's a losing strategy . Be careful looking at a short segment in time and extrapolating that to a grand trading plan
you are looking at it
Posted by matt on 23rd of Jan 2020 at 06:18 pm
you are looking at it the wrong way. mom/pop generally do not make good decisions on the market historically. Also they rarely want to make changes and simply buy and hold, for them to start placing $1 stops on long term positions like MSFT and AAPL is way out of norm. I mean hey if they are the expert now, I'll gladly step down and let them do the newsletter for you
look doing fall into the trap of thinking mom/pop or buy and hold investors are now geniuses. What the hyperbolic market has done over the last few years is make anyone who buys and holds feel like they have it figured out etc, while ironically many traders who know 1000 times more did not do as well because they over thought things, sold when prices were overbought only for prices to get overbought.
everything goes in cycles, the last few years your neighbors who have 401Ks and make no changes are the winners, while one day in the future be on the wrong side again when the market enters a bear phases and more of a chop phase.
however the whole point to my post below as the the buy and holders are starting to 'short term' react to things, and place tight stops, vs just buy and hold like they used to. That's out of norm.
again we can all learn form each other. I've told Steve many times - short term trading is fine but there's also a place for recognizing when to hold. I think our trade sets here are outstanding, I've giving you my long term favorite ideas, and our daily and 120 min higher low systems allow you to ride these uptrends for as long as they will go on, while at the same time being protected
enough rant, time to record the newsletter