so if that's what you meant, I ran a scan, first off I see that
SMA is better than EMA for the exhaustion trades. 7 days over
the 3 EMA has a profit factor of only 1.5 while 7 days over the 3
SMS has a profit factor of 5.74, which isn't bad. The max
draw though though is about 11% so so there was one trade where it
shorted and the the market went up quite a bit. otherwise 30
examples since 1995 with 83.3% winning.
the higher number you go of course you would expect less draw
down, if you go 11 days over the 3 SMA only a draw down of 1.4%,
here's a scan result, but only 4 trades since 1995
again you have to scan this stuff guys to be confident of the
trades
remember with my stuff I can test any condition. I might
test 2 - 5 MAs here and let you know if anything shows
up.
however today is 8 above the 3 MA, yesterday was 7. 8 days
above the max draw down drops from 11% to 5%, so quite a bit of
drop going from 7 to 8. however if we get to 11 early next
week the max draw down is only about 0.1%, to me that's so tiny
it's worth shorting it for a quickie
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so if that's what you
hey Matt-No SPY Exhaustion signal yesterday??7 over the 3
Posted by matt on 20th of Dec 2019 at 11:26 am
so if that's what you meant, I ran a scan, first off I see that SMA is better than EMA for the exhaustion trades. 7 days over the 3 EMA has a profit factor of only 1.5 while 7 days over the 3 SMS has a profit factor of 5.74, which isn't bad. The max draw though though is about 11% so so there was one trade where it shorted and the the market went up quite a bit. otherwise 30 examples since 1995 with 83.3% winning.
the higher number you go of course you would expect less draw down, if you go 11 days over the 3 SMA only a draw down of 1.4%, here's a scan result, but only 4 trades since 1995
again you have to scan this stuff guys to be confident of the trades
today would be the 8th
Posted by matt on 20th of Dec 2019 at 11:30 am
today would be the 8th day above
yes-- thank you. Was referring
Posted by pep8261 on 20th of Dec 2019 at 11:32 am
yes-- thank you. Was referring to Oct 23 2017 post. thought maybe there was a trigger.
remember with my stuff I
Posted by matt on 20th of Dec 2019 at 11:37 am
remember with my stuff I can test any condition. I might test 2 - 5 MAs here and let you know if anything shows up.
however today is 8 above the 3 MA, yesterday was 7. 8 days above the max draw down drops from 11% to 5%, so quite a bit of drop going from 7 to 8. however if we get to 11 early next week the max draw down is only about 0.1%, to me that's so tiny it's worth shorting it for a quickie