Matt, regarding the exhaustion trade, since Trump seems to
measure his performance by how well the Dow is doing (yet again in
public remarks this morning), betting against the market seems
riskier than usual. There have been lots of days lately where the
market opens lower, then grinds higher relentlessly as the day goes
on. Given his fixation on new market highs as key to getting
reelected, it would not surprise me if there are forces behind the
scenes operating to goose the markets, distorting normal market
dynamics.
yeah it wouldn't surprise me. But also case in point, the ES
breakout systems in long, so in a future scenario where we are
trading both ES and SPY, we'd have been in that long for a few
weeks now canceling out the short and more so because it went long
75 points ago.
Simple case in point - AAPL every week or every Friday (take
your pick) for the past 7 weeks you could have bought calls and
made easy coin. I have a funny feeling this could happen 2
more times and would be confirmed by a proper tank in metals over
the next 2 weeks till Thanksgiving ; BA and MSFT are likely
candidates too. Then once everyone has given Thanks - boom
1st wk of Dec we get to that 8 day sma. The other possible
scenario, especially with the HK tension is that we correct right
now Monday-Wed... that way we'll have time to get giddy again
headed into Turkey day. The final scenario is that this BS
rally continues and there is a 3rd entry on the exhaustion.
Trump won't let the markets go down before election, as I've
stated before, but no way it can continue at this pace right ?
Like for the 1st time in history ? Naaaa ... people will die
in HK, China will be screwed, markets will correct but then we'll
rally into election. Let's C.
I'm not sure what your point is of buying AAPL every Friday, why
every Friday? I've been long AAPL in my IRA since Sept, as
well as MSFT, (sold DIS last week but will look to buy it back),
and sold AMD finally. Again I don't really understand the whole buy
on Friday thing, just follow the daily chart man
Posted by stevieb294 on 18th of Nov 2019 at 08:43 am
FWIW Just as an answer; there are any number of options trading
courses that suggest buying, for example, SPX credit spreads every
Monday when the trend is up (as defined by them.) This helps the
student not have to follow a chart (or think too much.) Obviously
it works well until it doesn't. They excuse their losses by citing
their gains.
Just that the weekly call option on AAPL has been a winner on it
every week like clockwork. Buy it Friday am and sell it a few
mins before close. Haven't seen that in a single stock that
consistently but you are right, could have bought any of those a
couple months ago and done great.
Matt, regarding the exhaustion trade,
Posted by jimsim on 15th of Nov 2019 at 04:15 pm
Matt, regarding the exhaustion trade, since Trump seems to measure his performance by how well the Dow is doing (yet again in public remarks this morning), betting against the market seems riskier than usual. There have been lots of days lately where the market opens lower, then grinds higher relentlessly as the day goes on. Given his fixation on new market highs as key to getting reelected, it would not surprise me if there are forces behind the scenes operating to goose the markets, distorting normal market dynamics.
yeah it wouldn't surprise me.
Posted by matt on 17th of Nov 2019 at 10:27 pm
yeah it wouldn't surprise me. But also case in point, the ES breakout systems in long, so in a future scenario where we are trading both ES and SPY, we'd have been in that long for a few weeks now canceling out the short and more so because it went long 75 points ago.
Simple case in point -
Posted by deep on 17th of Nov 2019 at 10:04 pm
Simple case in point - AAPL every week or every Friday (take your pick) for the past 7 weeks you could have bought calls and made easy coin. I have a funny feeling this could happen 2 more times and would be confirmed by a proper tank in metals over the next 2 weeks till Thanksgiving ; BA and MSFT are likely candidates too. Then once everyone has given Thanks - boom 1st wk of Dec we get to that 8 day sma. The other possible scenario, especially with the HK tension is that we correct right now Monday-Wed... that way we'll have time to get giddy again headed into Turkey day. The final scenario is that this BS rally continues and there is a 3rd entry on the exhaustion. Trump won't let the markets go down before election, as I've stated before, but no way it can continue at this pace right ? Like for the 1st time in history ? Naaaa ... people will die in HK, China will be screwed, markets will correct but then we'll rally into election. Let's C.
I'm not sure what your
Posted by matt on 17th of Nov 2019 at 10:29 pm
I'm not sure what your point is of buying AAPL every Friday, why every Friday? I've been long AAPL in my IRA since Sept, as well as MSFT, (sold DIS last week but will look to buy it back), and sold AMD finally. Again I don't really understand the whole buy on Friday thing, just follow the daily chart man
FWIW Just as an answer;
Posted by stevieb294 on 18th of Nov 2019 at 08:43 am
FWIW Just as an answer; there are any number of options trading courses that suggest buying, for example, SPX credit spreads every Monday when the trend is up (as defined by them.) This helps the student not have to follow a chart (or think too much.) Obviously it works well until it doesn't. They excuse their losses by citing their gains.
Just that the weekly call
Posted by deep on 18th of Nov 2019 at 07:23 am
Just that the weekly call option on AAPL has been a winner on it every week like clockwork. Buy it Friday am and sell it a few mins before close. Haven't seen that in a single stock that consistently but you are right, could have bought any of those a couple months ago and done great.
as fan FYI, the exhaustion
Posted by matt on 15th of Nov 2019 at 04:21 pm
as fan FYI, the exhaustion trade needs a close below the 8 day SMA to close out.
giving you that info so that you know what is needed to close the trade out
Me and my -$30k in
Posted by deep on 17th of Nov 2019 at 09:47 pm
Me and my -$30k in Jan puts (read dumb ass Deep) hopes this happens soon. @EdZ "long, arduous, or tedious" pain trade blues.