An observation guys on the DVT higher low stops

    Posted by matt on 4th of Nov 2019 at 10:07 am

    So something I thought about on the weekend that I need to backtest but may be a very useful guild for pointing out very overbought conditions in the future. 

    You've probably seen folks look at things like when the SPX gets X% above the 200 day MA such as 8%, price is too stretched etc. However I had a novel thought about doing the same with our DVT higher low stop system.  My thought is that if the current price of the SPX is too far away from the previous DVT higher low stop that things are too stretched and due for some reversion to mean action and that is probably a LOT more powerful than simple things like looking to see how far the SPX is above it's 200 day MA that is commonly used. 

    Here's a couple charts, for example currently the SPX is about 7.3% away from the last higher low DVT stop on the daily chart. On the daily SPX the daily DVT is still way down at 2856 because that's the last time the fast response BPT changed colors, that's over 225 points away or 7.34%.  Obviously on a 2hr time frame it's very tight but I'm discussing the daily. In my observations typically your DVT's only tend to be about 2 - 3% away from current prices.  Also I noted that end of Jan 2018 it was also 7.3% away.  Typically price only gets to around 5 - 5.5% before you get some pullback so 7.3% is quite stretched, for example what you had in early May this year before that correction

    anyway I need to write an alogrythm to test the back history on this so that we can have hard data, however it's something I thought I would point out that I thought of last night about 1 am. LOL I got up and wrote it down so I would remember to look at it today. My brain is always working

    I have been saying and

    Posted by goap1207 on 4th of Nov 2019 at 10:38 am

    I have been saying and asking for years--get a system based on BPT trending indicator.  I am a financial adviser and BPT along the the paint dry systems would be most useful for me and my clients.   I love all the systems and trade them including the ES System but we need systems for intermediate and longer term time frames.  I personally love the BPT indicator.  Thanks and keep up the great work!!!!!!!!

    look guys, don't misread my

    Posted by matt on 4th of Nov 2019 at 10:15 am

    look guys, don't misread my words and the Jan 2018 comparison.  All that this really says is that it's been too long since we've had a DVT, and thus pretty soon the market will probably need a pullback to create the next DVT.  Remember you only get new DVT's on pullbacks and it's been a while since we had the last one.

    anyway I still have to compile data so we can't make any hard conclusions or trade decisions at this time until I get more data

    Nicely done, Matt and thank

    Posted by stevieb294 on 4th of Nov 2019 at 11:10 am

    Nicely done, Matt and thank you. Love those observations of yours.

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