SPY trade numbers

    Posted by matt on 4th of Oct 2019 at 01:44 pm

    so here's the numbers on that QE BTS trade which closed out. The 1st entry a very minor loser of about -$10 on SPY on $10K, and -$60 on the option.  But a nice $339 winner on the SSO 2nd entry and $900 on the option. 

    Intra day as I said the market still looks higher to me, I probably should have just watched it and waited vs closing it, which is also why I sent out that second email.  The 'Bail' condition is a stop measure that was made many years ago to protect the system again some big crash, but I don't see that risk here, and also I think that should be re-coded to the close instead of intra day

    anyway the fact that one of the systems is still long 2 entries means that we still have a long position exposure should the market continue higher next week, so ti's fine.  

    Plus I have contractors over today, so  I'm very distracted here

    Here's the SPY trades with

    Posted by matt on 4th of Oct 2019 at 04:13 pm

    Here's the SPY trades with the open trades. On the open Pullback trade, currently that 1st entry is slightly down since it was too early but only -53 on SPY and -40 on the options, whereas the 2nd entries are up 426 for the SSO ETF and 1120 for the options!  Please realize that these are not closed and are still open so that could be erased should the market pullback next week, however that's where things stand currently.

    Too bad I closed out the QE BTS mid day vs waiting because it would have added another 200 to the options.

    AMAZINGLY IF .... your breakout

    Posted by retirefire on 4th of Oct 2019 at 04:41 pm

    AMAZINGLY IF .... your breakout trade didn't exit the day the Pull back opened! Get to work Matt...LOL sarc.

    Great work Matt, system teaching

    Posted by retirefire on 4th of Oct 2019 at 02:12 pm

    Great work Matt, system teaching me trade when there is blood and not be frozen in fear.  Looking at your SPY chart and actually trading it (living thru the emotion) is big difference for me.  Trying not to trade on emotion anyway. Just my simplistic 2 cents. FWIW I don't mind the early bail for profit

    great comments about the emotion.

    Posted by matt on 4th of Oct 2019 at 02:23 pm

    great comments about the emotion.  As an example a new member who signed up maybe a month ago or less, on Wed wrote in asking to cancel and wanted his money back, and his reason was the SPY system trade was down.   He hadn't taken the previous winning trades because he was new here.  I tried to explain to him that's how the system trades at times and it wasn't doing anything out of the ordinary such as baking a big draw down  Anyway I couldn't help but email him back today saying you should have taken that second entry on Wed as you would have paid for the membership at least.

    anyway people get really emotional on these trades, I get it, it's not easy, it's just something that you learn to deal with if you stick with it.

    also position size is key relative to your account size. I think he was someone who had a very small account. And if you have a very small account which means you end up having to use your whole account capital in a working trade that is taking a little draw down, it's tough to stomach it and not get emotional.

    it's best to set aside a portion of capital that you will be trading with the system (not your whole account) and it's an amount that is such you don't freak out on trades that take some draw down, i.e. let the system work.

    I agree with your comments

    Posted by steverobin on 4th of Oct 2019 at 08:36 pm

    I agree with your comments on position size.  No trade should be taken that is too large for your account size whether it is a "regular" trade or the SPY system trade.

    Thanks for the insight Matt.

    Posted by craigm on 4th of Oct 2019 at 02:52 pm

    Thanks for the insight Matt. I joined back in July and figured it would be "easy" emotionally to adhere to the SPY system. On the SPY trades back in early Aug you recall we had a draw down then as well and I could not get myself to take the CCI subsystem trade because the other trades were so underwater at the time. FEAR. This time, there was no hesitation in taking the second entries for both subsystems. It comes with a better understand of how the systems work and increased belief in there positive performance over the long term. It is a definitely a learning process.  I remember you mentioned before if you are going to trade the SPY systems don't pick and choose which entries to take. Thank you to you and Steve for all you guys do to help us. 

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