here's what tends to happen with a lot of of people with the
systems. I have guys who have sat here and watched the system
trades from May and all the winners, then after 12 trades they
decide okay I've seen it trade for a while and win all those trades
now I'll finally take a trade. And wouldn't you know it, the way
fate works or 'murphys law' when they finally take a trade it's a
loser. That's the way that kind of stuff tends to play out.
That's why I say with systems, if you are gonna do them just do
them from the start.
anyway at this time looks unfortunately looks like the breakout
trade will likely close out. However the Trend sub system will
probably be taking a 1st entry. How do we handle that? that would
be a separate trade and position with SPY and new options, vs
simply holding the positions from the Breakout. The Trend is
probably one of the more suspect to a 2nd entry and some draw down,
as we say back in early Aug.
here's an image of the systems,the Trend is on the upper left.
The breakout is on the upper right. the next image shows the stats
of the Trend which will likely enter a 1st position today.
short term the market is oversold here intra day on a 5 min time
frame
Matt, I somehow got the impression we used a hard stop-loss on
the Breakout system and therefore got stopped out intraday. Can you
clarify if there is any SPY system that we should set an intraday
stop-loss for, or are ALL the SPY systems end of day exits? Trying
to follow the rules correctly....thanks.
I said below, the system uses a hard stop after it has a certain
positive trade going on.
again guys really the trade close out email is the fine
confirmation.
yes I did mention a stop in the newsletters, I didn't clarify
that was end of day, sorry about that,will be clearer next
time.
I'm also not sure why that inital stop isn't intra day instead
of end of day.
I think it should probably be intra day and is something I'll
look to have changed and will let you know when /if I do
You lose 2x profit by using intraday stop. Seems to indicate
most of these drops are news driven. Probably best to keep at end
of day. Everyone always tell me that novices trade the first hour
of day, pros trade last hour of day.
FYI I had my programmer code a version where that stop is intra
day instead of close of day on the breakout. the Profit factor
drops from 25 as it is now to 12 with it on. I can discuss in more
detail another time. Here's an image the intra day version is on
the left, you can see it stopped out, the current one we use is on
the right
FYI I had my programmer code a version where that stop is intra
day instead of close of day on the breakout. the Profit factor
drops from 25 as it is now to 12 with it on. I can discuss in more
detail another time. Here's an image the intra day version is on
the left, you can see it stopped out, the current one we use is on
the right
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Yep - that was painful
Market moved lower on some impeachment talk
Posted by craigm on 24th of Sep 2019 at 12:52 pm
Yep - that was painful
here's what tends to happen
Posted by matt on 24th of Sep 2019 at 01:06 pm
here's what tends to happen with a lot of of people with the systems. I have guys who have sat here and watched the system trades from May and all the winners, then after 12 trades they decide okay I've seen it trade for a while and win all those trades now I'll finally take a trade. And wouldn't you know it, the way fate works or 'murphys law' when they finally take a trade it's a loser. That's the way that kind of stuff tends to play out. That's why I say with systems, if you are gonna do them just do them from the start.
anyway at this time looks unfortunately looks like the breakout trade will likely close out. However the Trend sub system will probably be taking a 1st entry. How do we handle that? that would be a separate trade and position with SPY and new options, vs simply holding the positions from the Breakout. The Trend is probably one of the more suspect to a 2nd entry and some draw down, as we say back in early Aug.
here's an image of the systems,the Trend is on the upper left. The breakout is on the upper right. the next image shows the stats of the Trend which will likely enter a 1st position today.
short term the market is oversold here intra day on a 5 min time frame
Matt, I somehow got the
Posted by craigm on 24th of Sep 2019 at 01:13 pm
Matt, I somehow got the impression we used a hard stop-loss on the Breakout system and therefore got stopped out intraday. Can you clarify if there is any SPY system that we should set an intraday stop-loss for, or are ALL the SPY systems end of day exits? Trying to follow the rules correctly....thanks.
I said below, the system
Posted by matt on 24th of Sep 2019 at 01:20 pm
I said below, the system uses a hard stop after it has a certain positive trade going on.
again guys really the trade close out email is the fine confirmation.
yes I did mention a stop in the newsletters, I didn't clarify that was end of day, sorry about that,will be clearer next time.
I'm also not sure why that inital stop isn't intra day instead of end of day. I think it should probably be intra day and is something I'll look to have changed and will let you know when /if I do
Thanks Matt. I think it
Posted by mheydar on 24th of Sep 2019 at 02:31 pm
Thanks Matt. I think it would be nice to have an interday stop from day one of any trade. I am not sure if that would be possible
You lose 2x profit by
Posted by oatdust on 24th of Sep 2019 at 03:07 pm
You lose 2x profit by using intraday stop. Seems to indicate most of these drops are news driven. Probably best to keep at end of day. Everyone always tell me that novices trade the first hour of day, pros trade last hour of day.
yep and again my guess
Posted by matt on 24th of Sep 2019 at 02:32 pm
yep and again my guess is that it would have to be wider to keep the same PF or higher i.e. give and take basically
When you look at your
Posted by retirefire on 24th of Sep 2019 at 02:44 pm
When you look at your chart of trades, albeit a short sample ... from May restart, It's hard to fine tune being up 15k.
FYI I had my programmer
Posted by matt on 24th of Sep 2019 at 02:21 pm
FYI I had my programmer code a version where that stop is intra day instead of close of day on the breakout. the Profit factor drops from 25 as it is now to 12 with it on. I can discuss in more detail another time. Here's an image the intra day version is on the left, you can see it stopped out, the current one we use is on the right
FYI I had my programmer
Posted by matt on 24th of Sep 2019 at 02:21 pm
FYI I had my programmer code a version where that stop is intra day instead of close of day on the breakout. the Profit factor drops from 25 as it is now to 12 with it on. I can discuss in more detail another time. Here's an image the intra day version is on the left, you can see it stopped out, the current one we use is on the right