here's the final numbers. I went ahead and showed the profit on
the current open Trend trade as well. Obviously those trades are
still open and not locked in (shown in yellow)
also here's the image showing the SPY Pro High Probability
Systems. You can see the Trend is still long on the upper left, the
CCI closed out on the bottom right, the chart in the upper middle
with 9 long systems on it closed out.
These last trades since Aug 2nd would be up 5600 if you took
both options and ETF, the options are up 4K. Since May 8 everything
up about $14,000
Posted by CopperMtn on 9th of Aug 2019 at 12:23 pm
Matt, I missed the first entry on SPY Strap, but entered equal
dollar SPY and SSO positions at the 2nd entry. I closed both out
yesterday and had a nice trade. Thanks! Just curious, have you guys
ever run the profit numbers for making the first entry only if/when
a second entry occurs? Sure, it would miss 1st entry only trades
but would it make all those trades more profitable with lower
drawdown?
no and that would only be viable on some sub systems like the
Trend where maybe you only take 2nd entries on that one, however
many of these newer high probability systems rarely even have 2
entries, so if you did that across the board you would probably cut
out 75% of the trades, and the system just wouldn't trade
enough.
yeah I mean you might only get one 3 entry trade in a year and
many years you will have none, yes they are VERY highly probable
which is why on options I do ATM options, but it's not something
you wait for because especially 3 entries very rare. and in 2017
there were NO 2nd entries in fact. Again guys you can't
really make decisions without having all the info, you can't base
decisions on the last 2 weeks and apply it across the board
3 entries
- 2019 none so far
- 2018, 1
- 2017, 0 and NO 2nd entries even, all
1st entries only
- 2016, 0
- 2015 , 0
- 2014, 2
- 2013, 0
Honestly 3 entries are so are, we should probably use UPRO for
2nd entries instead of the 3rd entry
Yes SPXL fine, honestly SPXL vs UPRO, that's six one half dozen
the other, basically the difference between SPXL and UPRO gains are
gonna be pennies probably
so I edited that post a few times, you need to hard refresh to
see the updated versions. but basically in 7 years you only had
three 3 entries, so again that's not something you sit and wait
around for. they are rarer than Bigfoot
SPY Pro system fine numbers
Posted by matt on 8th of Aug 2019 at 04:09 pm
here's the final numbers. I went ahead and showed the profit on the current open Trend trade as well. Obviously those trades are still open and not locked in (shown in yellow)
also here's the image showing the SPY Pro High Probability Systems. You can see the Trend is still long on the upper left, the CCI closed out on the bottom right, the chart in the upper middle with 9 long systems on it closed out.
These last trades since Aug 2nd would be up 5600 if you took both options and ETF, the options are up 4K. Since May 8 everything up about $14,000
Matt, I missed the first
Posted by CopperMtn on 9th of Aug 2019 at 12:23 pm
Matt, I missed the first entry on SPY Strap, but entered equal dollar SPY and SSO positions at the 2nd entry. I closed both out yesterday and had a nice trade. Thanks! Just curious, have you guys ever run the profit numbers for making the first entry only if/when a second entry occurs? Sure, it would miss 1st entry only trades but would it make all those trades more profitable with lower drawdown?
no and that would only
Posted by matt on 9th of Aug 2019 at 12:43 pm
no and that would only be viable on some sub systems like the Trend where maybe you only take 2nd entries on that one, however many of these newer high probability systems rarely even have 2 entries, so if you did that across the board you would probably cut out 75% of the trades, and the system just wouldn't trade enough.
The stats on 1st vs
Posted by shecar on 9th of Aug 2019 at 01:27 pm
The stats on 1st vs 2nd vs 3rd entries would be very interesting. Seems like 2nd and especially 3rd entries almost always are big winners.
yeah I mean you might
Posted by matt on 9th of Aug 2019 at 01:36 pm
yeah I mean you might only get one 3 entry trade in a year and many years you will have none, yes they are VERY highly probable which is why on options I do ATM options, but it's not something you wait for because especially 3 entries very rare. and in 2017 there were NO 2nd entries in fact. Again guys you can't really make decisions without having all the info, you can't base decisions on the last 2 weeks and apply it across the board
3 entries
Honestly 3 entries are so are, we should probably use UPRO for 2nd entries instead of the 3rd entry
What about SPXL (3x ETF)?
Posted by ssaffer on 9th of Aug 2019 at 04:03 pm
What about SPXL (3x ETF)?
Yes SPXL fine, honestly SPXL
Posted by matt on 11th of Aug 2019 at 10:24 pm
Yes SPXL fine, honestly SPXL vs UPRO, that's six one half dozen the other, basically the difference between SPXL and UPRO gains are gonna be pennies probably
Good intel, thank you!
Posted by shecar on 9th of Aug 2019 at 02:32 pm
Good intel, thank you!
so I edited that post
Posted by matt on 9th of Aug 2019 at 01:46 pm
so I edited that post a few times, you need to hard refresh to see the updated versions. but basically in 7 years you only had three 3 entries, so again that's not something you sit and wait around for. they are rarer than Bigfoot
Very nicely done. Thanks for
Posted by chapgolf on 8th of Aug 2019 at 04:14 pm
Very nicely done. Thanks for the early notification as well. Love the SPY Pro System.