So got a bit of a complicated situation. At the moment the SPY
Breakout system is triggering long, looking to go long at the
close. You might say why today we are not breaking out. Well
there's an RSI 2 filter in there that prevents it from going long
if the market is too stretched in the very short term i.e. an RSI 2
indicator is say over 99%. Without that filter the system
would have actually went long last week, and would have been
stopped this morning for a small winning trade as you can see from
the image. The trade with the RSI 2 filter was filtered out
from going long last week and would now be going long today
instead. I've attached two images, one shows the breakout sub
system with and without the RSI 2 filter. And the second image
shows the statistics to both conditions. The version with the
filter has slightly better stats i.e. a profit factor of 22.4 vs
16.3, and 91.8% vs 91% winning trades, and especially a lower draw
down of -2.5K vs -4.4K without the filter. The total gains however
are lower with the filter for the obvious reasons that some good
trades were filtered out in the past.
anyway I'll probably go ahead and send this trade out for the
system as I had settled on the RSI 2 condition earlier this year,
but obviously a bit weary since we just got out of a bit trade and
the symmetry break on the 2hr time frame. that said the Breakout
Trade only has 2 possible entries and will stop out if price simply
sold off hard.
I'm not trying to make this more complicated, I'm just giving
you all the info to make an informed decision on your own
did not send a text the second time, there's a bug in our system
where I can't send both at same time, it's currently being worked
on, so to save time I sent an email. I figured people would be
looking at email. that SMS bug will be fixed today
Posted by retirefire on 25th of Jun 2019 at 03:34 pm
OK Matt, For now I go with system and statistically it plays
well over time. Will look for signal just so I'm with the program
and I see how it flows. Thanks
yep, otherwise this is a higher risk trade, and we have a sym
break on the intra day time frame, doesn't mean it won't work out.
Lot of news later this week with G20 etc
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Possible new SPY system trade but see details
Posted by matt on 25th of Jun 2019 at 03:24 pm
So got a bit of a complicated situation. At the moment the SPY Breakout system is triggering long, looking to go long at the close. You might say why today we are not breaking out. Well there's an RSI 2 filter in there that prevents it from going long if the market is too stretched in the very short term i.e. an RSI 2 indicator is say over 99%. Without that filter the system would have actually went long last week, and would have been stopped this morning for a small winning trade as you can see from the image. The trade with the RSI 2 filter was filtered out from going long last week and would now be going long today instead. I've attached two images, one shows the breakout sub system with and without the RSI 2 filter. And the second image shows the statistics to both conditions. The version with the filter has slightly better stats i.e. a profit factor of 22.4 vs 16.3, and 91.8% vs 91% winning trades, and especially a lower draw down of -2.5K vs -4.4K without the filter. The total gains however are lower with the filter for the obvious reasons that some good trades were filtered out in the past.
anyway I'll probably go ahead and send this trade out for the system as I had settled on the RSI 2 condition earlier this year, but obviously a bit weary since we just got out of a bit trade and the symmetry break on the 2hr time frame. that said the Breakout Trade only has 2 possible entries and will stop out if price simply sold off hard.
I'm not trying to make this more complicated, I'm just giving you all the info to make an informed decision on your own
Where will the stop be
Posted by shecar on 25th of Jun 2019 at 06:04 pm
Where will the stop be placed?
will we be getting an
Posted by winter39 on 25th of Jun 2019 at 04:06 pm
will we be getting an alert from you before 4:15? Thank you for all your careful work.
there was one sent out
Posted by matt on 25th of Jun 2019 at 04:12 pm
there was one sent out
sorry, did not receive a
Posted by winter39 on 25th of Jun 2019 at 04:14 pm
sorry, did not receive a text, but just saw one in my email
did not send a text
Posted by matt on 25th of Jun 2019 at 04:16 pm
did not send a text the second time, there's a bug in our system where I can't send both at same time, it's currently being worked on, so to save time I sent an email. I figured people would be looking at email. that SMS bug will be fixed today
Thanks Matt --I did put
Posted by winter39 on 25th of Jun 2019 at 04:23 pm
Thanks Matt --I did put in just the SPY trade (1/2 position)since I did not get a text; next time will look at my email. Appreciate your work.
here's trade on the table
Posted by matt on 25th of Jun 2019 at 04:28 pm
here's trade on the table
I'm not home at the
Posted by matt on 25th of Jun 2019 at 07:31 pm
I'm not home at the moment strike price is 266 not 272, price is correct for the 266 one
OK Matt, For now I
Posted by retirefire on 25th of Jun 2019 at 03:34 pm
OK Matt, For now I go with system and statistically it plays well over time. Will look for signal just so I'm with the program and I see how it flows. Thanks
yep, otherwise this is a
Posted by matt on 25th of Jun 2019 at 03:54 pm
yep, otherwise this is a higher risk trade, and we have a sym break on the intra day time frame, doesn't mean it won't work out. Lot of news later this week with G20 etc