SPY system could go back long today

    Posted by matt on 23rd of May 2019 at 12:24 pm

    Currently the conditions are being triggered for the SPY system to go back long via the QE BTS sub system.  that condition will go away if the market rallies off the lows, so have to wait and see. 

    no trades

    Posted by matt on 23rd of May 2019 at 04:00 pm

    no trades

    if there's a SPY trade

    Posted by matt on 23rd of May 2019 at 02:37 pm

    if there's a SPY trade today regarding options not sure if I'm going to use the July 19th Strike or the Aug 16th Strike? generally I always try to go out 2 months or a little over that, and July 19th is just under 2 months.  

    just for example:  looking for 90 delta's:  for July one would buy the 255 Strike, which is about 25 points in the money, and trades for $27.4

    however moving out to Aug 16th, one would need to buy the 245 Strike, which trades for $37.6.  anyway quite a difference by moving out to Aug

    use the July. very few

    Posted by pep8261 on 23rd of May 2019 at 02:58 pm

    use the July. very few spy trades last long enough (or rather are in drawdown long enough)  to justify the added risk premium.

    thanks.  If one did Aug

    Posted by matt on 23rd of May 2019 at 03:09 pm

    thanks.  If one did Aug I would go a lower delta maybe 85 or something.  Now if one was doing SPX options, which I do in the fund, they have weekly options which make it easy, I just do July 31st.  Those options trade for $370 though, too rich for most of you guys used to spending  a few hundred to a few thousand for an option vs $37,000 for one

    avg hold time for that

    Posted by matt on 23rd of May 2019 at 03:12 pm

    avg hold time for that trade is 16 days

    however there are a handful of trades that last around 2 months: for example 10/9/14 - 12/11/14,   11/3/16 - 12/30/16,  12/28/12 - 2/22/13

    2/4/10 - 4/29/10 is the longest at near 3 months

    Summer can be slow -

    Posted by skyhansen on 23rd of May 2019 at 03:13 pm

    Summer can be slow - might extend the trade?



    yeah the option I guess

    Posted by matt on 23rd of May 2019 at 03:17 pm

    yeah the option I guess would be if the trade looked like it was going to turn into one of those trending ones, exit the option and immediately enter a new one.  I will know if that condition occurs, it generally occurs when the trade is held long enough via the momentum indicator that a 34 Stochastic hold condition kicks in over 80% and then holds the trade until the 34 Stochastic falls below 80%. Anyway for something like that to kick in the market would need to bottom while in the trade and held and of course held long enough for the 34 Stochastic to get over 80% (would need quite a rally), I'll know when that is occurring so that we can act on it if we need to

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