yes, and a 1st entry on the much higher probability sub system
the QE BTS. Remember the Trend sub system carried the highest
risk draw down as I pointed out last week. So more than likely
Trend takes a 2nd entry and QE takes a 1st. I have an email
prepared for later if this holds true near the close
on SPY system that one first system will def be taking a second
entry, however the other system that I said would take a 1st entry,
it's hit or miss here, if we bounce more off the lows that
condition will go away, so as always I probably can't confirm to
near close. anyway SPY options trade for 15 min after the cash
market closes
Hello everyone,regarding the SPY Pro system, the Trend System is
taking a
2nd entrytoday at the close via the SSO ETF. For options we'll buy
two SPY call options of the July 19th, 257 strike. I
discussed that the Trend system had the most potential for draw
down out of all the new systems, and we are seeing that some here.
However it's part of the new SPY because it does fill in
trades in history.
Also the QE BPTS sub system will be taking a
first entry, this is a higher probability system that is harder to trigger
than the Trend above, which I stated last week had more risk and
draw down. For the QE BTS we will buy SPY ETF for the first
entry and for options we'll buy the July 19th, 250 call
option.
In summary open trades: Trend Trade a 1st and 2nd entry,
and a 1st entry on QE BTS. Also note, SPY options trade until
4:15, or 15 min after the cash market close.
remember on the new SPY Pro system multiple systems can be long
or short at the same time in multiple entries. We trade each
sub system separately.
Additional Information:
I'm keeping a record of these in a table in the
SPY System section. For ETF Trades I do 10K for each entry with 1st entry
as SPY, 2nd as SSO, and 3rd as UPRO. For options I typically
buy options with an expiration about 2 months out. First entry
higher risk trades I typically buy options with 90 delta which is
very deep in the money and moves 90% relative to SPY. For 2nd
and 3rd entries I'll typically target the 80 and 70 delta range,
with sometimes a 60 delta. For VERY oversold plays and very
high probability sub systems like the CCI trade, for 1st entries I
typically not go as deep as a 90 delta, but instead target around a
70 delta for the 1st entries
here's how the option trades are looking so far. Again,
who knows where they'll end up by the time the trades close, but
that's where they are at the moment profit/loss wise
I think the market still probably does some sort of ABC or
triangle during the correction so odds still favor possible the
lost being tested or taken out before the lows are in, which would
mean these would come down again
I have a big options spreadsheet that I'm working on for past
option trades history. I will share when I complete it
enough, it's a huge undertaking though, as looking up past option
data is very tedious and time intensive. And the only way I
have to do it is through Think Or Swim's Think Back settings that
has historical data. The results look very good, something
like 40 - 80% annual returns being very conservative on capital.
again it's gonna take me a while to flesh this out before I can
share it
also if you were to trade SPX options instead you get the 6040
futures tax benefit where 60% of your returns are taxed at long
term cap gains vs short term. I don't show SPX options because for
most of you they are quite expensive typically about 10 times
higher, but if one has the capital to do them they make more sense
over SPY options because of the tax benefits. For example where the
SPY options with a 90 delta might be trading at $35, the SPX
equivalent option might be trading at $350, so $3500 for one SPY
option vs $35000 for one SPX option.
yes, and a 1st entry
Any chance the SPY taking a second entry today
Posted by matt on 13th of May 2019 at 01:15 pm
yes, and a 1st entry on the much higher probability sub system the QE BTS. Remember the Trend sub system carried the highest risk draw down as I pointed out last week. So more than likely Trend takes a 2nd entry and QE takes a 1st. I have an email prepared for later if this holds true near the close
on SPY system that one
Posted by matt on 13th of May 2019 at 03:50 pm
on SPY system that one first system will def be taking a second entry, however the other system that I said would take a 1st entry, it's hit or miss here, if we bounce more off the lows that condition will go away, so as always I probably can't confirm to near close. anyway SPY options trade for 15 min after the cash market closes
Have you figured out a
Posted by lamb on 13th of May 2019 at 03:58 pm
Have you figured out a spy strike , so we can at least get ready , if u pull the trigger
email is out
Posted by matt on 13th of May 2019 at 03:59 pm
email is out
the email in case you
Posted by matt on 13th of May 2019 at 04:05 pm
the email in case you didn't see it
Hello everyone,regarding the SPY Pro system, the Trend System is taking a 2nd entry today at the close via the SSO ETF. For options we'll buy two SPY call options of the July 19th, 257 strike. I discussed that the Trend system had the most potential for draw down out of all the new systems, and we are seeing that some here. However it's part of the new SPY because it does fill in trades in history.
Also the QE BPTS sub system will be taking a first entry , this is a higher probability system that is harder to trigger than the Trend above, which I stated last week had more risk and draw down. For the QE BTS we will buy SPY ETF for the first entry and for options we'll buy the July 19th, 250 call option.
In summary open trades: Trend Trade a 1st and 2nd entry, and a 1st entry on QE BTS. Also note, SPY options trade until 4:15, or 15 min after the cash market close.
remember on the new SPY Pro system multiple systems can be long or short at the same time in multiple entries. We trade each sub system separately.
Additional Information:
I'm keeping a record of these in a table in the SPY System section . For ETF Trades I do 10K for each entry with 1st entry as SPY, 2nd as SSO, and 3rd as UPRO. For options I typically buy options with an expiration about 2 months out. First entry higher risk trades I typically buy options with 90 delta which is very deep in the money and moves 90% relative to SPY. For 2nd and 3rd entries I'll typically target the 80 and 70 delta range, with sometimes a 60 delta. For VERY oversold plays and very high probability sub systems like the CCI trade, for 1st entries I typically not go as deep as a 90 delta, but instead target around a 70 delta for the 1st entries
thx matt as i did
Posted by morton7 on 13th of May 2019 at 04:17 pm
thx matt as i did not get a chance to check email.
table
Posted by matt on 13th of May 2019 at 04:19 pm
table
here's how the option trades
Posted by matt on 14th of May 2019 at 12:05 pm
here's how the option trades are looking so far. Again, who knows where they'll end up by the time the trades close, but that's where they are at the moment profit/loss wise
I think the market still probably does some sort of ABC or triangle during the correction so odds still favor possible the lost being tested or taken out before the lows are in, which would mean these would come down again
Matt - Why do you
Posted by shecar on 14th of May 2019 at 01:29 pm
Matt - Why do you like the options vs ETFs on SPY system? What are the pros/cons?
mainly capital reasons less capital
Posted by matt on 14th of May 2019 at 02:09 pm
mainly capital reasons less capital for a higher % return.
I have a big options
Posted by matt on 14th of May 2019 at 03:12 pm
I have a big options spreadsheet that I'm working on for past option trades history. I will share when I complete it enough, it's a huge undertaking though, as looking up past option data is very tedious and time intensive. And the only way I have to do it is through Think Or Swim's Think Back settings that has historical data. The results look very good, something like 40 - 80% annual returns being very conservative on capital. again it's gonna take me a while to flesh this out before I can share it
also if you were to
Posted by matt on 14th of May 2019 at 02:14 pm
also if you were to trade SPX options instead you get the 6040 futures tax benefit where 60% of your returns are taxed at long term cap gains vs short term. I don't show SPX options because for most of you they are quite expensive typically about 10 times higher, but if one has the capital to do them they make more sense over SPY options because of the tax benefits. For example where the SPY options with a 90 delta might be trading at $35, the SPX equivalent option might be trading at $350, so $3500 for one SPY option vs $35000 for one SPX option.
ok makes sense, thank you.
Posted by shecar on 14th of May 2019 at 03:20 pm
ok makes sense, thank you.
will the second entry be
Posted by breck123 on 13th of May 2019 at 01:26 pm
will the second entry be the SSO for 2 options