iaranger - I discussed that in my last weekend newsletter, Steve
will never discuss it in his. I also discussed it on the blog
here quite a few times responding to questions like yours and
others and I updated the Long Term tools section, read what I wrote
here last time this was asked and go to that section.
It has not flipped yet, but as I state, it's now looking for
an opportunity. At the very moment it would take a close below Oct
lows to flip it red. Otherwise what will likely happen is that it
will flip sometime in the new few months hopefully on a lower high
bounce that then peters out. The slope of the BPT MA moving
average is now negative. Remember topping is a process and
it's hard to flip that, it will never ever catch tops. Even in Jan
31 2008 when that flipped the SPX was 12% off the highs, it doesn't
look like that from the chart because the rest of the 2008 declines
were so strong that it flattens that out, still a great exit since
the SPX fell about 50% from the highs. The system is much more
timely at bear market bottoms catching them many times a few weeks
off the lows. But for tops i needs confirmation and it will not
catch them at the highs, always misses them because of needing
confirmation. Very tough to catch tops.
Was hoping to see an
Can you update the 401k paint dry system graph under ...
Posted by iaranger on 12th of Nov 2018 at 11:13 am
Was hoping to see an update on the Paint Dry System the last couple weekends ?
iaranger - I discussed that
Posted by matt on 12th of Nov 2018 at 11:22 am
iaranger - I discussed that in my last weekend newsletter, Steve will never discuss it in his. I also discussed it on the blog here quite a few times responding to questions like yours and others and I updated the Long Term tools section, read what I wrote here last time this was asked and go to that section. It has not flipped yet, but as I state, it's now looking for an opportunity. At the very moment it would take a close below Oct lows to flip it red. Otherwise what will likely happen is that it will flip sometime in the new few months hopefully on a lower high bounce that then peters out. The slope of the BPT MA moving average is now negative. Remember topping is a process and it's hard to flip that, it will never ever catch tops. Even in Jan 31 2008 when that flipped the SPX was 12% off the highs, it doesn't look like that from the chart because the rest of the 2008 declines were so strong that it flattens that out, still a great exit since the SPX fell about 50% from the highs. The system is much more timely at bear market bottoms catching them many times a few weeks off the lows. But for tops i needs confirmation and it will not catch them at the highs, always misses them because of needing confirmation. Very tough to catch tops.
https://breakpointtrades.com/long_term_tools/401_K_long_term/
read what i wrote at the top of that section, nothing has changed since that
Thanks I missed seeing it
Posted by iaranger on 12th of Nov 2018 at 11:23 am
Thanks I missed seeing it last weekends update My bad Again Thanks
I updated my post with
Posted by matt on 12th of Nov 2018 at 11:29 am
I updated my post with some more info and a chart, refresh the blog to see the update post