3309 Drysdale Ct
Edwardsville, IL 62025
SPY system takes 3rd entry, and QE LE 1/2 takes 2nd entry
clearly the ES system has kicked the SPY system's ass this time,
the ES system hasn't been short but it's been flat this whole time
as you can see on the chart, the left side has all the longs on one
chart and the right side has all the shorts. really sucks that the
SPY system didn't do the same thing as the ES system this time.
I'm now wondering when the ES system is going to go long?
spy system/401k paint dry- would you consider incorporating or
adjusting your current spy and 401k paint system dry due to ES
system better proficiency? Have you back tested longer term
ES system results?
401K system you have to look at it from the proper perspective.
It went long in Mar 31st 20009 and stayed long all those
years, I said that typically exhaustion conditions come late in
bull market cycles 70 - 90% of the way through, I said that this
time after it came out of the exhaustion that there probably wasn't
much left to the bull market, the hope is this is all some
large wave 4 and that the market still makes one minor new 5th wave
high or something, BUT all the big trending moves wave 3's are
done! We won't see any 2017's and 2014 type moves. This
whole move down is still possible some sort of ABC where we had A
in place at Feb lows, B highs and now C down. Remember that that
was what I kept saying over and over in early Feb was that I
expected the market to have a decent bounce but then ultimately
retest the lows again. But you of course know what happens,
the market rallies enough that you start doubting your first
analysis (which is generally the right analysis) anyway that C down
is now playing out that I talked about and was adamant about
anyway. Really the two scenarios I discussed in early Feb are
still what's likely unfolding, either this is wave C down now
of a wave 4 and once done the market goes on to make one more new
high but probably a minor new high and that's it for the bull
market, not some extended move higher. Or The highs are in
and bull market is done. Even if the bull market is done,
once this move down is over there will be a decent rally that will
form a lower high but it will still be a decent size rally.
What it will do is cause the longer term moving averages to
roll over and flatten out. It will be the that next low
higher from where a real bear market would begin. That's also
where the 401K system would likely exit. Remember that 401K
system uses a bunch of parameters, but one of the main things is an
exotic moving average (sort of an exponential hull type MA with a
derivative sort of that needs to slope to go negative in order to
go on a sell signal. Again think about it guys, because it's
a monthly chart, it takes time for that MA slope to flatten out
(after the huge bull market moves of the prior years) and for its
slope to go negative. The scenarios I laid out above would
give the TIME needed for that to roll over and go negative.
Remember I've always said that 401K is not really so much of
a system but a long term market trend guide. I've always said
that it never catches tops, it almost misses tops by 10% or so as
topping is more of a process. Market bottoms are different however
they tend to be sharp and fast, so it tends to catch market bottoms
a few weeks off the lows, however Market tops it's always a bit
late. However that said if it's able to catch 80 - 90% of the
long term bull cycles while staying out of say 80 - 90% of a bear
market down move, that's fine.
remember everyone is always emotional. If the system gets
out a bit early, and the market rallies up for a few months, people
bitch, and so when it came out of the exhaustion condition I knew
there was a possibility t hat the market could still go back down
in that wave C, and of course people would bitch, you really can't
win. If it misses the highs, people bitch. That was
sort of why I had my rant on Friday, with these systems I really
can't win unless they are 100% perfect, someone is always unhappy
and is why I had the thoughts to just focus on newsletters and
trading tools (like I gave you recently with the MA Config tool) as
it's a lot less emotion to deal with.
anyway I'll discuss the my thoughts in the weekend
Your 401K Paint Dry system is better than having a managed all
long account that charges 1% and does not adjust much for market
Why is there a short and a long ES System and why are they not
combined like the SPY System
They are combined. That is just a workspace showing the long
subsystems and short subsystems.
Is the 3rd entry in UPRO?
Sorry, I answered my own question looking at your 3/19/18 email
via the 2nd entry.
Thanks. Have a good weekend!
yes or whatever you think a 3rd entry should be, call options
etc. SPY call and puts trade for 15 min after the
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