yep - and the systems will be buying dips. Not that the
systems are smarter than we are, but when MA's are pointing
straight up on daily charts, you don't get major gut wrenching
crashes from that, baring some catastrophe out of left field.
All the huge market sell offs occur when the MA's have
flattened out some for a while. Yes you can get get exhaustion
tops, but what happens is you get a pullback initially and another
bounce to form a lower high, some sideways action that causes the
MA's to flatten out, then you big pullback.
Not everyone is a short term day trader, Steve is not managing
swing long term positions in SPY and SSO etc and he never will,
I don't either.
However at times I do try to be definitive when I think the
evidence is there and it's appropriate. Still you can't just
take my words as gospel and not use stops and throw caution into
the wind. You have to manage what you're trading and your
time frame.
I know some of you would like us to give our opinion more often
on the bigger picture and I think I was pretty definitive over the
last few weekend newsletters my thoughts on the bigger picture. To
me when the markets broke the May highs a few weeks ago that was
significant, as the sideways consolidation has lasted 14 months,
that builds up energy. Lots of folks were on the sidelines,
also bears were willing to take shorts here, but when those levels
were taken out, from a technical perspective it was significant.
Yes I know the arguments about how the market wouldn't be
here if it wasn't for the easy money Fed and central banks around
the world, but to me I just focus on the charts. What I'm not
going to do is be bearish or try to tell you the market is
overbought while sitting on the sidelines while the SPX goes up 300
points or wherever it goes to. I've know ultra bears who have
been bearish for 7 years missing the whole uptrend In a 5th
wave move it can extend or be a shorter move, basically anything
goes.
Now it remains to be seen how long this bull market will last.
If you asked me for my opinion, that that it matters, my
guess would be sometime into 2017, spring time maybe.
Obviously I don't expect it to go up and up and up, there
will be some nice pullbacks and scares along the way.
anyway back to trading or working basically
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yep - and the systems
Choppiness Index and VIX level
Posted by matt on 22nd of Jul 2016 at 02:24 pm
yep - and the systems will be buying dips. Not that the systems are smarter than we are, but when MA's are pointing straight up on daily charts, you don't get major gut wrenching crashes from that, baring some catastrophe out of left field. All the huge market sell offs occur when the MA's have flattened out some for a while. Yes you can get get exhaustion tops, but what happens is you get a pullback initially and another bounce to form a lower high, some sideways action that causes the MA's to flatten out, then you big pullback.
Not everyone is a short term day trader, Steve is not managing swing long term positions in SPY and SSO etc and he never will, I don't either.
However at times I do try to be definitive when I think the evidence is there and it's appropriate. Still you can't just take my words as gospel and not use stops and throw caution into the wind. You have to manage what you're trading and your time frame.
I know some of you would like us to give our opinion more often on the bigger picture and I think I was pretty definitive over the last few weekend newsletters my thoughts on the bigger picture. To me when the markets broke the May highs a few weeks ago that was significant, as the sideways consolidation has lasted 14 months, that builds up energy. Lots of folks were on the sidelines, also bears were willing to take shorts here, but when those levels were taken out, from a technical perspective it was significant. Yes I know the arguments about how the market wouldn't be here if it wasn't for the easy money Fed and central banks around the world, but to me I just focus on the charts. What I'm not going to do is be bearish or try to tell you the market is overbought while sitting on the sidelines while the SPX goes up 300 points or wherever it goes to. I've know ultra bears who have been bearish for 7 years missing the whole uptrend In a 5th wave move it can extend or be a shorter move, basically anything goes.
Now it remains to be seen how long this bull market will last. If you asked me for my opinion, that that it matters, my guess would be sometime into 2017, spring time maybe. Obviously I don't expect it to go up and up and up, there will be some nice pullbacks and scares along the way.
anyway back to trading or working basically