Posted by sbaxman111 on 14th of Jun 2016 at 12:54 pm
I don't trade options either - I just look for different
pieces of technical data that, when used together, have shown me
over time to identify potential places that have a high probability
for where shorter-term reversions take place within the current
overall trend.
As I pointed out in a recent post about the relationship of
RUT and RSI-4 levels, above or below 90% & 10%, $TYX is now
trading with an RSI-4 value below 10%. This is a place where
technical reversals have taken place that then move up to touch ,
or go past the 9 ema line in almost every such pattern. Currently
the RSI-14 indicator is also extremely overbought at less than a
30% reading.
The PPO-ADX "squeeze pattern for TYX that I look at is also
in place for a possible reversal as the ADX-7 is over the 50 line.
The ADX-2 indicator is also overextended and close to a 100 reading
at the current time - a subtle sign of an extreme short-term
condition.
Of course the wild card(s) here is the Fed announcement
tomorrow afternoon, and the upcoming Brexit vote. These two
"outside" forces are enough to disturb the more typical technical
responses to extreme overbought or oversold conditions. So,
certainly some caution is warranted before taking a trade
here.
And I just always so look forward to the CNBC microscopic
minutia analysis of how many words, commas, and periods have
changed in the latest Fed statement....as if the Fed's recent
history has really shown that they know how to keep the economy out
of serious trouble. I just don't happen to personally think that
$10 trillion of negative rate gov't bonds worldwide - now
highlighted by a -0.01 rate on the German 10 yr Bund this morning -
is a reflection of overall Central Bank economic
competence.
With an RSI-2 value of just 1.77% at the moment, the NDX is
extremely oversold - but with FED mumbo jumbo on the horizon, it
could certainly go even lower and for longer than the current 5 day
high to low RSI-2 pattern. I have seen a 0.01 RSI-2 reading over a
13 consecutive day high to low pattern in my historical data thanks
to such "outside" forces influencing the markets.
I don't trade options either
Question for BPT, sbaxman, or anyone: what is your view ...
Posted by sbaxman111 on 14th of Jun 2016 at 12:54 pm
I don't trade options either - I just look for different pieces of technical data that, when used together, have shown me over time to identify potential places that have a high probability for where shorter-term reversions take place within the current overall trend.
As I pointed out in a recent post about the relationship of RUT and RSI-4 levels, above or below 90% & 10%, $TYX is now trading with an RSI-4 value below 10%. This is a place where technical reversals have taken place that then move up to touch , or go past the 9 ema line in almost every such pattern. Currently the RSI-14 indicator is also extremely overbought at less than a 30% reading.
The PPO-ADX "squeeze pattern for TYX that I look at is also in place for a possible reversal as the ADX-7 is over the 50 line. The ADX-2 indicator is also overextended and close to a 100 reading at the current time - a subtle sign of an extreme short-term condition.
Of course the wild card(s) here is the Fed announcement tomorrow afternoon, and the upcoming Brexit vote. These two "outside" forces are enough to disturb the more typical technical responses to extreme overbought or oversold conditions. So, certainly some caution is warranted before taking a trade here.
And I just always so look forward to the CNBC microscopic minutia analysis of how many words, commas, and periods have changed in the latest Fed statement....as if the Fed's recent history has really shown that they know how to keep the economy out of serious trouble. I just don't happen to personally think that $10 trillion of negative rate gov't bonds worldwide - now highlighted by a -0.01 rate on the German 10 yr Bund this morning - is a reflection of overall Central Bank economic competence.
With an RSI-2 value of just 1.77% at the moment, the NDX is extremely oversold - but with FED mumbo jumbo on the horizon, it could certainly go even lower and for longer than the current 5 day high to low RSI-2 pattern. I have seen a 0.01 RSI-2 reading over a 13 consecutive day high to low pattern in my historical data thanks to such "outside" forces influencing the markets.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$TYX&p=D&yr=1&mn=8&dy=0&id=p13121850816&a=351408882&listNum=1