Just found this article on the "first five days" January market
predictor, and was surprised by it. Depending on how far back you
look, it is not such a good predictor, and even has a period in
which it predicted the opposite (1970 to 2012, when the article was
written). I'm not trying to be controversial or contrary; I love to
look at stats and was surprised when I found this article. Note
that author is looking at the DOW, not S&P, since it has so
many years of data. I'd love to hear anyone's reaction or further
information.
Definitely a point of debate, since the DOW is so few stocks. I
think he's just saying more historical data is better, which is
generally true for statistics, but I don't know about this
case.
first 5 days, see annotations on the image bottom left I took
those from Stocktraders Almanac. That shows if the SPX is
positive the first 5 days, which won't be the case this time
otherwise I'm dealing with medical issues today as Steve may
have alluded to, with neck and back
Just found this article on
Posted by frtaylor on 4th of Jan 2016 at 10:14 am
Just found this article on the "first five days" January market predictor, and was surprised by it. Depending on how far back you look, it is not such a good predictor, and even has a period in which it predicted the opposite (1970 to 2012, when the article was written). I'm not trying to be controversial or contrary; I love to look at stats and was surprised when I found this article. Note that author is looking at the DOW, not S&P, since it has so many years of data. I'd love to hear anyone's reaction or further information.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-first-five-days-of-january-indicator-2012-01-11
I want all studies on
Posted by a_l_ on 4th of Jan 2016 at 10:22 am
I want all studies on broader indices than the dow.
Me too. But for really
Posted by frtaylor on 4th of Jan 2016 at 10:32 am
Me too. But for really long term data, only the DOW goes back 100+ years.
Also not sure why data
Posted by a_l_ on 4th of Jan 2016 at 10:35 am
Also not sure why data earlier than the S&P would be as important on this study.
Definitely a point of debate,
Posted by frtaylor on 4th of Jan 2016 at 10:38 am
Definitely a point of debate, since the DOW is so few stocks. I think he's just saying more historical data is better, which is generally true for statistics, but I don't know about this case.
In any case, the study
Posted by a_l_ on 4th of Jan 2016 at 10:40 am
In any case, the study should match the instrument you trade.
The January barometer is about
Posted by steve on 4th of Jan 2016 at 10:27 am
The January barometer is about 90% but not sure about the stats on first 5 days. However, I'd focus on the more recent data since 1950.
Trading days for January. Today
Posted by EdZ on 4th of Jan 2016 at 10:38 am
Trading days for January. Today normally down and next day up.
first 5 days, see annotations
Posted by matt on 4th of Jan 2016 at 10:32 am
first 5 days, see annotations on the image bottom left I took those from Stocktraders Almanac. That shows if the SPX is positive the first 5 days, which won't be the case this time
otherwise I'm dealing with medical issues today as Steve may have alluded to, with neck and back
Sorry you're having back/neck problems!
Posted by frtaylor on 4th of Jan 2016 at 10:34 am
Sorry you're having back/neck problems! God, do I ever hate back pain!