Keep this in mind if you are planning to stay long over the
weekend ... This could put the market in "idiot mode" comes
Monday and make a schizo on meth look rational !!! Crimea will hold
a referendum on Sunday to join Russia ... If this goes through, as
it most likely will, don't be surprised to see Russian tanks
rolling over the whole peninsula comes Monday and having Ukrainian
bases really taken over in Crimea. This is most likely
why Putin put everything on hold on it's first
move and backed off quickly at the beginning, knowing this
vote would be coming soon ... once the vote pass, they
will use this to take it over legally and probably started issuing
Russian passport quickly to make harder to change course ...
the West and Ukraine already said they won't recognize it ... so be
ready and have a plan .. My guess is we could see some serious
volatility next week just on this alone ... markets don't like
uncertainty, and more so military uncertainty that involves super
power.
Like Frank Underwood said it ... Democracy is so overrated
;)
On the back of that (althought my opinion is that the decision
for the split of Ukraine has already been taken and the US and EU
Officals threats to Russia is just about TV time) there are some
very interesting opportunities in Russian equities and fixed
income developing (banking bonds with BBB names trading at 6.5%
yield to maturity) and corporate names trading at 0.5 P/B.
Crimea : Referendum this Sunday
Posted by mla127 on 12th of Mar 2014 at 12:21 am
Keep this in mind if you are planning to stay long over the weekend ... This could put the market in "idiot mode" comes Monday and make a schizo on meth look rational !!! Crimea will hold a referendum on Sunday to join Russia ... If this goes through, as it most likely will, don't be surprised to see Russian tanks rolling over the whole peninsula comes Monday and having Ukrainian bases really taken over in Crimea. This is most likely why Putin put everything on hold on it's first move and backed off quickly at the beginning, knowing this vote would be coming soon ... once the vote pass, they will use this to take it over legally and probably started issuing Russian passport quickly to make harder to change course ... the West and Ukraine already said they won't recognize it ... so be ready and have a plan .. My guess is we could see some serious volatility next week just on this alone ... markets don't like uncertainty, and more so military uncertainty that involves super power.
Like Frank Underwood said it ... Democracy is so overrated ;)
You can hedge or short
Posted by hedge on 12th of Mar 2014 at 10:38 am
You can hedge or short Russia with Daily Russia Bear 3x Shares (RUSS)
thanks for the info. i'm wondering though if all of this is
Posted by morton13 on 12th of Mar 2014 at 09:11 am
being priced in this week?
Thanks Mia for the summary
Posted by steve on 12th of Mar 2014 at 09:06 am
Thanks Mia for the summary below regarding Crimea
On the back of that
Posted by ckats on 12th of Mar 2014 at 08:39 am
On the back of that (althought my opinion is that the decision for the split of Ukraine has already been taken and the US and EU Officals threats to Russia is just about TV time) there are some very interesting opportunities in Russian equities and fixed income developing (banking bonds with BBB names trading at 6.5% yield to maturity) and corporate names trading at 0.5 P/B.
Sudetenland
Posted by skyfish on 12th of Mar 2014 at 02:11 am
This is so Sudetenland.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sudetenland