Hello everyone, as you know, a while back I developed a long
term system based on a monthly chart of the S&P 500, it's
affectionately called the 'paint dry' system because the trades can
last for years. I designed it not for traders, but for family
and friends, neighbors who do not trade the market and will never
trade the market, but want to do better than buy and hold.
The system is designed to keep you in entire bull markets but
have you out for bear markets, for example the system went to cash
in Jan 2008 and then went back long on Mar 31st 2009 just 3
weeks off the bear market bottom and is still long almost 5 years
later. My Long only version of the system, from 1962 to
present your money grew by 289 times the original investment vs 30
times buy and hold. For my long/short version your money
increased by 534 times vs 30 times buy and hold - see the attached
tables where the trade and stats are listed.
Currently the system has been in this long trade for 1794 days,
the average is 1235 days, however the trade from Oct 2002 to Jan
2008 lasted 1918 days, while the long from Aug 31st 1984 to Aug
31st 1984 lasted 2191 days.
HOWEVER the system is going to go to cash at the end of this
month because of a technical situation that has occurred with the
market. It has to do with price closing for 20 months
consecutively above the 8 MA along with the Willams% indicator
above 90%. The system will be going to cash at the close of
this month and will then look to buy a pullback. The last
time the system did this was in Mar 31st 1998, it then bought the
sharp pullback and went back long on Aug 31st 1998 (see the 3rd
chart). Over the weekend I will discuss in more detail what
this technical signal is. Do NOT take this is a sell short
signal right now, and also the previous time this occurred the
market stayed out for 3 - 5 months before having a hard pullback,
if history holds true then maybe this portends to our market having
a strong correction either in May or fall time frame for general
seasonality.
I will discuss this briefly in tonight's newsletter, however I
will discuss it in more detail on the weekend in a separate
newsletter.
Here's a funny story, last week about mid day I was on the phone
with a BPT member and I got a knock at the door, I glanced and it
was a guy in a business suit. Well I instantly think a
salesman do I didn't want to answer the door, but I was also on the
phone so I didn't answer. Anyway the guy left a brochure and
turns out he was a financial adviser LOL walking the neighborhood
trying to solicit clients.
Man wish I had answered the door, would have been fund, I would
have invited him in, shown him my two workstations with multi
monitors and power sit to stand desks etc
then I could have asked him, so what would you do for me? Buy
and hold? Then give him my 401K paint dry system and say
here, if you follow this for your clients you would out perform
your peers who buy and hold ha ha.
Anyway just think about it- my system would have had you
out of the market in April 2000 and got you back in long in late
Oct 2002, so you would have avoided the whole tech bubble crash.
The system had you long until Jan 2008 and had you out of the
horrific bear market decline in 2008 and early 2009 and got you
back in in March 2009 and would still have you long, well until
Friday anyway - so think about it while everyone who just bought
and held through the 2008 bear market just back to even late last
year, you would have been up over 200%, and the same thing avoiding
the tech crash. For long term holders, if you can avoid those
major bear markets, your money compounds fast. Your financial
adviser will tell you, just buy and hold, it always comes back, yes
it does by why lose all that time, why make it take years to get
back to break even when you could have doubled or tripled your
money by going back in near bear market lows.
Long Term 401K paint dry system is going to cash end of month
Posted by matt on 26th of Feb 2014 at 05:14 pm
Hello everyone, as you know, a while back I developed a long term system based on a monthly chart of the S&P 500, it's affectionately called the 'paint dry' system because the trades can last for years. I designed it not for traders, but for family and friends, neighbors who do not trade the market and will never trade the market, but want to do better than buy and hold. The system is designed to keep you in entire bull markets but have you out for bear markets, for example the system went to cash in Jan 2008 and then went back long on Mar 31st 2009 just 3 weeks off the bear market bottom and is still long almost 5 years later. My Long only version of the system, from 1962 to present your money grew by 289 times the original investment vs 30 times buy and hold. For my long/short version your money increased by 534 times vs 30 times buy and hold - see the attached tables where the trade and stats are listed.
Currently the system has been in this long trade for 1794 days, the average is 1235 days, however the trade from Oct 2002 to Jan 2008 lasted 1918 days, while the long from Aug 31st 1984 to Aug 31st 1984 lasted 2191 days.
HOWEVER the system is going to go to cash at the end of this month because of a technical situation that has occurred with the market. It has to do with price closing for 20 months consecutively above the 8 MA along with the Willams% indicator above 90%. The system will be going to cash at the close of this month and will then look to buy a pullback. The last time the system did this was in Mar 31st 1998, it then bought the sharp pullback and went back long on Aug 31st 1998 (see the 3rd chart). Over the weekend I will discuss in more detail what this technical signal is. Do NOT take this is a sell short signal right now, and also the previous time this occurred the market stayed out for 3 - 5 months before having a hard pullback, if history holds true then maybe this portends to our market having a strong correction either in May or fall time frame for general seasonality.
I will discuss this briefly in tonight's newsletter, however I will discuss it in more detail on the weekend in a separate newsletter.
401 k paint dry with UPRO
Posted by mohane on 28th of Feb 2014 at 12:18 pm
I was just checking the charts ...UPRO started in JUN / 2009 i guess, which was trading 15$ at that time.
If I had invested 10k in UPRO back in 2009, it gained 80 points now , that would have been 53k just in profits.... wow this is great paint dry system
Mohan E
Coule you apply the system to Gold ?
Posted by sabinemarc on 27th of Feb 2014 at 01:06 pm
Here's a funny story, last
Posted by matt on 27th of Feb 2014 at 11:46 am
Here's a funny story, last week about mid day I was on the phone with a BPT member and I got a knock at the door, I glanced and it was a guy in a business suit. Well I instantly think a salesman do I didn't want to answer the door, but I was also on the phone so I didn't answer. Anyway the guy left a brochure and turns out he was a financial adviser LOL walking the neighborhood trying to solicit clients.
Man wish I had answered the door, would have been fund, I would have invited him in, shown him my two workstations with multi monitors and power sit to stand desks etc
then I could have asked him, so what would you do for me? Buy and hold? Then give him my 401K paint dry system and say here, if you follow this for your clients you would out perform your peers who buy and hold ha ha.
Anyway just think about it- my system would have had you out of the market in April 2000 and got you back in long in late Oct 2002, so you would have avoided the whole tech bubble crash. The system had you long until Jan 2008 and had you out of the horrific bear market decline in 2008 and early 2009 and got you back in in March 2009 and would still have you long, well until Friday anyway - so think about it while everyone who just bought and held through the 2008 bear market just back to even late last year, you would have been up over 200%, and the same thing avoiding the tech crash. For long term holders, if you can avoid those major bear markets, your money compounds fast. Your financial adviser will tell you, just buy and hold, it always comes back, yes it does by why lose all that time, why make it take years to get back to break even when you could have doubled or tripled your money by going back in near bear market lows.
You must have a nice
Posted by smoothy on 28th of Feb 2014 at 11:14 am
You must have a nice house Matt. Why else would he be there? :-)
Or give him a copy of the world's top-performing ETF YTD
Posted by cmunny on 27th of Feb 2014 at 12:10 pm
I sure wish I had
Posted by wowten on 27th of Feb 2014 at 12:02 pm
I sure wish I had been a bpt member back in 2000 ...would have saved me a lot of
$$$$.
Wait, wait...BPT was not in
Posted by vicky on 28th of Feb 2014 at 12:16 pm
Wait, wait...BPT was not in the market back in 2000, and paint dry is 'optimized' to work with those ol' data, ex post ! :)
thats funny i was thinking the same thing !$!$!
Posted by morton13 on 27th of Feb 2014 at 02:21 pm
hahahaha
Posted by mla127 on 27th of Feb 2014 at 11:50 am
Now this is funny !!!!
it was probably Howard W.
Posted by roger on 27th of Feb 2014 at 11:49 am
it was probably Howard W. {{LOL}}
Avg Mid-Term Election Year vs. Paint Dry System
Posted by larstrader on 27th of Feb 2014 at 09:16 am
I find it amazing how your system's sell signal coincides with the average Mid-Term Election year chart. "Sell in May" may actually work in 2014!