3309 Drysdale Ct
Edwardsville, IL 62025
don't know if this comes into play or not
spy is pulling back.
Note if (will be a surprise) SPY closes today below 157.22 then
it will be a bearish engulfing candle.
Won't rule out a reversal that strong, but that would be quite
strong, and definitely bearish. More likely, you'll see key
sectors finally losing their 9ema (XLP, XLU, XLV), while other key
sectors (EWZ, OIH, XLE) getting rejected from strong resistance.
Put the two together and I think if the SPX just leaves a
modest sized topping tail, then a reversal might be at hand.
Lets she the nature and extent of the pullback
what are you Steve??? LOL
Start to ring in my mind. This sure has been an energizer bunny
market-- and on crack!!
looks like Steve Nelson Influence
you got that right
Thanks for the charts... we are either getting ready for an
incredible pop, or drop
sure, could go either way. Crazy that we have been
rallying for 6 months with only multi-day pullbacks, and yet
volatility is piping up? Not a controlled melt-up market,
but one with crashes, snap back rallies and bizarre rotation.
Check out the expanding nature of ATR (daily range).
It's wild alright. And I think the candles only get
bigger on the next move (whatever that may be). A blow-off
top could see 1700, no problem (emerging markets picking up pace);
a drop from here could be equally dramatic as safe havens now look
vulnerable while emerging markets have rallied hard, but right to
i would expect that since the vix is so low, and people dont
think we will go down, that it would drop, but you never know. the
market is a game, and the people on top always win
I think the traders without bias win - for example there is one
guy I'm talking with now on skype, every day he's calling a top,
he's called a top for the last 3 years, I stopped talking to him,
then about 3 months ago he starts hitting me up on Skype calling a
top, I told him nope don't see it and he said I was wrong, well
market made a new high, then he called about 5 more tops. On
the pullback in Early April he said there was no way the market
couldn't go back to new highs, and last week after the last
pullback from the 1597 highs he said there is no way the SPX could
bonce back even to 1560, it was 1540 at the time - well wrong
again. And this morning short term he said it's gonna crash
intra day morning, I said nope bull flag 5 min and I was right.
It drives Steve and I nuts, these guys with these huge bias -
take off the bear goggles and trade what is in front of you (this
applies to gold bugs as well as their bull goggles are even
thicker). Steve and I have seen so many folks get buried and lose
all their money because of bias that affects their trading.
I'm sorry for the rant, it just drives me nuts because I've seen
so many folks hurt by it.
well stated Matt. I'm a recovering perma-bear and it is
quite an effort to reform. The more "work" that you put in
sometimes (reading articles and spending hours trying to confirm
your bias), ends up hurting you more than somebody who doesn't know
or read anything. Also, if you are a determined person, that
also gets in your way. There definitely seems to be a rhythm
to the markets -- and getting in sync to their speed is key.
That person calling for a crash in the morning better have
been hoping for a fake tweet to help their cause, because the
charts were bullish as you stated, and would take hours to even
allow for a reversal (as has since happened). For me, part of
losing the bias was realizing that news is noise, markets move
separately from fundamentals and to try and "think like the algos".
I've got a ways to go -- reading the habits of successful
traders (that you have posted), is worth studying more than
articles from zerohedge and kitco!
indeed i would rather see the rich bankers lose, than the
ordinary working man.
Well said... it is a tough lesson to lose the bias...
unfortunately I haven't completely learned the lesson yet.
Yup ... took me a while to figure it out, too : Bottom
left to top right ... GOOD!
Top right to bottom left ... BAD!
Happy trading to all and down with bias!
~~ j ~~
Nice view Kalinm
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