gdx/Gold

    Posted by alseq on 2nd of Jan 2013 at 10:02 am
    Title: update

    alseq - well - gold metal

    Posted by matt on 2nd of Jan 2013 at 10:18 am

    alseq - well - gold metal update is pretty obvious - it bounce off the 61.8% Fib and downtrend channel a week back, the question at the time was could it be a small flag needing one more slight pullback, but that didn't materialize.

    Otherwise it did bounce off the channel and just over that major Fib.  I've also had gold labeled in an ABC correction and possible major wave (2) pullback - both correction patterns and bullish patterns, which may be playing out.  Gold now needs to take out the downtrend line of the channel, that would be quite positive, it's getting close to the downtrend line of the channel now as it's trading at $1695 (note this chart from Stockcharts.com does not reflect current prices).  And long term 1800 is big time resistance - taking that out basically guarantees new highs coming.  If this wave count is correct then gold should be starting some kind of major wave 3 up as well.  I've also included a daily GLD chart - again note that even with today's move, it's still in the channel, so pulling back soon from the downtrend line would not surprise me -  longer term of course I think GLD and gold will break out and go to new highs - that's always been my stance.

    Regarding GDX, I've been stating how the gold stocks have been out performing relative to the metal lately and that's a positive sign - GDX of course took out its downtrend line on Monday and followed through today, currently it's struggling at the 50 day MA, so that could be an area for it to pullback some.  As you can see the GDX/GLD ratio turned up in mid December and I pointed out the MACD kiss long on GDX a couple weeks back saying that you could go long GDX with a stop below the 43.71 lows - I know some of you did this so congrats on your purchase!

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