hope is not a strategy..well got a few days to make up me mind
if I want to become A member why where most guys going long when
the market did'nt move during the voting..sure we are due for a
bounce but why the need to be early..
I'm sure there are many who went short last week, but they just
didn't post it. There were several permabulls a week and a half ago
who were making fun of shorts. Saying things like buy every little
dip even though we were close to resistance levels. Getting too
cocky basically. Why would shorts post their opinions then? Just
let the bulls have their fun, while ignoring them and taking your
positions.
The market is very stretched to the downside. With the market
stretched so much to the downside, how much more energy can it have
if it breaks the pivot support? Anything's possible, and we could
be down another 2.5% tomorrow. But, when the market is so stretch
in one direction, that's when a strong snap back rally can occur.
Maybe we get a false break, and then an oversold bounce. Any bounce
would face very stiff resistance levels. A lot of technical damage
has been done. I would look at the 200 ma and broken downtrend line
to act as resistance on any oversold bounce. There are also a lot
of longs who bought this week and last week who will sell into any
bounce. They're likely hoping the market bounces soon, so they can
cut their losses at those resistance levels.
The top traders trade em both ways. It's all about managing your
positions and risk. Imo, this is not a good time to initiate new
short positions, just like a week and a half ago wasn't a good area
to initiate new longs or add to longs. Why not scale into some
small longs here, and hedge out those longs by writing some
out-of-the-money calls?
Over the last few months I did pretty well with
swing longs and hedged them with a leveraged bear ETF which
pretty much cancelled out all my gains until today when I sold it.
It was a pretty rough ride but it worked out.
Talk about swing trading! I was thinking of swinging with a rope
around my neck (just kidding)
Will look to short again if we get a decent bounce. I have not
been day trading at all and staying out of the market, hence my
lack of postings lately (in case anybody missed me
)
I was net short most of the day although slightly long coming
in. Many members don't post at all so you can't make an evaluation
of the overall members' positions based on the posts. If you've
been following the nightly updates they've been pretty cautious and
take a look at the "Long Term Tools" section
Yes, nothing wrong with having long and short exposure. Imo,
traders get themselves in trouble when they are heavily 100% long
or 100% short. Knowing how to manage risk with writing options goes
a long way with avoiding drawdowns in ones' account.
Maybe not in this particular case.... but there are folks
trading all different time frames and strategies here. What
might not look good for me swinging for a few days might look good
to somebody else day trading or scalping, for instance. Also,
you never know what kind of strategy somebody is using and some
guys are probably just betting on a bounce. We're certainly
due. I do remember a recent bear market where that strategy
didn't work so well, though. Anyway, if you stick around you
might learn a few things and I'll bet you like it here.
Thanks..read the news letters..well done and I think matt was
warning of more downside if key levels get taken out..I guess some
like swimming up stream..anyway market feels like its sending A
message to the gov ..also moody s and the others seem to be in A
tuff position if they don't downgrade no one will be leave it..so
they need to be cautious as to what they say..expect some thing
soon
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what nobody short....odd
Posted by dell on 2nd of Aug 2011 at 05:13 pm
hope is not a strategy..well got a few days to make up me mind if I want to become A member why where most guys going long when the market did'nt move during the voting..sure we are due for a bounce but why the need to be early..
yes i have a number of longs now but am still MUCH more short....first time ive hedged my shorts to this extent....
Posted by marketguy on 2nd of Aug 2011 at 05:56 pm
Title: nobody short...odd I'm sure there
Posted by cw12 on 2nd of Aug 2011 at 05:26 pm
I'm sure there are many who went short last week, but they just didn't post it. There were several permabulls a week and a half ago who were making fun of shorts. Saying things like buy every little dip even though we were close to resistance levels. Getting too cocky basically. Why would shorts post their opinions then? Just let the bulls have their fun, while ignoring them and taking your positions.
The market is very stretched to the downside. With the market stretched so much to the downside, how much more energy can it have if it breaks the pivot support? Anything's possible, and we could be down another 2.5% tomorrow. But, when the market is so stretch in one direction, that's when a strong snap back rally can occur. Maybe we get a false break, and then an oversold bounce. Any bounce would face very stiff resistance levels. A lot of technical damage has been done. I would look at the 200 ma and broken downtrend line to act as resistance on any oversold bounce. There are also a lot of longs who bought this week and last week who will sell into any bounce. They're likely hoping the market bounces soon, so they can cut their losses at those resistance levels.
The top traders trade em both ways. It's all about managing your positions and risk. Imo, this is not a good time to initiate new short positions, just like a week and a half ago wasn't a good area to initiate new longs or add to longs. Why not scale into some small longs here, and hedge out those longs by writing some out-of-the-money calls?
Over the last few months
Posted by Palladin on 2nd of Aug 2011 at 05:40 pm
Over the last few months I did pretty well with swing longs and hedged them with a leveraged bear ETF which pretty much cancelled out all my gains until today when I sold it. It was a pretty rough ride but it worked out.
Talk about swing trading! I was thinking of swinging with a rope around my neck (just kidding)
Will look to short again if we get a decent bounce. I have not been day trading at all and staying out of the market, hence my lack of postings lately (in case anybody missed me
)
I was net short most
Posted by bkout3 on 2nd of Aug 2011 at 05:23 pm
I was net short most of the day although slightly long coming in. Many members don't post at all so you can't make an evaluation of the overall members' positions based on the posts. If you've been following the nightly updates they've been pretty cautious and take a look at the "Long Term Tools" section
Yes, nothing wrong with having
Posted by cw12 on 2nd of Aug 2011 at 05:35 pm
Yes, nothing wrong with having long and short exposure. Imo, traders get themselves in trouble when they are heavily 100% long or 100% short. Knowing how to manage risk with writing options goes a long way with avoiding drawdowns in ones' account.
Hi Dell,
Posted by johnc on 2nd of Aug 2011 at 05:22 pm
Maybe not in this particular case.... but there are folks trading all different time frames and strategies here. What might not look good for me swinging for a few days might look good to somebody else day trading or scalping, for instance. Also, you never know what kind of strategy somebody is using and some guys are probably just betting on a bounce. We're certainly due. I do remember a recent bear market where that strategy didn't work so well, though. Anyway, if you stick around you might learn a few things and I'll bet you like it here.
Thanks..read the news letters..well done
Posted by dell on 2nd of Aug 2011 at 05:51 pm
Thanks..read the news letters..well done and I think matt was warning of more downside if key levels get taken out..I guess some like swimming up stream..anyway market feels like its sending A message to the gov ..also moody s and the others seem to be in A tuff position if they don't downgrade no one will be leave it..so they need to be cautious as to what they say..expect some thing soon