Posted by marketguy on 17th of Jan 2011 at 06:37 pm
surprisingly not much comment on this earlier post...
anyways I'm pretty sure this is how Matt used to draw this
scenario from an Elliot Wave prospective where we are
currently in a B wave with a final C wave to come at some
point after everyone is convinced we are in a new bull market
and the market would continue higher unabated (sound
familiar?)....
Look, I'll be the first to admit that I've been prematurely
looking for this scenario to play out after it was introduced to me
not only here on BPT but other places on the net. I've
accumulated more losses than I "ever" thought I would allow to
happen (not looking for sympathy, just stating a frustrating and
scarey fact).
That said, along with these losses has come an even sharper
focus in my studies on where I went wrong and what to do about it
moving forward. Looking back at Sept, Oct and Nov I can't
even fathom how I was short based on what I currently am looking at
in my studies. In addition to that focus another discover was
to "TUNE EVERYONE OUT"...other blogs, CNB.S., etc., etc.,. Is
this scenario still in play? I'm not smart enough to know
that but what I do know is all the pieces of that puzzle Matt used
to warn us about at the top of the B wave is certainly in place (in
spades) so I guess we'll find out soon.
its actually a good question about primary three down --
Prechter always said we'd get 3 down when there are no bears left
and everyone is convinced the market can only go higher -- and
actually we are just now at that point. I thought we were
close to that point a year ago, as did many people............but I
wasn't even close. But right now, this is what it really
feels like when there are no bears left. Everyone
believes we're going higher. Even Prechter.
Wouldn't that be a surprise if wave 3 down started this
spring.
I'm not saying this because I'm bearish. I've been cured of
rationality. A pullback soon and then on to 1500 sounds
reasonable to me.
Matt always says "PRICE IS KING"... Plenty of OPPs to Flaten up
or Reverse if you were short. I would watch
PRICE first..... the market is ALWAYS RIGHT...just like your
WOMAN... LOL
Posted by marketguy on 17th of Jan 2011 at 07:05 pm
zach...not saying that Price isn't King...
my point is is this scenario off the table (after being
trumpeted on this very same site for months and months)? or
due to the sentiment and change in BPT's own thinking and elevated
targets are we indeed fulfilling a wave B top (again which hasn't
been mentioned for a very long time).
to clarify, I'm not saying that we should ignore price but
at what point is this no longer a feasible possibility or in fact
due to recent events should we be talking about it again....
I only use elliot wave for some quidence.... Too many if that..
then that scenerios. Prechter is the guy who was
calling for gold to drop to 600 when it was at
900ish... I think he was the guy with a bunch of
Hindenberg Omens... still waiting.. He
doesn't even trade anymore and friends of mine have met his son
taking trading classes from someone else... His kid doesn't even
believe in his old man. Also,
with the internet, modern computers, and
central banks pumping money into the system I don't know where
there is a "HISTORY" where elliot wave has been tested under
current conditions? Since we never had the
internet until the mid 90's and in full speed later
on... I don't see how elliot wave has ever been tested under todays
conditions. Unitl someone can prove
otherwise, I would keep the loses small and let
the winners ride.
Posted by fixdgear on 17th of Jan 2011 at 07:42 pm
zach you make a great point....
>jim sinclair said gold to $1000 when it
was $500...lol.i was all ready long at $350...but then again i like
shiny gold coins..hahaha
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What ever happened to this being a "B" wave up?
Illinois dummies
Posted by marketguy on 17th of Jan 2011 at 06:37 pm
surprisingly not much comment on this earlier post...
anyways I'm pretty sure this is how Matt used to draw this scenario from an Elliot Wave prospective where we are currently in a B wave with a final C wave to come at some point after everyone is convinced we are in a new bull market and the market would continue higher unabated (sound familiar?)....
Look, I'll be the first to admit that I've been prematurely looking for this scenario to play out after it was introduced to me not only here on BPT but other places on the net. I've accumulated more losses than I "ever" thought I would allow to happen (not looking for sympathy, just stating a frustrating and scarey fact).
That said, along with these losses has come an even sharper focus in my studies on where I went wrong and what to do about it moving forward. Looking back at Sept, Oct and Nov I can't even fathom how I was short based on what I currently am looking at in my studies. In addition to that focus another discover was to "TUNE EVERYONE OUT"...other blogs, CNB.S., etc., etc.,. Is this scenario still in play? I'm not smart enough to know that but what I do know is all the pieces of that puzzle Matt used to warn us about at the top of the B wave is certainly in place (in spades) so I guess we'll find out soon.
MG
What ever happened to this being a "B" wave up?
Posted by marketguy on 18th of Jan 2011 at 07:23 pm
I should caveat this post from last night that a couple blogs I still think are worth checking in on are the below:
http://cobrasmarketview.blogspot.com/ (updated nightly, very unbiased and very technically based....free)
http://www.sentimentrader.com/ (not so sure about all their data points but do nice one off studies...subscription required)
http://tradersnarrative.wordpress.com/ (primarily for survey/sentiment data...free)
wave 3 down
Posted by Michael on 17th of Jan 2011 at 07:51 pm
its actually a good question about primary three down -- Prechter always said we'd get 3 down when there are no bears left and everyone is convinced the market can only go higher -- and actually we are just now at that point. I thought we were close to that point a year ago, as did many people............but I wasn't even close. But right now, this is what it really feels like when there are no bears left. Everyone believes we're going higher. Even Prechter. Wouldn't that be a surprise if wave 3 down started this spring. I'm not saying this because I'm bearish. I've been cured of rationality. A pullback soon and then on to 1500 sounds reasonable to me.
wouldn't that be the ultimate
Posted by marketguy on 17th of Jan 2011 at 07:56 pm
wouldn't that be the ultimate irony, market goes down hard now as Prechter is bullish
Precter
Posted by maggi3322 on 17th of Jan 2011 at 11:24 pm
No kidding! Where did you see that precter is bullish???
I think I read it
Posted by Michael on 18th of Jan 2011 at 06:50 am
I think I read it on Yelnick.
Price is KING! NOT ELLIOT WAVE!
Posted by zach06 on 17th of Jan 2011 at 07:00 pm
Matt always says "PRICE IS KING"... Plenty of OPPs to Flaten up or Reverse if you were short. I would watch PRICE first..... the market is ALWAYS RIGHT...just like your WOMAN... LOL
zach...not saying that Price isn't
Posted by marketguy on 17th of Jan 2011 at 07:05 pm
zach...not saying that Price isn't King...
my point is is this scenario off the table (after being trumpeted on this very same site for months and months)? or due to the sentiment and change in BPT's own thinking and elevated targets are we indeed fulfilling a wave B top (again which hasn't been mentioned for a very long time).
to clarify, I'm not saying that we should ignore price but at what point is this no longer a feasible possibility or in fact due to recent events should we be talking about it again....
Prechter
Posted by zach06 on 17th of Jan 2011 at 07:36 pm
I only use elliot wave for some quidence.... Too many if that.. then that scenerios. Prechter is the guy who was calling for gold to drop to 600 when it was at 900ish... I think he was the guy with a bunch of Hindenberg Omens... still waiting.. He doesn't even trade anymore and friends of mine have met his son taking trading classes from someone else... His kid doesn't even believe in his old man. Also, with the internet, modern computers, and central banks pumping money into the system I don't know where there is a "HISTORY" where elliot wave has been tested under current conditions? Since we never had the internet until the mid 90's and in full speed later on... I don't see how elliot wave has ever been tested under todays conditions. Unitl someone can prove otherwise, I would keep the loses small and let the winners ride.
holy sheet
Posted by fixdgear on 17th of Jan 2011 at 07:42 pm
zach you make a great point....
>jim sinclair said gold to $1000 when it
was $500...lol.i was all ready long at $350...but then again i like
shiny gold coins..hahaha