Posted by marketguy on 14th of Jan 2011 at 10:51 pm
With all due respect Matt what happened to the other wave down
you guys talked about for almost 2 years (before this last big
run)? You guys would always warn that even though the market
was going up that we were in a counter trend that would eventually
turn back down in a big way. Granted you and Steve have been
saying to play the up trend the last few months and to follow price
which has (and I suppose will always be) spot on but have you guys
given up on this "C" wave down theory that you used to mention in
the nightly reports?
I remember you saying all the time that the "B" wave up was
meant to shake out every last bear, have everyone believing that we
are indeed in a new bull market and fool the masses before heading
back down. Well, lo and behold let's take an inventory:
1. I can't remember the last time anyone on this site
(especially in the nightly report) suggesting this is
only a "B" wave up and there is still the possibility of a
major "C" wave down. I mean for goodness sakes, I'm seeing
you guys targeting the mid 1400's to 1500's now. That turn in
thinking seems like the very same thinking you were warning us
about earlier.
2. Seems as though BPT has become somewhat of a penny
stock (at least stocks under $10) pump and dump site to some
extent....it's obviously working but just an observation of all the
trade ideas being shared on the long side (many have even been
under "$5")....very interesting from a sentiment standpoint.
3. I've also found it interesting that you have said a
couple times now over the last week that anyone who dare
try to pick a point at which the market may turn down is a
"loser". Not saying that continually trying to call a top is
a winning strategy but that terminology seems interesting if we are
indeed still in a "B" wave up as you once warned us about.
4. Look at the sentiment surveys, does seem like the
general public and newsletter writers are certainly on board the
bull bus in a big way which you used to mention would happen at the
top of the "B" wave.
I mean absolutely no disrespect with these comments but just
some observations I've noticed.
Posted by marketguy on 17th of Jan 2011 at 06:37 pm
surprisingly not much comment on this earlier post...
anyways I'm pretty sure this is how Matt used to draw this
scenario from an Elliot Wave prospective where we are
currently in a B wave with a final C wave to come at some
point after everyone is convinced we are in a new bull market
and the market would continue higher unabated (sound
familiar?)....
Look, I'll be the first to admit that I've been prematurely
looking for this scenario to play out after it was introduced to me
not only here on BPT but other places on the net. I've
accumulated more losses than I "ever" thought I would allow to
happen (not looking for sympathy, just stating a frustrating and
scarey fact).
That said, along with these losses has come an even sharper
focus in my studies on where I went wrong and what to do about it
moving forward. Looking back at Sept, Oct and Nov I can't
even fathom how I was short based on what I currently am looking at
in my studies. In addition to that focus another discover was
to "TUNE EVERYONE OUT"...other blogs, CNB.S., etc., etc.,. Is
this scenario still in play? I'm not smart enough to know
that but what I do know is all the pieces of that puzzle Matt used
to warn us about at the top of the B wave is certainly in place (in
spades) so I guess we'll find out soon.
its actually a good question about primary three down --
Prechter always said we'd get 3 down when there are no bears left
and everyone is convinced the market can only go higher -- and
actually we are just now at that point. I thought we were
close to that point a year ago, as did many people............but I
wasn't even close. But right now, this is what it really
feels like when there are no bears left. Everyone
believes we're going higher. Even Prechter.
Wouldn't that be a surprise if wave 3 down started this
spring.
I'm not saying this because I'm bearish. I've been cured of
rationality. A pullback soon and then on to 1500 sounds
reasonable to me.
Matt always says "PRICE IS KING"... Plenty of OPPs to Flaten up
or Reverse if you were short. I would watch
PRICE first..... the market is ALWAYS RIGHT...just like your
WOMAN... LOL
Posted by marketguy on 17th of Jan 2011 at 07:05 pm
zach...not saying that Price isn't King...
my point is is this scenario off the table (after being
trumpeted on this very same site for months and months)? or
due to the sentiment and change in BPT's own thinking and elevated
targets are we indeed fulfilling a wave B top (again which hasn't
been mentioned for a very long time).
to clarify, I'm not saying that we should ignore price but
at what point is this no longer a feasible possibility or in fact
due to recent events should we be talking about it again....
I only use elliot wave for some quidence.... Too many if that..
then that scenerios. Prechter is the guy who was
calling for gold to drop to 600 when it was at
900ish... I think he was the guy with a bunch of
Hindenberg Omens... still waiting.. He
doesn't even trade anymore and friends of mine have met his son
taking trading classes from someone else... His kid doesn't even
believe in his old man. Also,
with the internet, modern computers, and
central banks pumping money into the system I don't know where
there is a "HISTORY" where elliot wave has been tested under
current conditions? Since we never had the
internet until the mid 90's and in full speed later
on... I don't see how elliot wave has ever been tested under todays
conditions. Unitl someone can prove
otherwise, I would keep the loses small and let
the winners ride.
Posted by fixdgear on 17th of Jan 2011 at 07:42 pm
zach you make a great point....
>jim sinclair said gold to $1000 when it
was $500...lol.i was all ready long at $350...but then again i like
shiny gold coins..hahaha
Marketguy, I just wanted to respond to one of your comments. I
know that I post a lot of lower priced stocks. I tend to look in
the PMs and am looking for large movements - my scans right now are
for the .80 to $6 range. They are my comfort zone, no options
expiration or short overhang to worry about for the most part. I
appreciate that there is a wide range of trades given on the site
and that everyone is so generous with their knowledge and
ideas.
Posted by marketguy on 16th of Jan 2011 at 12:31 am
Hi baker....not in the least bashing anyone for posting ideas
(believe me, I'd be the last one to say anything about anyone's
ideas given my track record)....
my post is just a note on when folks are looking consistently at
lower price stock plays that's got to say something about sentiment
in general...
What ever happened to this being a "B" wave up?
Illinois dummies
Posted by marketguy on 14th of Jan 2011 at 10:51 pm
With all due respect Matt what happened to the other wave down you guys talked about for almost 2 years (before this last big run)? You guys would always warn that even though the market was going up that we were in a counter trend that would eventually turn back down in a big way. Granted you and Steve have been saying to play the up trend the last few months and to follow price which has (and I suppose will always be) spot on but have you guys given up on this "C" wave down theory that you used to mention in the nightly reports?
I remember you saying all the time that the "B" wave up was meant to shake out every last bear, have everyone believing that we are indeed in a new bull market and fool the masses before heading back down. Well, lo and behold let's take an inventory:
1. I can't remember the last time anyone on this site (especially in the nightly report) suggesting this is only a "B" wave up and there is still the possibility of a major "C" wave down. I mean for goodness sakes, I'm seeing you guys targeting the mid 1400's to 1500's now. That turn in thinking seems like the very same thinking you were warning us about earlier.
2. Seems as though BPT has become somewhat of a penny stock (at least stocks under $10) pump and dump site to some extent....it's obviously working but just an observation of all the trade ideas being shared on the long side (many have even been under "$5")....very interesting from a sentiment standpoint.
3. I've also found it interesting that you have said a couple times now over the last week that anyone who dare try to pick a point at which the market may turn down is a "loser". Not saying that continually trying to call a top is a winning strategy but that terminology seems interesting if we are indeed still in a "B" wave up as you once warned us about.
4. Look at the sentiment surveys, does seem like the general public and newsletter writers are certainly on board the bull bus in a big way which you used to mention would happen at the top of the "B" wave.
I mean absolutely no disrespect with these comments but just some observations I've noticed.
What ever happened to this being a "B" wave up?
Posted by marketguy on 17th of Jan 2011 at 06:37 pm
surprisingly not much comment on this earlier post...
anyways I'm pretty sure this is how Matt used to draw this scenario from an Elliot Wave prospective where we are currently in a B wave with a final C wave to come at some point after everyone is convinced we are in a new bull market and the market would continue higher unabated (sound familiar?)....
Look, I'll be the first to admit that I've been prematurely looking for this scenario to play out after it was introduced to me not only here on BPT but other places on the net. I've accumulated more losses than I "ever" thought I would allow to happen (not looking for sympathy, just stating a frustrating and scarey fact).
That said, along with these losses has come an even sharper focus in my studies on where I went wrong and what to do about it moving forward. Looking back at Sept, Oct and Nov I can't even fathom how I was short based on what I currently am looking at in my studies. In addition to that focus another discover was to "TUNE EVERYONE OUT"...other blogs, CNB.S., etc., etc.,. Is this scenario still in play? I'm not smart enough to know that but what I do know is all the pieces of that puzzle Matt used to warn us about at the top of the B wave is certainly in place (in spades) so I guess we'll find out soon.
MG
What ever happened to this being a "B" wave up?
Posted by marketguy on 18th of Jan 2011 at 07:23 pm
I should caveat this post from last night that a couple blogs I still think are worth checking in on are the below:
http://cobrasmarketview.blogspot.com/ (updated nightly, very unbiased and very technically based....free)
http://www.sentimentrader.com/ (not so sure about all their data points but do nice one off studies...subscription required)
http://tradersnarrative.wordpress.com/ (primarily for survey/sentiment data...free)
wave 3 down
Posted by Michael on 17th of Jan 2011 at 07:51 pm
its actually a good question about primary three down -- Prechter always said we'd get 3 down when there are no bears left and everyone is convinced the market can only go higher -- and actually we are just now at that point. I thought we were close to that point a year ago, as did many people............but I wasn't even close. But right now, this is what it really feels like when there are no bears left. Everyone believes we're going higher. Even Prechter. Wouldn't that be a surprise if wave 3 down started this spring. I'm not saying this because I'm bearish. I've been cured of rationality. A pullback soon and then on to 1500 sounds reasonable to me.
wouldn't that be the ultimate
Posted by marketguy on 17th of Jan 2011 at 07:56 pm
wouldn't that be the ultimate irony, market goes down hard now as Prechter is bullish
Precter
Posted by maggi3322 on 17th of Jan 2011 at 11:24 pm
No kidding! Where did you see that precter is bullish???
I think I read it
Posted by Michael on 18th of Jan 2011 at 06:50 am
I think I read it on Yelnick.
Price is KING! NOT ELLIOT WAVE!
Posted by zach06 on 17th of Jan 2011 at 07:00 pm
Matt always says "PRICE IS KING"... Plenty of OPPs to Flaten up or Reverse if you were short. I would watch PRICE first..... the market is ALWAYS RIGHT...just like your WOMAN... LOL
zach...not saying that Price isn't
Posted by marketguy on 17th of Jan 2011 at 07:05 pm
zach...not saying that Price isn't King...
my point is is this scenario off the table (after being trumpeted on this very same site for months and months)? or due to the sentiment and change in BPT's own thinking and elevated targets are we indeed fulfilling a wave B top (again which hasn't been mentioned for a very long time).
to clarify, I'm not saying that we should ignore price but at what point is this no longer a feasible possibility or in fact due to recent events should we be talking about it again....
Prechter
Posted by zach06 on 17th of Jan 2011 at 07:36 pm
I only use elliot wave for some quidence.... Too many if that.. then that scenerios. Prechter is the guy who was calling for gold to drop to 600 when it was at 900ish... I think he was the guy with a bunch of Hindenberg Omens... still waiting.. He doesn't even trade anymore and friends of mine have met his son taking trading classes from someone else... His kid doesn't even believe in his old man. Also, with the internet, modern computers, and central banks pumping money into the system I don't know where there is a "HISTORY" where elliot wave has been tested under current conditions? Since we never had the internet until the mid 90's and in full speed later on... I don't see how elliot wave has ever been tested under todays conditions. Unitl someone can prove otherwise, I would keep the loses small and let the winners ride.
holy sheet
Posted by fixdgear on 17th of Jan 2011 at 07:42 pm
zach you make a great point....
>jim sinclair said gold to $1000 when it
was $500...lol.i was all ready long at $350...but then again i like
shiny gold coins..hahaha
Agree totally
Posted by sfeid on 17th of Jan 2011 at 08:43 am
Looking for 10cent pops in 2 dollar stocks signals the end to me
Marketguy, I just wanted to
Posted by baker on 15th of Jan 2011 at 08:42 pm
Marketguy, I just wanted to respond to one of your comments. I know that I post a lot of lower priced stocks. I tend to look in the PMs and am looking for large movements - my scans right now are for the .80 to $6 range. They are my comfort zone, no options expiration or short overhang to worry about for the most part. I appreciate that there is a wide range of trades given on the site and that everyone is so generous with their knowledge and ideas.
Hi baker....not in the least
Posted by marketguy on 16th of Jan 2011 at 12:31 am
Hi baker....not in the least bashing anyone for posting ideas (believe me, I'd be the last one to say anything about anyone's ideas given my track record)....
my post is just a note on when folks are looking consistently at lower price stock plays that's got to say something about sentiment in general...
continued luck...
I hear you. I have
Posted by baker on 16th of Jan 2011 at 11:16 am
I hear you. I have an uncanny ability to be a contrary indicator :-)