Let's start with the fact that 22 of the past 25 Mondays "they"
have jammed the market up. Ok let's add in the Bradley model turn
date due 3/1 and McHugh's own Phi date turn (+/- a few trade days)
due last Friday.So a top can come at any time, and one would
presume higher that 2/19 for a significant turning point.
Some interesting chart patterns. McHugh is showing that from the
top on 2/19 at 1112 the market has finished a Descending Broadening
Wedge pattern at Thursday's lows (Steve has pointed the same thing
out) and that is short term bullish when following a rising
trend.
Then Friday saw the completion on an even shorter term basis of
an Ascending Bullish Triangle.
Look at the count that has wave 2 up from 1044 as an ABC-- where
A up finished at 1112 and B down finished Thursday at 1086--the
correction was a pleasant squaring of price and time around .382 of
wave A..
Now if C=.618A, it targets 1128. This is basically .786 of the
full drop from 1150-1044. Time wise .618 of A makes it this coming
Thursday/Friday.
Ok now look at the various stochastics and macd. They are just
getting to overbought. Give them a nice push up so they get over 80
for 3-5 days and then you really have them overbought.
McHugh noted that for the past 10 years (with the exception of
2006, it came six week later) there has been a significant trend
change in March around the equinox. Last year saw the bottom on
March 6. So the market could top this week or run up into the next
couple weeks based on this cycle indicator.
Add it all together and this market is ready to blast higher 1%
or more. Heck, don't forget all the short covering and popped buy
stops as it rises 1%, and 1128 is only 2% above Friday's close.
Well for the bears, they need to see this market move sideways
or lower on Monday to break up the various bullish patterns and
channels.
It is window dressing time so the tendancy is up up and away
till Thurs. As if right now futures for SPX are up +5 oil is also
up and the dollar is down.
Will market boost higher Monday???
Posted by perthx on 28th of Feb 2010 at 02:18 pm
Let's start with the fact that 22 of the past 25 Mondays "they" have jammed the market up. Ok let's add in the Bradley model turn date due 3/1 and McHugh's own Phi date turn (+/- a few trade days) due last Friday.So a top can come at any time, and one would presume higher that 2/19 for a significant turning point.
Some interesting chart patterns. McHugh is showing that from the top on 2/19 at 1112 the market has finished a Descending Broadening Wedge pattern at Thursday's lows (Steve has pointed the same thing out) and that is short term bullish when following a rising trend.
Then Friday saw the completion on an even shorter term basis of an Ascending Bullish Triangle.
Look at the count that has wave 2 up from 1044 as an ABC-- where A up finished at 1112 and B down finished Thursday at 1086--the correction was a pleasant squaring of price and time around .382 of wave A..
Now if C=.618A, it targets 1128. This is basically .786 of the full drop from 1150-1044. Time wise .618 of A makes it this coming Thursday/Friday.
Ok now look at the various stochastics and macd. They are just getting to overbought. Give them a nice push up so they get over 80 for 3-5 days and then you really have them overbought.
McHugh noted that for the past 10 years (with the exception of 2006, it came six week later) there has been a significant trend change in March around the equinox. Last year saw the bottom on March 6. So the market could top this week or run up into the next couple weeks based on this cycle indicator.
Add it all together and this market is ready to blast higher 1% or more. Heck, don't forget all the short covering and popped buy stops as it rises 1%, and 1128 is only 2% above Friday's close.
Well for the bears, they need to see this market move sideways or lower on Monday to break up the various bullish patterns and channels.
Time to enjoy the rest of the weekend.
Monday
Posted by marcus on 28th of Feb 2010 at 08:37 pm
Rydex data suggests a consolidation or top is near in this move
Monday
Posted by rbreese on 28th of Feb 2010 at 06:26 pm
I think by getting shorts to cover early in the week and then turn back down to take out last weeks lows.
It is window dressing time
Posted by ditch on 28th of Feb 2010 at 07:25 pm
It is window dressing time so the tendancy is up up and away till Thurs. As if right now futures for SPX are up +5 oil is also up and the dollar is down.
perthx
Posted by isplat on 28th of Feb 2010 at 04:41 pm
I always enjoy reading your thoughts and analyses - they make a lot of sense. Thanks, and keep 'em coming!
I think you're right...a reverse
Posted by sfulcher on 28th of Feb 2010 at 03:00 pm
I think you're right...a reverse H&S heading for the neckline, and 5,3,3 heading up after a higher low
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=spx&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p21496737634