Also a big Demark target at 4007, which could  be cause for a quick rip and dip if we go through that line. 

Yes, they have done so for the past several months. The reason being currency values are all relative. While the US has used excessive debt financing which usually causes price depreciation, the relative “bang for the buck” we have been getting for it has been much higher than most other countries that are dealing with covid. So, it has not depreciated relative to other currencies (yet).
Of course, that trade will only go on for so long until it unwinds, and it has been heavily technically driven. A huge driver for that was macro funds coming into the year almost universally net short the dollar and then DXY reversed in January off big weekly Demark lines. That set into action a squeeze with everyone eyeing upside Demark levels on the DXY here in the high 93-94.20 area that also reside right where the old ten year uptrend line is currently.
Given the enormous size of these macro markets they dont turn on a dime. That is why you will start seeing intermarket reactions like we did today before everything lines up perfect and trends fully reverse. In fact, it those relative changes ahead of the actual trend change that cause intermarket divergences, which support the technical aspects that eventual produce the actual trend reversal. 

Just finished posting about how instead of trading GLD to take advantage of the macro patterns in the dollar/rates/metals markets I was describing, fast money could go out and snatch tech and semis off the open....and ten minutes later John Murphy mails out the following....(this is not stuff I make up off the top of my head. Lol)

“ TECHS ARE HAVING A STRONG DAY... Technology stocks are the day's strongest sector which is helping boost the Nasdaq market. As a result, the Nasdaq is leading today's rally. Chart 1 show the Invesco QQQ Trust trading 1.8% higher today and nearing a test of its 50-day moving average. The QQQ may also be heading for a test of a small "neckline" drawn over its March highs. A close above that resistance line could push prices closer to their February high. 

Chart 2 shows the Technology SPDR (XLK) already trading above its 50-day line and heading toward a test of its March highs. The XLK is the day's strongest sector. Semiconductors are helping lead the XLK higher. Chart 3 shows the VanEck Vectors Semiconductor ETF (SMH) trading at the highest level in a month. My Friday message showed three chip leaders to be Applied Materials, Lam Research, and KLA Corp. All three are having another strong day.”

Conceptually, no need to play this macro trade via GLD, to Matt’s point, probably best not to unless you already trade it a lot. Instead, at turning points in the dollar, the correlated presumption is that rates are probably also making a short term top and that equities, and especially rate sensitive equities like high growth tech, are going to benefit. So...instead of GLD you go out and take the Semi’s and the QQQs right after the open hand over fist...(which is exactly what is happening today). 

Welcome, any time. 

I agree 100%. The biggest reason it is hard to trade is because few people have the time, energy or connections to keep their pulse on the macro factors that effect it, including the relative positions of macro funds (i.e who, and how many funds are leaning the wrong way at potential turning points.)

Way easier to trade thinner, obscure securities on momentum, which is what I spent my first 10 years in the business doing professionally. Unfortunately, that is not an option for me any longer as I am restricted on what I can do because of the information I regularly possess. So, I limit myself to ETFs, longer time frames, and the most liquid products. 

In simple terms yes. Securities should be above the cloud in uptrends. However, in this particular case, the appropraite time frame to catch a reversal of this nature would be on a very short term chart. On those charts the cloud configuration would be bullish. 

Anytime....The obvious caveat is that at times even the best patterns may fail.

That being said, this pattern (target) in the dollar, and its effects on SLV and GLD, is something that has been on the radar of one of the most respected technical analysts on the street since January (who’s analysis I have access to). I mention that only to highlight that there are funds controlling billions, who he advises, that have been waiting for this to play out for weeks. 

Here you can see another significant indicator of the importance of today’s move. We are getting a “reversal of a reversal”. Specifically, yesterdays action created a muti-week bearish island reversal...which itself is being reversed today.

“Second Mouse Gets the Cheese”

See my earlier post about the dollar.

This move is not about filling yesterday’s GLD gap, which is usually a bearish retracement. Instead, yesterday’s gap was an exhaustion gap that coincided with what is likely an end, or at a minimum a pause, in  a huge macro rotation that started in January with the reversal to the upside in the dollar. Today’s gap in GLD is the real gap to watch. For now, it is a breakaway gap which confirms the significance of the double bottom now in place and indicates the start of a new short/intermediate term uptrend. Looking across assets to silver, where it too had an exhaustion gap yesterday, followed by the filling of an old longstanding gap below, followed by a breakaway gap back to the upside today...and you will see multiple asset classes confirming the rotation I am describing above (largely technically driven by the  backtest of the ten year uptrend in the dollar). 

Dollar is extended and hit upside targets which include multi-year support now turned resistance as well the backside of the prior ten year uptrend line.  

SPX Fib Fans providing support to this mornings selloff and a catalyst to try to close the gaps. 

As expected, we gapped over that trendline confirming its importance. I would expect a backtest to further highlight it. 

EEM closed on the .236. Any sustained further weakness will add more pressure to everything as it will be magnetized to the .382.
Alternatively, as the shorter term charts appear to be a falling wedge, a bounce from this level would be supportive. Something to keep in the radar either way. 

Broke the fan line and came to rest on the four month trend line. That means a gap below tomorrow (which is very likely given the low close), if not quickly reversed, will take on increased importance. 

Hangin on the fan line. 

As you know, going to get a whole lot worse if we just made a lower high on the NDX and we then take out the recent low.