With 40% of SP500 quarterlies reported, 'E' is up almost 13% on
average. That and positive ROCs on economic metrics are
constructive. Geopolitical risks may not be. But general
bearishness here is difficult to verify in data.
They raised into a slowdown in 2015, which was a huge mistake.
Now, raising into real growth acceleration is easy. As always, they
lag markets and should get out of interest rate price fixing
altogether.
Normally, this would point to a potentially strong reversion to
higher volatility, but the 30 & 60 day implieds are sitting at
over a 70% premium to realized. So implieds have a lot of room to
come down in the next 2 months. This mitigates the probabilities of
a strong pullback in the index.
Absolutely. As we've seen many times, this pattern can go on far
longer than expected. Poor structure, quick liquidations, repair
with new highs, rinse and repeat.
It's been a while, but I might be able to track down some
contact info. I wonder if it would be possible to maintain your
nightly chartlist on a non-public basis, just sending a link to
members each night while you do the audio overlay separately.
But I would also like to press them on not taking functionality
from you. What is the technical change being forced on you?
Another thought: I and maybe many others wouldn't subscribe
except for what you and Steve do, so if there's a better
alternative, I would be happy to ditch them.
All BPT members should register this concern with Stockcharts.
I've been up to Seattle and have met them; they're nice guys, but
their charting platform is antiquated. And if they're going
backwards instead of forwards in terms of ease of use, it's even
worse. I think they will pay attention if sufficient numbers
register complaints. Matt, what's the specific change that should
be requested undone?
Funny, Larry McDonald sent out a Bear Traps Report to sell all
miners today. Not that anyone should care about either report apart
from testing their own approach if perhaps too bullish or bearish.
That said, building positions at these levels is a much different
thing than trimming and trailing, so edge to Larry.
The community is delayed by three days for non registered users.
Awesome, Stevie! Having Jim Dalton's
Something interesting just happened in ES.
Posted by a_l_ on 23rd of Jun 2017 at 04:47 pm
Awesome, Stevie! Having Jim Dalton's endorsement is a sign of its quality.
Congratulations, Steve! Our middle kid
Graduation Photo Late Night
Posted by a_l_ on 26th of May 2017 at 11:51 am
Congratulations, Steve! Our middle kid graduates next month. I guess halfway through is good to celebrate as an optimist!
Happy Birthday, Matt!
Matt's Birthday
Posted by a_l_ on 24th of May 2017 at 01:15 pm
Happy Birthday, Matt!
Thanks, Steve. Quite possible.
Structural Issues (Just Something to Ponder)
Posted by a_l_ on 24th of May 2017 at 01:15 pm
Thanks, Steve. Quite possible.
Atlanta Fed # is not
Atlanta Fed GDP est drops
Posted by a_l_ on 27th of Apr 2017 at 12:34 pm
Atlanta Fed # is not reliable. Huge intraquarter revisions point to a bad model.
With 40% of SP500 quarterlies
CAPE Ratio comment
Posted by a_l_ on 27th of Apr 2017 at 12:29 pm
With 40% of SP500 quarterlies reported, 'E' is up almost 13% on average. That and positive ROCs on economic metrics are constructive. Geopolitical risks may not be. But general bearishness here is difficult to verify in data.
FYI: TOS says ADMP reports
Posted by a_l_ on 30th of Mar 2017 at 02:17 pm
FYI: TOS says ADMP reports after the close. Can't confirm on company website & another source says 4/5. No listing on briefing.com.
http://www.smithsonianmag.com/smart-news/the-price-of-a-starbucks-coffee-has-nothing-to-do-with-the-price-of-coffee-beans-180947675/ Not really nothing, but a
JO monthly
Posted by a_l_ on 25th of Mar 2017 at 08:59 pm
http://www.smithsonianmag.com/smart-news/the-price-of-a-starbucks-coffee-has-nothing-to-do-with-the-price-of-coffee-beans-180947675/
Not really nothing, but a 50% fluctuation would change their cost structure less than 5% either way.
Thanks for all of the
WEYL losing momentum?
Posted by a_l_ on 17th of Mar 2017 at 02:03 pm
Thanks for all of the fundamental ideas last night, Steve. Looks like BPT members are supporting a few of those today.
For anyone interested, you can get Sept 7.5 BBRG calls for less than the midpoint quoted.
They raised into a slowdown
Fed statement suggesting 2 more rate hikes giving a boost ...
Posted by a_l_ on 15th of Mar 2017 at 02:27 pm
They raised into a slowdown in 2015, which was a huge mistake. Now, raising into real growth acceleration is easy. As always, they lag markets and should get out of interest rate price fixing altogether.
Normally, this would point to
ZH - Nasdaq Volatility hits lowest level on record
Posted by a_l_ on 14th of Mar 2017 at 09:13 pm
Normally, this would point to a potentially strong reversion to higher volatility, but the 30 & 60 day implieds are sitting at over a 70% premium to realized. So implieds have a lot of room to come down in the next 2 months. This mitigates the probabilities of a strong pullback in the index.
Thanks, Matt!
Long ADMP Updated View
Posted by a_l_ on 8th of Mar 2017 at 02:10 pm
Thanks, Matt!
Used cheap calls on this
Long ADMP Updated View
Posted by a_l_ on 8th of Mar 2017 at 10:40 am
Used cheap calls on this one. If it can clear that 4.50 to 4.80 range, there's almost an abyss above. Gave it plenty of time to play out.
Absolutely. As we've seen many
Nice day, but looks like traders might be too long up here.
Posted by a_l_ on 10th of Feb 2017 at 10:56 am
Absolutely. As we've seen many times, this pattern can go on far longer than expected. Poor structure, quick liquidations, repair with new highs, rinse and repeat.
Overbought, but not exhaustive. Poor
Nice day, but looks like traders might be too long up here.
Posted by a_l_ on 10th of Feb 2017 at 09:48 am
Overbought, but not exhaustive. Poor highs set up for repair after pullbacks.
It's been a while, but
Important! please read
Posted by a_l_ on 9th of Feb 2017 at 05:49 pm
It's been a while, but I might be able to track down some contact info. I wonder if it would be possible to maintain your nightly chartlist on a non-public basis, just sending a link to members each night while you do the audio overlay separately.
But I would also like to press them on not taking functionality from you. What is the technical change being forced on you?
Another thought: I and maybe many others wouldn't subscribe except for what you and Steve do, so if there's a better alternative, I would be happy to ditch them.
All BPT members should register
Important! please read
Posted by a_l_ on 9th of Feb 2017 at 01:42 pm
All BPT members should register this concern with Stockcharts. I've been up to Seattle and have met them; they're nice guys, but their charting platform is antiquated. And if they're going backwards instead of forwards in terms of ease of use, it's even worse. I think they will pay attention if sufficient numbers register complaints. Matt, what's the specific change that should be requested undone?
Correlations
Tim Knight - Gold Chart
Posted by a_l_ on 9th of Feb 2017 at 01:14 pm
Correlations
Funny, Larry McDonald sent out
Same author, on Gold Eagle as Sentiment speaks on Seeking Alpha
Posted by a_l_ on 7th of Feb 2017 at 11:44 pm
Funny, Larry McDonald sent out a Bear Traps Report to sell all miners today. Not that anyone should care about either report apart from testing their own approach if perhaps too bullish or bearish. That said, building positions at these levels is a much different thing than trimming and trailing, so edge to Larry.
Update from Friday's COT: non-comms
COT for WTIC
Posted by a_l_ on 6th of Feb 2017 at 01:29 pm
Update from Friday's COT: non-comms added to /CL longs, bringing positioning to 2.23 standard deviations over 1Y mean and 2.69 STD over 3Y mean.