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Awesome, Stevie! Having Jim Dalton's endorsement is a sign of its quality.

Congratulations, Steve! Our middle kid graduates next month. I guess halfway through is good to celebrate as an optimist!

Happy Birthday, Matt!

Matt's Birthday

Posted by a_l_ on 24th of May 2017 at 01:15 pm

Happy Birthday, Matt!

Thanks, Steve. Quite possible.

Atlanta Fed # is not

Atlanta Fed GDP est drops

Posted by a_l_ on 27th of Apr 2017 at 12:34 pm

Atlanta Fed # is not reliable. Huge intraquarter revisions point to a bad model.

With 40% of SP500 quarterlies

CAPE Ratio comment

Posted by a_l_ on 27th of Apr 2017 at 12:29 pm

With 40% of SP500 quarterlies reported, 'E' is up almost 13% on average. That and positive ROCs on economic metrics are constructive. Geopolitical risks may not be. But general bearishness here is difficult to verify in data.

FYI: TOS says ADMP reports

Posted by a_l_ on 30th of Mar 2017 at 02:17 pm

FYI: TOS says ADMP reports after the close. Can't confirm on company website & another source says 4/5. No listing on briefing.com.

Thanks for all of the

WEYL losing momentum?

Posted by a_l_ on 17th of Mar 2017 at 02:03 pm

Thanks for all of the fundamental ideas last night, Steve. Looks like BPT members are supporting a few of those today.

For anyone interested, you can get Sept 7.5 BBRG calls for less than the midpoint quoted. 

They raised into a slowdown in 2015, which was a huge mistake. Now, raising into real growth acceleration is easy. As always, they lag markets and should get out of interest rate price fixing altogether.

Normally, this would point to a potentially strong reversion to higher volatility, but the 30 & 60 day implieds are sitting at over a 70% premium to realized. So implieds have a lot of room to come down in the next 2 months. This mitigates the probabilities of a strong pullback in the index.

Thanks, Matt!

Long ADMP Updated View

Posted by a_l_ on 8th of Mar 2017 at 02:10 pm

Thanks, Matt!

Used cheap calls on this

Long ADMP Updated View

Posted by a_l_ on 8th of Mar 2017 at 10:40 am

Used cheap calls on this one. If it can clear that 4.50 to 4.80 range, there's almost an abyss above. Gave it plenty of time to play out.

Absolutely. As we've seen many times, this pattern can go on far longer than expected. Poor structure, quick liquidations, repair with new highs, rinse and repeat.

Overbought, but not exhaustive. Poor highs set up for repair after pullbacks.

It's been a while, but

Important! please read

Posted by a_l_ on 9th of Feb 2017 at 05:49 pm

It's been a while, but I might be able to track down some contact info. I wonder if it would be possible to maintain your nightly chartlist on a non-public basis, just sending a link to members each night while you do the audio overlay separately.

But I would also like to press them on not taking functionality from you. What is the technical change being forced on you?

Another thought: I and maybe many others wouldn't subscribe except for what you and Steve do, so if there's a better alternative, I would be happy to ditch them.

All BPT members should register

Important! please read

Posted by a_l_ on 9th of Feb 2017 at 01:42 pm

All BPT members should register this concern with Stockcharts. I've been up to Seattle and have met them; they're nice guys, but their charting platform is antiquated. And if they're going backwards instead of forwards in terms of ease of use, it's even worse. I think they will pay attention if sufficient numbers register complaints. Matt, what's the specific change that should be requested undone?

Correlations

Tim Knight - Gold Chart

Posted by a_l_ on 9th of Feb 2017 at 01:14 pm

Funny, Larry McDonald sent out a Bear Traps Report to sell all miners today. Not that anyone should care about either report apart from testing their own approach if perhaps too bullish or bearish. That said, building positions at these levels is a much different thing than trimming and trailing, so edge to Larry.

Update from Friday's COT: non-comms

COT for WTIC

Posted by a_l_ on 6th of Feb 2017 at 01:29 pm

Update from Friday's COT: non-comms added to /CL longs, bringing positioning to 2.23 standard deviations over 1Y mean and 2.69 STD over 3Y mean.

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