some good news but also bad news, company warning of supply chain issue, revenue lower, and whenever company guidance does not look good, sell off is expected

AXP good earnings up 9%, but VZ just hanging around, 

thanks Matt, much easier with snip

hahaha, OZ should follow UK

It would be nice if I can just capture and paste here, instead of saving in paint, then upload (switching back and forth on my 14" laptop is really not fun, while watching the market).

I cannot copy my screen and paste, but need to save and upload, can you just copy screen and paste? That is why I don't like to show charts, too many steps.

Hey Matt, thank you for your video on your spy system, it is amazing!!! You have put in a lot of effort in analysing, scripting and testing. From a system point of view you are the first that have this kind of perfection. I also follow another trader who has a system, almost to perfection as well, but it is not automated, though he has the ability to do so, but I think he does not want to lose his skills once he automates his system. I have also seen a few other good systems over the years and yours is excellent with statistics. I may try to trade a larger position.

One thing I am confused is this

" For first entry trades I target a delta of 0.6, for 2nd entries I target a delta of 0.5, and for rare 3rd entries I target an even lower delta below 0.5. The thought process there is that 2nd and 3rd entry options have a higher probability and thus I I can buy options with lower delta to give more leverage."

If the 2nd and 3rd entry options have a higher probability (because spy is stretched), why not use 0.7 or even higher delta instead of lower 0.5 delta? Higher delta gives you more leverage. I do follow John Carter who likes 0.7 delta for higher leverage.

valuation, but when market sells, I don't think it matters, just like to short high pe, no profit companies that drop like rocks, need to wait for setups. I was "hoping" strong earnings will keep the stocks up, no, in a sellers' market, everything sells. Every 5G phone needs a qcom chip yet it tanks, amat, mu, wdc, tsm stellar earnings, and many more with over 125% growth all tank, unlike last year they would be flying high with these numbers, so funds just sell, this is a weak market. I see no signs of a bottom, could have a weak bounce, but that is it (I think). All funds are looking for a reversal, this means there will be more downside coming, may be not right now. If we get a 1 or 2 days rally, I will sell my spy options. Down trend is the least resistant. RSX dropped and Biden made a serious warning to Russia, but news induced drop won't last long, yet because of the weak market I did not buy RUSL. Even though oil inventory is tight, I think today's upside is more related to news related to Russia, so I did not buy any. I "hope" GDX will stay flat for the next few days, then a rise would be perfect for the bull, if not, I will be out.

I just realized my previous post disappeared, re-posting CF and CORN still look good, WEAT is just below 50dma still waiting for a better entry. Mark won again STOCK TRADER WINS U.S. INVESTING CHAMPIONSHIP A SECOND TIME - BREAKS RECORD (yahoo.com)

do you mean this?  Jeremy Grantham Sees Stocks in ‘Super Bubble,’ Says Selloff Has Started - Bloomberg

I just saw this, which was for last week, but it has good info on rate hikes and growth stocks https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZLy4fqeCyf4

Thanks, I appreciate it. I am weak on E waves and your system.

yeah a big down was my worry when I took a small upro and 2 spy reversion mean options, but I was thinking that my upro was small enough, I was not sure how my options will respond, but I was thinking they are March DTE or may be it would not be that bad, that was why I took the trades. My plan was if the spy goes up, I will take them off fairly quickly, if spy goes down, my upro will be stopped out, and I will see how much damage are the options.

Sorry for so many posts, but I am seeing real danger in the market. I have marked 3 red arrows on big companies. If they can get back up, all is well, but so far the MA's are pointing down with % of stocks above 200dma below. In 2018 after the initial MA crossed down around April, the % of stocks above 200dma came back up in August, but subsequently a big drop after. So we could come back up, but I do not have too much hope after that. Not that the market will do what I think, I am just pointing out some possibilities.

Put call ratios, as a contrarian signals, we could be close for a bounce, I have put some notes on my charts to remind myself. The 2nd chart overlays spy, but it messes up the PC ratio scale.

Fundamentally there is still not much indication a a bear market so some analysts say we are still heading to new high after this correction, but technically it shows all the signs of a stage 3 top. Let's see how things go 1 day at a time.

spy weekly new high new low (bottom indicator)  compare to 2008 and 2020. Current value reaches similar to those bear markets but spy has corrected to 200ma. So the faang stocks have held spy really well. spy long term broke down from the rising wedge.

Looking at GDX even though it has dropped 2% today macd, sto are still trending up, sentiment is getting bullish, sector internals are still strong. GDX breaks out of the triangle and is sitting on top of a bunch MA that are pointing up but below 200ema. The funny thing is real yields is up, should be bad for gold. Next fomc Wed. I am 50% in GDX, and probably will add more.

From Stan Weinstein's stage analysis, spy weekly is below 34 WMA, so we are at the beginning of a bear market. My plan is to short bounces with greater position until the chart shows otherwise. SPY corrected about 8.5% from the high which is normal in a bull market, but looking at the charts breaking the trend lines and the internals, I don't think this is just a normal pull back.

If I were you I would wait for a bounce and sell. As of today, looking at the # of new lows, and 16% price above 20ema, 28% price above 50ema, 56% of stocks > 200ema, 58% of stocks with 20ema > 50 ema, 79% of stocks with 50ema > 200ema. Since only 28% of stocks with price above 50ema, this means the 79% of stocks with 50ema > 200ema will go lower moving forward. I do not have much hope for too much of a bounce. Someone I follow sold all his long term holdings a week or 2 ago.

We are close for a bounce, hahaha, or not.