Panic - You are operating in primordial brain (flight and
fright). Your decisions will be emotional and not rational.
I always try to keep this formula in my head when faced with
a big decision. I/E. I(Intellect)/ E (emotion).
So I always check in with this formula to see if I am
overweight Intellect or else I am in an emotional mind and that
could prove to be a bad decision.
I tired once years ago. I was over my head when I started
to trade Corn, Wheat, Soybeans, Live cattle and Hogs. The
moves are tremendous and I learned Live Hogs is thinly traded and I
got wiped out in 10 trades. -$50K in one week. That was
my experience. I was not prepared for the huge price swings
and volatility. It is a very fast game and expensive
education.
Matt - I aint going to lie. I was sweating this am with
the free fall waiting for the market to catch a bid. Best
thing I did was walk away from the screen and walk the dogs.
Trust my work and know my defined risk. Days like
these so important to have a trading plan and stay the
course.
Look at; VIR. i was going to take a position on Friday
near the 50 day MA and I had a work CC and forgot about it.
Dang, what a move. Wait for pullback to the 28-30
area.
The SPX saw a volatile day, with a sharp 53.90 SP gap &
rally to a 10.55HOD at 3182.51 SPX, reversed a sharp 73.52 SP’s to
lower Lows at 1.50LOD at 3108.99 SPX and closed lower, down -11.82
at 3116.39 SPX. This volatility is not for the faint of heart!
Markets are deeply oversold and we have seen 5 strong consecutive
Panic down days in a row, we are in a crash wave. Panics are
difficult to predict, as it ignores normal T&C CITs, but lower
Lows are likely out there and the 200 DMA at 3044.53 SPX acts as a
magnet, but this steep decline phase could be over sooner than
later, perhaps in the next few days. We were looking for a 300 SP
decline from the 2/19H at 3393.50 SPX, which we got at the
1/26/18H-9/21/18H-7/26/19H trendline at the 3090 /ES and 3081 SPX
cash area. If we see this 3045 SPX area reached in the coming days,
we should start looking for a strong 100-150+ SP counter trend
rally into early next week as there is strong statistical research
that suggests we are higher next week, above the 3165 SPX. 1st
level of support is at 3081 SPX Trendline support, 3061 SPX, the
61.8% retrace and then major support at the 200 DMA at 3044.53 SPX,
where the Fund managers automatic Buy programs kicks in. MOB
support is wave 1 High at 3028 SPX, below that is Tunnel Price
target at 2991.54 SPX, then 2954.10 SPX, the 5/1/19 larger wave (1)
High. We saw a wave 5 of (3) at the 2/19/20H. We are now in a large
wave (4) decline, which should last into May Lows. Ideally, we
should see a wave A March Low, see a B wave April High and a C wave
into May Lows. The Fears of spreading of the Corona virus globally
will be the fundamental cause of the current and upcoming
declines.
People get too charged up with politics today. I just
watch sports and play with my dogs these days. I did hear his
press release while on my home as I was listening to business news
and he really struck out on addressing the situation. He
should have just let the CDC speak and keep to bullet points of
some sort of action plan. Markets do not like uncertainty.
Matt and Steve. Here is a list of symbols I call my
"Coronavirus" momentum plays. NVAX, CELH, HFFG, EVFM, XAIR,
INSP, QDEL, EYE, PWFL, AEE and IOVA. Sift through these and
see if they fit any of your "buy" list criteria.
It has a wide band in the target zone and that is because of the
implied volatility. With futures selling off after Trump, we
have hit the lower end of the target now. We also hit the
61.8% retracement from the Oct 2019 Low.
The community is delayed by three days for non registered users.
Cannot wait until we get
Posted by ssaffer on 27th of Feb 2020 at 01:48 pm
Cannot wait until we get the runs all cleared up. Need to recover about 3081.
Wow.
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/north-koreas-first-confirmed-coronavirus-patient-shot-deadWell, that's one solution to the problem...
Posted by ssaffer on 27th of Feb 2020 at 01:46 pm
Wow.
On the 60 min. I
Boom, TGT zone hit.
Posted by ssaffer on 27th of Feb 2020 at 01:23 pm
On the 60 min. I have a short term tgt in the 320-325 SPY.
Panic - You are operating
SPX 2hr, 60 min, 15 min candle focus
Posted by ssaffer on 27th of Feb 2020 at 01:17 pm
Panic - You are operating in primordial brain (flight and fright). Your decisions will be emotional and not rational. I always try to keep this formula in my head when faced with a big decision. I/E. I(Intellect)/ E (emotion). So I always check in with this formula to see if I am overweight Intellect or else I am in an emotional mind and that could prove to be a bad decision.
I do not remember. I
does anyone trade seasonal futures like livestock or grains? I ...
Posted by ssaffer on 27th of Feb 2020 at 12:58 pm
I do not remember. I just trade SPY option, SPY ETF, ES futures and some stocks. I try to keep it simple.
I tired once years ago.
does anyone trade seasonal futures like livestock or grains? I ...
Posted by ssaffer on 27th of Feb 2020 at 12:44 pm
I tired once years ago. I was over my head when I started to trade Corn, Wheat, Soybeans, Live cattle and Hogs. The moves are tremendous and I learned Live Hogs is thinly traded and I got wiped out in 10 trades. -$50K in one week. That was my experience. I was not prepared for the huge price swings and volatility. It is a very fast game and expensive education.
Matt - I aint going
SPX 2hr, 60 min, 15 min candle focus
Posted by ssaffer on 27th of Feb 2020 at 12:27 pm
Matt - I aint going to lie. I was sweating this am with the free fall waiting for the market to catch a bid. Best thing I did was walk away from the screen and walk the dogs. Trust my work and know my defined risk. Days like these so important to have a trading plan and stay the course.
Boom, TGT zone hit.
Posted by ssaffer on 27th of Feb 2020 at 12:24 pm
Boom, TGT zone hit.
right on. MY TS was
The pullback after the initial move was gorgeous
Posted by ssaffer on 27th of Feb 2020 at 12:23 pm
right on. MY TS was going haywire this am., couldnt make any moves.
uncharted waters. Might need a
Posted by ssaffer on 26th of Feb 2020 at 09:23 pm
uncharted waters. Might need a rate cut sooner rather than later to get things moving back up.
Look at; VIR. i
Posted by ssaffer on 26th of Feb 2020 at 09:19 pm
Look at; VIR. i was going to take a position on Friday near the 50 day MA and I had a work CC and forgot about it. Dang, what a move. Wait for pullback to the 28-30 area.
Forgot one more: CODX.
Matt and Steve. Here is a list of symbols I ...
Posted by ssaffer on 26th of Feb 2020 at 09:14 pm
Forgot one more: CODX.
The SPX saw a volatile
Posted by ssaffer on 26th of Feb 2020 at 09:02 pm
The SPX saw a volatile day, with a sharp 53.90 SP gap & rally to a 10.55HOD at 3182.51 SPX, reversed a sharp 73.52 SP’s to lower Lows at 1.50LOD at 3108.99 SPX and closed lower, down -11.82 at 3116.39 SPX. This volatility is not for the faint of heart! Markets are deeply oversold and we have seen 5 strong consecutive Panic down days in a row, we are in a crash wave. Panics are difficult to predict, as it ignores normal T&C CITs, but lower Lows are likely out there and the 200 DMA at 3044.53 SPX acts as a magnet, but this steep decline phase could be over sooner than later, perhaps in the next few days. We were looking for a 300 SP decline from the 2/19H at 3393.50 SPX, which we got at the 1/26/18H-9/21/18H-7/26/19H trendline at the 3090 /ES and 3081 SPX cash area. If we see this 3045 SPX area reached in the coming days, we should start looking for a strong 100-150+ SP counter trend rally into early next week as there is strong statistical research that suggests we are higher next week, above the 3165 SPX. 1st level of support is at 3081 SPX Trendline support, 3061 SPX, the 61.8% retrace and then major support at the 200 DMA at 3044.53 SPX, where the Fund managers automatic Buy programs kicks in. MOB support is wave 1 High at 3028 SPX, below that is Tunnel Price target at 2991.54 SPX, then 2954.10 SPX, the 5/1/19 larger wave (1) High. We saw a wave 5 of (3) at the 2/19/20H. We are now in a large wave (4) decline, which should last into May Lows. Ideally, we should see a wave A March Low, see a B wave April High and a C wave into May Lows. The Fears of spreading of the Corona virus globally will be the fundamental cause of the current and upcoming declines.
Agreed. Cut out the
Trump press release
Posted by ssaffer on 26th of Feb 2020 at 08:47 pm
Agreed. Cut out the noise so you can make rational, educated decisions.
People get too charged up
Trump press release
Posted by ssaffer on 26th of Feb 2020 at 08:41 pm
People get too charged up with politics today. I just watch sports and play with my dogs these days. I did hear his press release while on my home as I was listening to business news and he really struck out on addressing the situation. He should have just let the CDC speak and keep to bullet points of some sort of action plan. Markets do not like uncertainty.
Matt and Steve. Here is
Posted by ssaffer on 26th of Feb 2020 at 08:39 pm
Matt and Steve. Here is a list of symbols I call my "Coronavirus" momentum plays. NVAX, CELH, HFFG, EVFM, XAIR, INSP, QDEL, EYE, PWFL, AEE and IOVA. Sift through these and see if they fit any of your "buy" list criteria.
SPY Weekly EW target.
Posted by ssaffer on 26th of Feb 2020 at 08:27 pm
SPY Weekly EW target. I believe we bounce around higher for a while and then we hit wave IV target here.
It has a wide band
For you Elliot Wave fans. My target on the Daily ...
Posted by ssaffer on 26th of Feb 2020 at 08:17 pm
It has a wide band in the target zone and that is because of the implied volatility. With futures selling off after Trump, we have hit the lower end of the target now. We also hit the 61.8% retracement from the Oct 2019 Low.
For you Elliot Wave fans.
Posted by ssaffer on 26th of Feb 2020 at 04:42 pm
For you Elliot Wave fans. My target on the Daily SPY was met today (311.78). Call it impulse II.
Very overbought at the moment
VXRT Updated View
Posted by ssaffer on 26th of Feb 2020 at 04:18 pm
Very overbought at the moment but on the Weekly i have a target around $4. But I do think you are correct to have tight stops right now.