SLV - looking at wave 3 down tgt this am. Wave 4 up move next then final 5 in next several weeks.  My two cents. 

Boys. Seeing a temp bottom in the making today. 0% bullishness. Screams buy to me.  Bargain shopping today.

MRNA.  Seems to be the winner in the race for a vaccine.  Being supported by the NIH.  Buying this one on the dips. 

LRN.  Online education. Posted this one,last week.  All school closings and now new demand for online education. Popping today. 

Blue Apron!!! I posted a week ago or so that this beaten up stock had great potential to move with the Coronavirus and people seeking food and delivery. It's popping today. 

On the gap down I bought. Aapl, nvda, tsco, tmo, hd and OXY.  

MRNA.  https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/government-official-coronavirus-vaccine-trial-starts-monday/ar-BB11ecp5?ocid=ientp

Yeesus!  

My personal tgt charts for now, Short term SPY has met my targets, see how things play out tomorrow am to get a better idea of the bias.   Things can change on a dime with Fed pumping liquidity but these are my targets going into this week.   I threw in the SPY Monthly as my long term tgt, right now my bias is still bearish and this may take into beginning of May to play out for the 4th wave down tgt area.   High statistical probability see a corrective bounce up through April.   GDP data comes out on April 29th, we could see a big revision with Coronavirus and get that last leg down to Wave 4 target then.  If we do get down to wave 4, should be a buy of the ages for the next ramp up for the final 5/5.    Just my two cents.   

TLT - posted this projection on 03-08-2020, that tgt was met.   People who held got crushed this week.

I do believe we get a retest of some sort tomorrow into Tuesday to set a bear trap.    If it gaps up Monday and hits the 280 region, I will put on a short day trade (higher risk) or if it breaks below the new channel at $269, then a more aggressive short position.  But only day trades.  The Fed has made it clear that they will be buying the market so I think the easy money has been made already on the short side.  

I bought May 15 Calls ATM last Wednesday.  Giddy up!

With Antiviral drugs, Time is of the essence.  You have  a window of the first 24-36 hours.  Ex. Tamiflu.   Before the viral load gets too high in the body.  The real need is that every state has to have the ability to test people at every clinic, office, etc.. If you have to send out a test and it takes 3 days to get back results, you have missed that window of opportunity to treat with an antiviral (at least giving the best odds of working).  You have to weigh out the risk/reward ratio with any drug.  If the drug causes liver toxicity (is it acute or chronic).  Ex.  If you drink heavily one night (alcohol) then you will have acute liver toxicity.   That doesn't mean your live will go on to fail.  Your liver is one of the few organs that cells can reproduce/repair new cells.  So, if you have a person that is high risk and could die from the Coronavirus, I would say that the reward is higher than risk to take the antiviral.  There is no "one size fits all" when treating complex cases/co-morbidity.  And 12 patients does not make for a great study, your "P" values will not be too good.  Just the same as  bascktesting, the more data you have the better you can test your system.  Now, we are in new territory with this novel virus, so sometimes you have work with what you have at the moment until proven otherwise.   The private sector is the only one that will bring about different solutions to fight this virus, not the government ( recent test kit debacle). 

LRN.  Got into this stock yesterday.  Online education.  With all schools cancelling and going to online education for the students for now.  Nice pop so far. 

Went long $ES 2740 today.   Once I saw TLT selling off. 

Glad I went on vacation and had not had a chance to check on my MES longs that I placed on Monday or else I might have panicked sold.  

The need oil above $50.  Although I am sure they were heavily short before they dropped the mother of all bombs Sunday right before futures began trading. Not good actors in my opinion.  

100%.  

$ES 2850 - I can smell it.  Higher lows.  

Time to take the week off.  Kids have spring break and off to Taos New Mexico to ski (no reported cases of Coronavirus in that state yet, so cross my fingers).  Matt and Steve please push the markets up while I am gone, so I can count my money on Friday.