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Your perspective on the SLV, puma?

Posted by sonia on 25th of May 2010 at 04:28 pm

puma, really have enjoyed and been impressed with your tech. analysis of the metals and miner ETFs charts, and the EUR/USD.  What do you think about SLV from here?  It almost looks like it could rise to $18 or over from here, and would be a beautiful H & S, with the head at approx. 19, neckline about 17, and possibly get to the target 15 level you said it may sink to previously.    What do you think at this point?

more ?s on the dollar

Posted by sonia on 25th of May 2010 at 04:05 pm

About 6 AM today, the dollar futures-@DX at Tradestation, seemed to double top with a high of 87.55, very close to the top last Tue. of 87.625 (don't know why, thought it was last Wed., but it was a week ago Tue. night about 8PM).   RSI and some other indicators looked weaker and had negative divergence from the first double top, and the dollar futures have been selling off since then.

Would that possibly indicate that the top has been put in on the dollar, or is it a wait and see situation like was stated about the EUR/USD completing the move down?    Guess we'll have to see how the @DX futures act if and when they get down to the next low after the previous double top from last Friday around 85.5, if they bounce or keep going through that level?    Thanks for any extra info.    My computer speakers are on the fritz and haven't been able to hear audio since before the weekend newsletters.

The dollar

Posted by sonia on 24th of May 2010 at 10:11 am

According to Matt & Steve's great newsletters, the dollar reached it's profit target at just over 87 1/2 cents on 5/19-last Wed., and then pulled back 2 cents through Friday.  It gapped up between Fri. close and Sun. night's open and rallied to around 86.6 cents, is still in that area, although it is bouncing back and forth on the short term charts, the RSI is weakening on each ensuing bounce on the 15, 30 and 60 min. charts. so I expect it to go back to the pullback started last week soon, and this seems to be just a wave 2 on a daily chart.  If so, when wave 3 down begins, it should be good for the EUR/USD, commodities, and the market, even if it's just a several day or couple week bounce.   Any thoughts, Matt, Steve, puma?

good idea

Gold stocks

Posted by sonia on 24th of May 2010 at 09:52 am

good move. I was wondering about that as I was typing my congratulatory post on holding the metal stocks over the weekend a few minutes ago, it was steadily selling off after the gap up.  Now pushing up again, this is a wild market with fast big swings in everything.  I look at currencies, and the EUR/USD was falling most of the night, and the futures were WAY down a couple hours ago, then the dollar pulled back, and the futures opened only a little down, now the dollar has pushed up again in the last few minutes, and fallen again, moving commodities and the markets back and forth quickly and erratically...crazy.

good trade, rank10

Posted by sonia on 24th of May 2010 at 09:37 am

I remember you said you were going to hold your mining stocks through the weekend, and it looks good today.  GDX gapped up from just over $47 to 48 and kept rising.  Hopefully your mining stocks followed suit.  Good trade, now just have to refer to and be aware of Matt, Steve and puma's charts of the upside resistance, fibs, and possible targets in gold and the GDX.

thanks for letting us know...

GDX

Posted by sonia on 21st of May 2010 at 04:20 pm

thanks for letting us know what you did, rank10.  It really looked like after the gap down first thing this AM, in both commodities and the market, they moved up in a wave 1, then pulled back in a wave 2, and started the beginning of a wave 3 advance into the close today.   Hope so for your sake and trade, and would be nice too if this leads into a recovery from the recent 12% correction for the market, and can take longs again.  Wouldn't mind another rocketship up like from Feb.-April back to a double top of 1220, but that's getting too optimistic, have to take what the market gives us.

You Too Steve, Matt, Everyone...

Have a Nice Weekend

Posted by sonia on 21st of May 2010 at 04:07 pm

If you're still there, can you share before the close?  After that big gap down and rally up this AM, gold and silver have pulled back most of the way from today's top, could even leave an inverted hammer on the daily chart.  Matt or Steve, do you think the pullback is a wave 2 pullback, or rolling over and going lower?

It's all lining up...

Gold Chart -- Wedge and Engulfing candles

Posted by sonia on 21st of May 2010 at 02:36 pm

excellent chart, puma.  As you pointed out, it's at the end of the wedge and dropping, all the indicators have negative divergence, have moved lower as the price moved higher, and the RSI, MACD, and both long and short term slow stochastics seem to be rolling over with price and heading down.

thanks foolwise

Gold Futures

Posted by sonia on 21st of May 2010 at 02:18 pm

thanks for explaining that, foolwise.    I just asked Steve before I saw your answer.  Well then, thanks to Matt, Steve and stockcharts that info is made available to us through them.    I misunderstood Matt and Steve's last couple weekend newsletters explaining the mechanical GDX system, thought they were automating it through TS, and wondered if there was a symbol there to do it with.   Must be a manual mechanical system, entered into by hand when it reverses through the 8 MA.   Is that right, Matt and Steve?

Gold Futures, $BPGDM symbols at TS?

Gold Futures

Posted by sonia on 21st of May 2010 at 01:18 pm

Thanks Steve for the support and resistance on the gold futures, your and Matt's great newletters nightly, and fantastic TA and charts throughout the day.  I just recently got Tradestation, what are the symbols for the $BPGDM and gold and silver futures there?  Also added some services and exchanges in the last couple days, had the free forex charts, but added the ICE/NYBOT free service so it shows the dollar as @DX in real time, which is great to see and chart inverse to the EUR/USD.  Don't think oil (@CL) or copper futures, or the 3 market's futures are offered through the free ICE/NYBOT service, unless you know other futures symbols through that exchange with TS.  Thanks again for any help with this, still getting to know the differences in market and other symbols at TS.

gdx found support

EWA v GDX

Posted by sonia on 21st of May 2010 at 11:10 am

GDX started showing a lot of positive RSI divergence today, even on the 30 and 60 min. charts.   It found support as I discussed earlier, at the April lows between 45.5 and 46 (at 45.88).   It's at 47 1/2 now, would like to see it get above 48 to break out of the downtrending channels on the 30 and 60 min. charts.   Today's spike down, even with the subsequent rally, only extended the bullish wedge on the daily chart, and it still hasn't got above 20 on the 60, 3 slow stochastics on Matt & Steve's GDX 15 min. dynamic stockchart.

GDX wedge and support

EWA v GDX

Posted by sonia on 21st of May 2010 at 08:22 am

Just as puma showed yesterday with GLD, the GDX, probably like the markets and most everything on intraday charts, is in a huge bullish falling wedge.   Going to be looking for more downside with gold and the market first, could be a washout or at least a big bounce today or very soon to break out above the wedge.   Checking Matt and Steve's chart of the 60 min. GDX on their "useful dynamic stockcharts" page, there is support in the 45.5-46 area from 2-3 times in April, and below that, there are unfilled gaps between 44-45 from late March-early April that it could reach and fill before a reversal.   If you look at their 15 min. chart of GDX on the same page, which also shows the GDX/GLD ratio, there is positive divergence on the MACD, 

As Matt and Steve say with the market tomorrow in looking for a long entry, look for divergences on the shorter timeframe charts.   EUR/USD only pulled back to 1.2453 so far, but it's trying to form a base and reverse, and showing positive divergence, even looking better on 10-15 min. charts now.  That may have been close enough for gov't work, will see how the divergences and base plays out from here, may not get back down to 1.244.  Be careful though and use stops, the volatility is a lot higher than stocks with fast and wild swings. don't want to be caught on the wrong side of the trade.

EUR/USD and dollar neckline retest

Posted by sonia on 20th of May 2010 at 05:16 pm

Thanks to puma's excellent TA of the EUR/USD, he showed how it was in an inverted H & S, and broke out, also credit Matt and Steve showing it in a bullish falling wedge it broke out of today.  It looks like on the flip side, the dollar was in a regular H & S pattern, and broke down through the neckline at the same time the EUR/USD broke up through it's inverted neckline.  Now that the EURUSD has started to pullback from that breakthrough this afternoon, it seems to want to retest the neckline around 1.2440, and the US dollar to retest it's neckline around the 86.4 area.  Going to wait for the retest to go long again on the EURUSD, and/or short the dollar.

the PPT?

EUR/USD

Posted by sonia on 20th of May 2010 at 02:07 pm

Savoir Fare (the Plunge Protection Team) is EVERYWHERE!

EUR/USD

Posted by sonia on 20th of May 2010 at 01:56 pm

Just got home from an appointment, looking at my Forex account, the insider news is that a macro buyer bought north of 400 mil. EUR/USD between 1:00-1:30 PM EST, causing a huge spike, and seems to coincide with the market pulling back up off the lows.  Missed it, the EUR/USD went up over 150 pips in about half an hour.

TGB

Posted by sonia on 13th of May 2010 at 11:53 am

TGB-Taseko Mines Ltd.  , had a nice pop today too in the gold sector, almost 10%, from $5.50 to $6.

This one's the best by far..

Fractal Market guy

Posted by sonia on 13th of May 2010 at 11:26 am

I was watching his charts in 07-08, and he kept calling for new highs as the market was crashing, saying it was just a little pullback and the market would surge to record highs.  My friend's been in the market for many years, researched his charts for months, and found no rhyme or reason to the "fractal lines" on his charts, no consistent link between them and market price.  He concluded the fractal guy uses other tech. analysis, and claims to use "fractals" because it seems mysterious and keeps subscribers guessing and coming back for more.  In the few days here, Matt and Steve's analysis is far and away the best I've ever seen, between the newsletters and the wide array. expertise, and combination of confirming tech. analysis.

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