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Posted by skyhansen on 31st of Mar 2020 at 02:21 am

I think you have to wait for a larger portion of the 24,142 reported cases to move from reported to either recovered or died to calculate an accurate mortality.  That will be much higher than 0.1%.  The worldwide tracker has a ration between recovered and deceased that yields a mortality rate over 10%.  However, given many cases are also not confirmed, the reported case numbers will be too low which means the actual mortality rate will be lower than that.  Bottom line:  I don’t think we have the data to know true mortality rate.  We do appear to have more accurate information on transmission and evidence that the virus is 2-3x more transmittable than flu.  That means that even if the mortality rate is equivalent, the health care system will be overwhelmed resulting in more deaths than would otherwise occur.....and not only among people contracting the virus.  The social distancing and stay at home orders are not in place for our safety, but to prevent the healthcare system from being overwhelmed and thereby causing a much higher death rate such as they are experiencing in Italy where the ratio of recovered patients to deaths is 1:1 or a 50% death rate so far in the population of diagnosed patients who have moved from diagnosed to either recovered or dead.

China PMI After-Hours:


 


Actual Est Prior
Mnfct PMI                35.7              45.1              50.0
Non-Mnfct PMI                29.6              51.4              54.1

Lot's of things starting to leave their wedges to the downside

Hog, pigs get fat.  Hogs get slaughtered.

Interesting: 

 



Gold Silver


Commercial High for Commercial High for


Short Week Short Week
Week of April 17,2017
          (211,064) $       1,294.80           (116,832) $            18.66
Week of December 9, 2019
          (322,787) $       1,489.90             (74,299) $            16.83
  Change
           111,723 $        (195.10)             (42,533) $              1.83


-53% -15% 36% 10%


Since the April 17, 2017 high of $18.66 for Silver, gold commercial net short has increased over 50% while gold prices have increased 15%.  Conversely, Silver prices have fallen 10% and commercial net short has fallen by 36%.  It would appear that, relative to Gold, Silver has more room to run given the relative commercial short interest.

Because so many people want

BYND

Posted by skyhansen on 14th of Oct 2019 at 11:43 am

Because so many people want to short the stock, if you own some, you can lend your shares at over 50% interest a week.  It's different each week, but a great way to earn yield if you own BYND

/SI Backtested Support/Breakout level perfectly

Posted by skyhansen on 27th of Sep 2019 at 12:07 pm

/SI Backtested Support/Breakout level perfectly at $17.345

Interestingly on ES the MA

SPX 60 min comments

Posted by skyhansen on 3rd of Sep 2019 at 03:42 pm

Interestingly on ES the MA ribbon is pinching the other way - from the  underside.

NYMO has a long way to go to the lower BB on the daily and there is an open gap around 2740 SPX

Agree - I would prefer individual charts for each and would manage (add or subtract) as appropriate to positions

Summer can be slow -

SPY system could go back long today

Posted by skyhansen on 23rd of May 2019 at 03:13 pm

Summer can be slow - might extend the trade?


It’s interesting how the cash

SPX 15 min MA ribbon

Posted by skyhansen on 11th of Jan 2019 at 12:07 pm

It’s interesting how the cash and futures moving average ribbons can be opposite of one another on certain time frames - like 15 min SPX vs /ES right now - I suppose cash rules because lower volume overnight futures action impacts longer moving average time frames disproportionately…

No worries - sorry to

Renko ES

Posted by skyhansen on 14th of Mar 2018 at 07:58 pm

No worries - sorry to hear that.  Feel better/don't get it!

Hi Matt, How do I get

Renko ES

Posted by skyhansen on 14th of Mar 2018 at 06:08 pm

Hi Matt,
How do I get the TS workspace?  Alternatively, I can set it up if you provide the parameters for f the various studies…I can’t tell exactly from the screenshot.  Thanks!

Hi Matt, please share the

Renko ES

Posted by skyhansen on 13th of Mar 2018 at 07:57 pm

Hi Matt, please share the TS workspace on this when you get a chance.  Thank you!

TF has the same pattern........

ES 60 View

Posted by skyhansen on 18th of Nov 2016 at 08:49 am

Stoch 80 Short

Posted by skyhansen on 26th of Sep 2016 at 12:54 pm

Does it look like the Stochastic 80 might take a short today?

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