Posted by skyhansen on 21st of Mar 2020 at 05:57 pm
I think you have to wait for a larger portion of the 24,142
reported cases to move from reported to either recovered or died to
calculate an accurate mortality. That will be much higher
than 0.1%. The worldwide tracker has a ration between
recovered and deceased that yields a mortality rate over 10%.
However, given many cases are also not confirmed, the
reported case numbers will be too low which means the actual
mortality rate will be lower than that. Bottom line: I
don’t think we have the data to know true mortality rate. We
do appear to have more accurate information on transmission and
evidence that the virus is 2-3x more transmittable than flu.
That means that even if the mortality rate is equivalent, the
health care system will be overwhelmed resulting in more deaths
than would otherwise occur.....and not only among people
contracting the virus. The social distancing and stay at home
orders are not in place for our safety, but to prevent the
healthcare system from being overwhelmed and thereby causing a much
higher death rate such as they are experiencing in Italy where the
ratio of recovered patients to deaths is 1:1 or a 50% death rate so
far in the population of diagnosed patients who have moved from
diagnosed to either recovered or dead.
Posted by skyhansen on 11th of Dec 2019 at 08:02 pm
Interesting:
Gold
Silver
Commercial
High for
Commercial
High for
Short
Week
Short
Week
Week of April 17,2017
(211,064)
$ 1,294.80
(116,832)
$
18.66
Week of December 9, 2019
(322,787)
$ 1,489.90
(74,299)
$
16.83
Change
111,723
$ (195.10)
(42,533)
$
1.83
-53%
-15%
36%
10%
Since the April 17, 2017 high of $18.66 for Silver, gold
commercial net short has increased over 50% while gold prices have
increased 15%. Conversely, Silver prices have fallen 10% and
commercial net short has fallen by 36%. It would appear that,
relative to Gold, Silver has more room to run given the relative
commercial short interest.
Posted by skyhansen on 14th of Oct 2019 at 11:43 am
Because so many people want to short the stock, if you own some,
you can lend your shares at over 50% interest a week. It's
different each week, but a great way to earn yield if you own
BYND
Posted by skyhansen on 11th of Jan 2019 at 12:07 pm
It’s interesting how the cash and futures moving average ribbons
can be opposite of one another on certain time frames - like 15 min
SPX vs /ES right now - I suppose cash rules because lower volume
overnight futures action impacts longer moving average time frames
disproportionately…
Posted by skyhansen on 14th of Mar 2018 at 06:08 pm
Hi Matt,
How do I get the TS workspace? Alternatively, I can set
it up if you provide the parameters for f the various studies…I
can’t tell exactly from the screenshot. Thanks!
The community is delayed by three days for non registered users.
Posted by skyhansen on 31st of Mar 2020 at 02:21 am
I think you have to
Putting Covid-19 in perspective: I know that it is a ...
Posted by skyhansen on 21st of Mar 2020 at 05:57 pm
I think you have to wait for a larger portion of the 24,142 reported cases to move from reported to either recovered or died to calculate an accurate mortality. That will be much higher than 0.1%. The worldwide tracker has a ration between recovered and deceased that yields a mortality rate over 10%. However, given many cases are also not confirmed, the reported case numbers will be too low which means the actual mortality rate will be lower than that. Bottom line: I don’t think we have the data to know true mortality rate. We do appear to have more accurate information on transmission and evidence that the virus is 2-3x more transmittable than flu. That means that even if the mortality rate is equivalent, the health care system will be overwhelmed resulting in more deaths than would otherwise occur.....and not only among people contracting the virus. The social distancing and stay at home orders are not in place for our safety, but to prevent the healthcare system from being overwhelmed and thereby causing a much higher death rate such as they are experiencing in Italy where the ratio of recovered patients to deaths is 1:1 or a 50% death rate so far in the population of diagnosed patients who have moved from diagnosed to either recovered or dead.
China PMI After-Hours: Actual Est Prior Mnfct PMI
Posted by skyhansen on 28th of Feb 2020 at 08:12 pm
China PMI After-Hours:
Lot's of things starting to
ES....decision shhould come soon,Maybe another push up for completion of ...
Posted by skyhansen on 14th of Feb 2020 at 12:48 pm
Lot's of things starting to leave their wedges to the downside
Hog, pigs get fat. Hogs
AAPL {Big Picture}. Going absolutely parabolic since the 2019 bottom. ...
Posted by skyhansen on 25th of Jan 2020 at 10:55 pm
Hog, pigs get fat. Hogs get slaughtered.
Interesting: Gold Silver Commercial High for Commercial High for Short Week Short Week Week of April
New gold commercials back up to 322
Posted by skyhansen on 11th of Dec 2019 at 08:02 pm
Interesting:
Since the April 17, 2017 high of $18.66 for Silver, gold commercial net short has increased over 50% while gold prices have increased 15%. Conversely, Silver prices have fallen 10% and commercial net short has fallen by 36%. It would appear that, relative to Gold, Silver has more room to run given the relative commercial short interest.
Because so many people want
BYND
Posted by skyhansen on 14th of Oct 2019 at 11:43 am
Because so many people want to short the stock, if you own some, you can lend your shares at over 50% interest a week. It's different each week, but a great way to earn yield if you own BYND
/SI Backtested Support/Breakout level perfectly
Posted by skyhansen on 27th of Sep 2019 at 12:07 pm
/SI Backtested Support/Breakout level perfectly at $17.345
Interestingly on ES the MA
SPX 60 min comments
Posted by skyhansen on 3rd of Sep 2019 at 03:42 pm
Interestingly on ES the MA ribbon is pinching the other way - from the underside.
NYMO has a long way
VIX seems to be building NEG D. , does anyone ...
Posted by skyhansen on 23rd of Aug 2019 at 02:57 pm
NYMO has a long way to go to the lower BB on the daily and there is an open gap around 2740 SPX
Agree - I would prefer
SPY system comments and feedback needed
Posted by skyhansen on 12th of Jul 2019 at 06:32 pm
Agree - I would prefer individual charts for each and would manage (add or subtract) as appropriate to positions
Summer can be slow -
SPY system could go back long today
Posted by skyhansen on 23rd of May 2019 at 03:13 pm
Summer can be slow - might extend the trade?
It’s interesting how the cash
SPX 15 min MA ribbon
Posted by skyhansen on 11th of Jan 2019 at 12:07 pm
It’s interesting how the cash and futures moving average ribbons can be opposite of one another on certain time frames - like 15 min SPX vs /ES right now - I suppose cash rules because lower volume overnight futures action impacts longer moving average time frames disproportionately…
No worries - sorry to
Renko ES
Posted by skyhansen on 14th of Mar 2018 at 07:58 pm
No worries - sorry to hear that. Feel better/don't get it!
Hi Matt, How do I get
Renko ES
Posted by skyhansen on 14th of Mar 2018 at 06:08 pm
Hi Matt,
How do I get the TS workspace? Alternatively, I can set it up if you provide the parameters for f the various studies…I can’t tell exactly from the screenshot. Thanks!
Hi Matt, please share the
Renko ES
Posted by skyhansen on 13th of Mar 2018 at 07:57 pm
Hi Matt, please share the TS workspace on this when you get a chance. Thank you!
TF has the same pattern........
ES 60 View
Posted by skyhansen on 18th of Nov 2016 at 08:49 am
Stoch 80 Short
Posted by skyhansen on 26th of Sep 2016 at 12:54 pm
Does it look like the Stochastic 80 might take a short today?