Posted by simple_million on 14th of Jun 2022 at 06:14 pm
I mean they addressed the issue by saying 2 50's and then see
what happens when supply chains ease and war ends (eventually).
They can't have enough data to backtrack on "wait and see"
before the waiting and seeing lol.
I was bullish when thinking about event volatility and OPEX and
all that, but if they do 75bps (and assuming its not a pull forward
and pause) that seems like a panic move -- shouldn't that
lead to a panic reaction by the market?
It would be funny if eventually the narrative changes to needing
loose monetary policy to catch up to China -- can't let them keep
all those corporate profits for themselves!
Matt were you saying if the Fed pivots, that would strengthen
the case for all time high prices and a continuation of the bull
market? Or would a pivot just lead to the kind of wave 5 we
were looking for initially before prices retrace the whole bull
market, possibly to low 2000's over time?
I actually think we get disinflation soon (a few months) and a
pivot not too far behind (before midterms), but would the pivot
lead to more sustainable highs, or just more of a short term
spike?
Posted by simple_million on 17th of May 2022 at 10:33 pm
I thought Pow was getting pretty explicit about how talking
about tightening was doing the job of actual tightening , so a
couple 50 bps and wait and see is all we get -- anything more is
going to require more (worse) data -- that's quite a pivot from the
rumblings about 75-100 bps we were starting to hear.
Macro picture changing pretty rapidly too. Now we can
front run the disinflation data and the subsequent actual Powell
pivot. But we also "could" have done that months ago lol.
As you say, one level at a time :)
The community is delayed by three days for non registered users.
$CPE -25% today, nearing lower
Reopen stocks weak today, monkeypox catalyst Thursday https://www.newsweek.com/who-monkeypox-meeting-emergency-international-concern-pheic-1717673
Posted by simple_million on 21st of Jun 2022 at 11:11 pm
$CPE -25% today, nearing lower bands... What a difference a couple days makes!
Reopen stocks weak today, monkeypox
Posted by simple_million on 21st of Jun 2022 at 09:22 pm
Reopen stocks weak today, monkeypox catalyst Thursday https://www.newsweek.com/who-monkeypox-meeting-emergency-international-concern-pheic-1717673
$VVIX > 110. Is "superloaded"
Posted by simple_million on 16th of Jun 2022 at 10:52 pm
$VVIX > 110. Is "superloaded" a thing?
I mean they addressed the
50 basis points = drop down to 3650 in short ...
Posted by simple_million on 14th of Jun 2022 at 06:14 pm
I mean they addressed the issue by saying 2 50's and then see what happens when supply chains ease and war ends (eventually). They can't have enough data to backtrack on "wait and see" before the waiting and seeing lol.
I was bullish when thinking about event volatility and OPEX and all that, but if they do 75bps (and assuming its not a pull forward and pause) that seems like a panic move -- shouldn't that lead to a panic reaction by the market?
I don't understand the theory
50 basis points = drop down to 3650 in short ...
Posted by simple_million on 14th of Jun 2022 at 05:59 pm
I don't understand the theory of 75 bps being bullish AT ALL -- but I've seen that a lot on Fintwit the last few days as well.
Hes a joke in most
interesting take....not sure of this guys track record.https://youtu.be/4Df-sSy6APU
Posted by simple_million on 12th of Jun 2022 at 07:49 pm
Hes a joke in most circles, its worth looking up his calls over time to see whether you want to take him literally
It would be funny if
Japanese Yen
Posted by simple_million on 8th of Jun 2022 at 10:17 pm
It would be funny if eventually the narrative changes to needing loose monetary policy to catch up to China -- can't let them keep all those corporate profits for themselves!
Maybe SOX would make sense
Great Comment Here
Posted by simple_million on 7th of Jun 2022 at 02:12 pm
Maybe SOX would make sense for the system mix, especially in a bear market with their high beta and volatility.
Matt were you saying if
Weekend Newsletter
Posted by simple_million on 5th of Jun 2022 at 11:29 pm
Matt were you saying if the Fed pivots, that would strengthen the case for all time high prices and a continuation of the bull market? Or would a pivot just lead to the kind of wave 5 we were looking for initially before prices retrace the whole bull market, possibly to low 2000's over time?
I actually think we get disinflation soon (a few months) and a pivot not too far behind (before midterms), but would the pivot lead to more sustainable highs, or just more of a short term spike?
Are the systems more forgiving
systems
Posted by simple_million on 1st of Jun 2022 at 04:18 pm
Are the systems more forgiving on IWM? Nice bounce off 9 EMA. SOX similar.
Amazing -- What is this
ES 80+ points fade off yesterday's abbreviated session highs
Posted by simple_million on 31st of May 2022 at 09:45 am
Amazing -- What is this sub system intended to do? Scalp a morning dip, hold until EOD? Longer? Sorry if this was already discussed.
Happy birthday Matt! Thanks for
Posted by simple_million on 24th of May 2022 at 09:21 am
Happy birthday Matt! Thanks for being there through the worst market conditions and for the knowledge you share with us every day .
Looks like Tom Demark made
Don't forge SPX bounced off the 38% Fib almost to a tee
Posted by simple_million on 20th of May 2022 at 10:42 pm
Looks like Tom Demark made the call to Tom on Fundstrat (not a subscriber but you can see the webinar description)
Is it meaningful that lower
ARKK Daily
Posted by simple_million on 19th of May 2022 at 02:48 pm
Is it meaningful that lower quality ARKK (TDOC, PTON) has outperformed higher quality (DDOG/ZS) recently? Today maybe being an exception.
I thought Pow was getting
Ciovacco Comments
Posted by simple_million on 17th of May 2022 at 10:33 pm
I thought Pow was getting pretty explicit about how talking about tightening was doing the job of actual tightening , so a couple 50 bps and wait and see is all we get -- anything more is going to require more (worse) data -- that's quite a pivot from the rumblings about 75-100 bps we were starting to hear. Macro picture changing pretty rapidly too. Now we can front run the disinflation data and the subsequent actual Powell pivot. But we also "could" have done that months ago lol. As you say, one level at a time :)
Oops sorry, thought I remembered
H-L near 0 while QQQ at symmetry
Posted by simple_million on 17th of May 2022 at 01:58 pm
Oops sorry, thought I remembered one of the stockcharts versions updating in real time
H-L near 0 while QQQ
Posted by simple_million on 17th of May 2022 at 01:53 pm
H-L near 0 while QQQ at symmetry
XLE overcooked?
Posted by simple_million on 16th of May 2022 at 02:32 pm
XLE overcooked?
Hidden bullish divergence SPX 15m?
Posted by simple_million on 16th of May 2022 at 12:42 pm
Hidden bullish divergence SPX 15m?
ZS RSI divergence off the
Posted by simple_million on 16th of May 2022 at 11:22 am
ZS RSI divergence off the trend line