3309 Drysdale Ct
Edwardsville, IL 62025
$NAHL symmetry move and nearing 13 EMA cross... not sure what to
make of it -- a multi-year bottom is in, with months of chop
Holding on short SPX as long as this holds
Totally agree, China's setting up a moonshot
It turned my whole year around to find my own answers to those
same questions -- I've learned I'm long biased so every chart looks
like its going up even the ones that are just the inverse of
whatever I'm looking at lol. I use Matt's $NAHL indicator and
add that COMPQ has to close > 0 three days in a row AND SPX has
to close > 200 DMA. That's my checklist. Until/unless that
happens, its the "bear market playbook" for me:
1) Look primarily for mean reversion trades instead of trend
following (like the systems do)
2) Take profits aggressively instead of letting things run
3) Keep a large cash position and stay hedged/market neutral
most of the time.
Also I chose 3 days in a row bc Matt has mentioned it can close
> 0 1-2 days in a row during a bear market, so 3 should be more
meaningful -- its also not a buy signal, just a mindset change for
me, the bull market playbook is basically the opposite of the
Would be really interesting to hear what strategies are working
for other others right now.
Kyle Bass on cnbc ftw
How does the table on Chart 5 get updated? Is it an excel table
that gets updated EOD? I like the format and was thinking it would
be nice to monitor during the day
I'm surprised there wasn't any positive PR from the Xi
meeting... maybe like with WHO its just dumping to set up a more
favorable meeting later on.
The ratio underperforming is bad for XLE? Earnings
I think the idea is when Powell pivoted to 75bps and hawkish
rhetoric, he gained "credibility" and the market no longer feared
the 1970's-style situation you described, so it ripped higher.
THEN he could pivot dovish (lol) like today, with the market
ripping even higher. It makes sense if you think (as Powell
does) that easing supply chains, commodity prices topping, end of
war in Ukraine and a garden variety recession are enough to stamp
out enough inflation to at least take the hyperinflation narrative
off the table for now. Some inflation can stick around
without causing too much harm.
My own 2 cents, inflation is not as easy to predict or
understand as the Fintwit echo chamber would have you believe.
The actual depth of the recession we're getting into, whether
the US consumer can pay for things like food and housing going
forward, and whether inflation starts and stops regardless of what
the Fed does -- no one knows that stuff right now, the data has to
reveal that over time.
This kinda looks bearish? Not sure
Nice one! Looks like these cash and labor intensive co's
are in for a rough earnings season. Maybe especially
You nailed it
Burry seems into it
Just an idea for the site, it would be great to be able to go
back and click on the links in older newsletters, especially useful
to see how the indicators looked at various points in time and
click to see how they changed. I only have a few of them
saved. Several showing overbought conditions (or starting to,
I think). P.S Any idea what's happening in that $NYUD chart?
Maybe a stockcharts error?
Any of the systems approaching a short, Matt? If we're short
term overbought in a bear market I'd guess something might be
approaching a trigger.
That must be it lol! I think the trades were from as much as 3
weeks ago, which is probably even more scandalous when you think
about the broader market timing. Still might be more alpha in
following trades in names like PLUG, FCEL, things that kind of
depend on Congress to survive rather than deep ITM calls on NVDA or
whatever but worth keeping an eye on all of them.
I wonder why Pelosi gets all the attention
Uranium setting up $URA
TBF they probably run a business better than most of the Tiger
Former fintwit fav $PSNL teasing another breakout. Daily
symmetry at $4.50 or so. Trading well below cash
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