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$NAHL symmetry move and nearing

Posted by simple_million on 4th of Aug 2022 at 12:10 pm

$NAHL symmetry move and nearing 13 EMA cross... not sure what to make of it -- a multi-year bottom is in, with months of chop first? 

Holding on short SPX as

Posted by simple_million on 2nd of Aug 2022 at 04:10 pm

Holding on short SPX as long as this holds 

It turned my whole year around to find my own answers to those same questions -- I've learned I'm long biased so every chart looks like its going up even the ones that are just the inverse of whatever I'm looking at lol.  I use Matt's $NAHL indicator and add that COMPQ has to close > 0 three days in a row AND SPX has to close > 200 DMA. That's my checklist. Until/unless that happens, its the "bear market playbook" for me:

1) Look primarily for mean reversion trades instead of trend following (like the  systems do)

2) Take profits aggressively instead of letting things run

3) Keep a large cash position and stay hedged/market neutral most of the time.

Also I chose 3 days in a row bc Matt has mentioned it can close > 0 1-2 days in a row during a bear market, so 3 should be more meaningful -- its also not a buy signal, just a mindset change for me, the bull market playbook is basically the opposite of the bear. 

Would be really interesting to hear what strategies are working for other others right now. 

Kyle Bass on cnbc ftw 

Posted by simple_million on 1st of Aug 2022 at 03:13 pm

Kyle Bass on cnbc ftw 

How does the table on Chart 5 get updated? Is it an excel table that gets updated EOD? I like the format and was thinking it would be nice to monitor during the day 

I'm surprised there wasn't any positive PR from the Xi meeting... maybe like with WHO its just dumping to set up a more favorable meeting later on. 

The ratio underperforming is bad

Posted by simple_million on 27th of Jul 2022 at 08:16 pm

The ratio underperforming is bad for XLE?   Earnings coming up

I think the idea is when Powell pivoted to 75bps and hawkish rhetoric, he gained "credibility" and the market no longer feared the 1970's-style situation you described, so it ripped higher.  THEN he could pivot dovish (lol) like today, with the market ripping even higher.  It makes sense if you think (as Powell does) that easing supply chains, commodity prices topping, end of war in Ukraine and a garden variety recession are enough to stamp out enough inflation to at least take the hyperinflation narrative off the table for now.  Some inflation can stick around without causing too much harm.  

My own 2 cents, inflation is not as easy to predict or understand as the Fintwit echo chamber would have you believe.  The actual depth of the recession we're getting into, whether the US consumer can pay for things like food and housing going forward, and whether inflation starts and stops regardless of what the Fed does -- no one knows that stuff right now, the data has to reveal that over time.  

This kinda looks bearish? Not sure 

Nice one!  Looks like these

CCI - breaking down

Posted by simple_million on 25th of Jul 2022 at 03:09 pm

Nice one!  Looks like these cash and labor intensive co's are in for a rough earnings season.  Maybe especially REITs

You nailed it 

Just an idea for the site, it would be great to be able to go back and click on the links in older newsletters, especially useful to see how the indicators looked at various points in time and click to see how they changed.  I only have a few of them saved.  Several showing overbought conditions (or starting to, I think).  P.S Any idea what's happening in that $NYUD chart? Maybe a stockcharts error? 

Any of the systems approaching

Posted by simple_million on 19th of Jul 2022 at 02:57 pm

Any of the systems approaching a short, Matt? If we're short term overbought in a bear market I'd guess something might be approaching a trigger. 

That must be it lol! I think the trades were from as much as 3 weeks ago, which is probably even more scandalous when you think about the broader market timing. Still might be more alpha in following trades in names like PLUG, FCEL, things that kind of depend on Congress to survive rather than deep ITM calls on NVDA or whatever but worth keeping an eye on all of them. 

 I wonder why Pelosi gets all the attention 

Uranium setting up $URA

Posted by simple_million on 13th of Jul 2022 at 05:04 pm

Uranium setting up $URA

TBF they probably run a

Article LOL

Posted by simple_million on 12th of Jul 2022 at 04:29 pm

TBF they probably run a business better than most of the Tiger 40

Former fintwit fav $PSNL teasing another breakout. Daily symmetry at $4.50 or so. Trading well below cash


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