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Secular Cycles

Posted by sandiegosam on 13th of May 2026 at 06:53 pm


Does this chart suggest that the market will march to 12-15k SP BEFORE a bear?  You had been saying that you expect a bear to appear this year.  In that case, you would be looking at a bear 26-28/29 followed by a march to 12k...Is that right?

the 50 200 gap

Posted by sandiegosam on 9th of Apr 2026 at 09:09 am

The SPY has opened above both its 50 and 200 DMA’s while closing below both the day prior just three other times,
Those three period saw IMMEDIATE declines of -13%, -16%, and -13% over the next few weeks.

Case 1 April 2001 – 13% decline
Case 2 July 2002 -16% decline
Case 3 May 2008 -13% decline

What do you notice about these dates?
All occurred within conspicuous, undeniable Bear Markets.



gap above 50 and 200

Posted by sandiegosam on 9th of Apr 2026 at 08:58 am

I saw some stat but haven't searched to confirm (maybe somebody here has better and quicker accessible data) that when the SP gaps above both the 50 and 200, the SP saw immediate declines of 13, 16 and 13% - only happened 3 times.  Can anybody confirm?

Matt - check out www.leveragedposition.com

Posted by sandiegosam on 18th of Mar 2026 at 05:55 pm

Maybe you can build a separate KISS system for all of these technical breakouts with doubles.  If can time these right, can make a fortune fast on pure technical setup.  Look at MUU and SNXX most recently for example.  Ditto AGQ

I have used Etrade Pro for several years.  They retired it and the new platform is dismal.  IBKR TWS platform is clunky and hard to use and frustrating.  Sterling Trader is an API and is quite good for use at IBKR.  I here SCHW and Fidelity are lame and not good.  Anybody else on something different?

SLV looks like breakout from this flag

GLD/SLV/GDX 10m

Posted by sandiegosam on 13th of Feb 2026 at 02:02 pm

tons of whipsaw

SQQQ and QQQ easy

Posted by sandiegosam on 11th of Feb 2026 at 11:22 am

tons of whipsaw

what would the SPY target

RSI 40 long

Posted by sandiegosam on 9th of Feb 2026 at 11:19 am

what would the SPY target be here or what has been the average move off of this signal?

great chart

any fib numbers SLV Matt?

Posted by sandiegosam on 30th of Jan 2026 at 12:58 pm

Solar -

Posted by sandiegosam on 22nd of Jan 2026 at 01:18 pm

ARRY has been awful but appears to be breaking out finally here!  is it sustainable = no clue

meaning LONG SPY?  or LONG SPXU?

Never looked at it, but

Posted by sandiegosam on 23rd of Dec 2025 at 12:49 pm

Never looked at it, but NIKL is busting a move...anybody follow Nickel?

NRGV, ELVA, INV = today's

Posted by sandiegosam on 11th of Dec 2025 at 02:26 pm

NRGV, ELVA, INV = today's EOSE, BE, etc.  new names

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