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XLP backtest

Posted by kevink on 8th of Oct 2026 at 03:03 pm

guys, there is a nice backtest forming on XLP.  This is consumer staples -- a defensive sector (money rotates into it when stocks drop)


Thanks for the tutorial - I have not listened to it yet but the slide looks nice.

I second that tutorial -- yes please - I have been trying to understand these zones too and to draw them....  drew my first one today but have no idea if it is right

So artificial.  It was probably a bout of Q.E.

Heads up on this chart,

SMTI - interesting chart

Posted by kevink on 11th of Sep 2026 at 01:57 pm

Heads up on this chart, since any of the members reading here could have chosen to dabble in this, FYI I just found out facts which could take this stock either way:
SMTI is currently the subject of a proposed acquisition by MiMedx Group (MDXG). Under the terms of the proposed transaction, SMTI shareholders would receive $33.00 in cash plus 0.4735 shares of MiMedx common stock for each SMTI share owned.  There are legal investigations underway about the valuation.  

So in other words, this is very risky in either direction.  I would not risk more than a few $grand, if anything.

SMTI - interesting chart

Posted by kevink on 10th of Sep 2026 at 12:42 pm

https://stockcharts.com/sc3/ui/?s=SMTI

SMTI


Massive volume surge after the spike a month ago.  Oh yeah, reported earnings after the spike and it MISSED BADLY (if I am reading it right). Still, the trend remains up in a basing channel.

Thanks for the timely reminder. Sometimes the ticks hypnotize you and you forget where you are...

thanks guys for the links

Reading Candlesticks

Posted by kevink on 4th of Sep 2026 at 12:40 am

thanks guys for the links - i'll take a look through (blippy, i need read access)

That's actually a good opinion

Reading Candlesticks

Posted by kevink on 3rd of Sep 2026 at 05:04 pm

That's actually a good opinion - I looked at "37..." ... and am like ... 'how do I do this...' !! LOL but I still would like to sink my mind into at least a once over reading.  

(After all, I think we're still at 98% of empty space up there, I'm pretty sure.  Note some other guy with 98% of air up there made this call for all of us, decades ago, and it's stuck.)

Blippy1 try posting that link

Reading Candlesticks

Posted by kevink on 3rd of Sep 2026 at 04:55 pm

Blippy1 try posting that link again - it did not open. But a search on Nison reveals at least two books: "Japanese Candlestick Charting Techniques:..." and "Beyond Candlesticks..."

Reading Candlesticks

Posted by kevink on 3rd of Sep 2026 at 04:41 pm

Can anyone recommend a book or a website that covers candlesticks in detail -- I found a few sites but they don't provide a complete analysis of implications when the pattern appears.

Actually if I spend a little more time on this one, it's not bad TBH:   37 Candlesticks dictionary

[I was not happy at first.  because I was drawn quickly to the pic, and didn't see much explanation, but it turns out there is a left side panel that dives into many, if not all]

In any case please share any resources you like, and do please brag  loudly if you've found one you absolutely think is the best.

Yes this was a fantastic one - dropped hard yesterday, [almost] retested this morning and dropped even harder than yesterday.


DOCN: GREAT SHORT MATT.

FCEL, ENS, DOCN

Posted by kevink on 1st of Sep 2026 at 10:14 am

DOCN: GREAT SHORT MATT.

Matt these shorts were absolutely

Ideas

Posted by kevink on 31st of Aug 2026 at 01:35 pm

Matt these shorts were absolutely fantastic. I partook in all of them, except YOU*.  All worked great.  Paid for the subscription, so to speak.  Thanks for these.

[I mean ... I didn't , not "you".  You may or may not have shorted YOU and I may still short you later .. but it only affects me not YOU. so don't worry.]. 

ok that's enough abbott and costello.

QQ for Matt or any member who knows

Posted by kevink on 27th of Aug 2026 at 03:04 pm

What is the significance of the "W" appended to each symbol from the sector table. Each symbol has it .. so mentally, should be able to ignore, but my mind will not rest until I know

Market Sectors Index Symbol ETF Symbol % G / L Day % G / L Week Close
Transports TRAN- W IYT- W 0.59% 0.06% 21,583.06
Banks BKX- W
0.06% 0.94% 187.70
Financials
XLF- W -0.09% 1.36% 58.26
Brokers XBD- W
-0.49% 0.47% 1,243.73
XLE (Energy Select)
XLE- W 0.60% -1.90% 62.43
Oil Service Holders
OIH- W -0.20% -2.52% 404.88
Technology
XLK- W 0.61% -0.26% 182.84

I don't know why but

Posted by kevink on 25th of Aug 2026 at 04:09 pm

I don't know why but at like 3.51 ET i just sold everything except metals and a little sugar and corn. I am still not sure why I did that but I did.  Cash is a position.  Also holding some sector shorts.

Yes i heard of this

CORN nice

Posted by kevink on 21st of Aug 2026 at 03:11 pm

Yes i heard of this -- it's a good strategy - no filing requirements...

Friday Night Laughs

Posted by kevink on 21st of Aug 2026 at 03:10 pm

I posted this on a reply thread below and -- just in case you missed it -- I think it's worth it for a laugh to close out the week.  We all need a laugh after a long, nervous week full of hopes and regrets, and on occasion, desperation.  Sigh.  See the link to the video below.  Posted in the CORN K-1 discussion:

        [I should add this disclaimer .... the below was generated by AI and .. uhh .. you know .. it can run full speed directly into a brick wall...]
        robot-hits-wall

To avoid a Schedule K-1...

CORN nice

Posted by kevink on 21st of Aug 2026 at 12:50 pm

[I should add this disclaimer .... the below was generated by AI and .. uhh .. you know .. it can run full speed directly into a brick wall...]
robot-hits-wall

----------------

To avoid a Schedule K-1, there is no direct "pure-play single-corn" ETF that issues a Form 1099, because CORN is uniquely the only dedicated corn fund. However, you can gain broad agricultural futures or sector exposure without a K-1 using specific multi-crop futures ETFs or agriculture equity funds. [ 1, 2, 3]

Direct Futures-Based Alternatives (Form 1099)

  • Teucrium Agricultural Strategy No K-1 ETF(TILL):An actively managed fund that holds futures in corn, wheat, soybeans, and sugar via a Cayman Islands subsidiary, issuing a standard Form 1099 instead of a K-1.[ 1, 2]
  • Invesco Agriculture Commodity Strategy No K-1 ETF(PDBA):Uses a '40 Act subsidiary structure to offer broad agricultural futures exposure (including elements of grains and softs) without issuing a K-1.[ 1]

Agribusiness Equity Alternatives (Form 1099)

  • VanEck Agribusiness ETF(MOO):Invests in global stocks of companies that manage seeds, fertilizers, and agricultural equipment rather than trading physical commodity futures.[ 1, 2, 3]
  • iShares MSCI Agriculture Producers ETF(VEGI):Tracks equity performance of companies involved in agricultural production like farming, livestock, and milling.[ 1]

Does CORN issue a K-1?

CORN nice

Posted by kevink on 21st of Aug 2026 at 12:45 pm

Does CORN issue a K-1?  Googling that and alternatives... when do you make the list to get a K-1? eg do I have to have it more than a day, .. anyway i am googling this and will post but if anyone knows , please share

CONFIRMED THIS so far: (from Teucrium.com)

Tax Treatment

CORN issues a K-1 and typically qualifies for Section 1256 tax treatment: 60% long-term / 40% short-term capital gains, regardless of holding period


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