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Cramer...hmmmm

Cramer quotes Tom Demark too though. Tom is good.

I won't say Larry is lousy but just so-so level. 

He has a free websinar today at 1PM for 2023 outlook.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QjP5n7qfk2g 

I found him to be one of the overrated analysts/traders though, to be honest. 

Interesting chart related to Matt's

Posted by kevindeng0727 on 4th of Jan 2023 at 11:12 pm

Interesting chart related to Matt's topic on interest rates:

http://www.longwavegroup.com/market/charts/_pdf/Kondratieff_Cycle_Chart.pdf 

I first came into Kondratieff Cycle when studying the Elliott Wave books. I believe these cycles are part of nature and far beyound human civilization. There are Ancient Chinese books dated to thounsands of years ago about the 4 year, 10 year and 60 year cycles. 

Posted by kevindeng0727 on 4th of Jan 2023 at 05:24 pm

David Ryan said start of Jan to about the 3rd week is the most tricky time of a year and he prefers to stay light. Now I understand why he says that lol.

how do individual investors buy 3-montn t-bill?

last friday there was a

TLT nice bounce

Posted by kevindeng0727 on 3rd of Jan 2023 at 11:33 am

last friday there was a demark 9 on daily TLT - but it is an imperfect one,  meaning daily 9 did not make a lower low agaist the low of day 6&7. According to Tom, price will most likelt come down again to make that lower low before a meaningful bounce.

Matt, what's your preferred count

SPX comments

Posted by kevindeng0727 on 3rd of Jan 2023 at 11:30 am

Matt, what's your preferred count for this abc? a small wave 4 before a lower low & bigger bounce, or a wave 2 and we start trending strongly down. Thanks 

$VIX looks to open +7% - not sure if I am seeing the correct number

My observation is the impact so far is uneven on different types of properties: some significant pressure on detached houses in the 2-4M range (probably the 6% mortgage rate is killing lots of demand). The other weak area is condos in Downtown, they just never fully came back after covid, and this year the government tightened foreign buyers policy even more. There were lots of international students buying condos now they are shut down from the market. Other areas still appear pretty strong, like townhouses and smaller houses below 2M. At least so far I do not see too much pressure yet.

On percentage basis I would argue CM (Imperial bank of Canada) is the most vulnerable to the housing market - which is closer to 52 week lows compared to TD and Royal (both have more international exposure).

Regarding the housing bubble, I am personally not in the camp of crash scenario. Maybe  a further 20% correction. Toronto and Vanvouver have become literally international money laudering centers so affordibility is not a countable measurement. I came from other countries so I think a lot of Americans, Canadians or Australians don't fully understand how popular their countries are, to forgeign professionals & wealthy immigrants. They all have their own issues, but man other countries are doing far worse (just look at Japan, Europe etc).

I would love to see a a 30% further down in Canadian banks. At that point thet should be yielding very well. Because of the chartered banks system, there are no outside competition to these big 6 banks. They should come back to all time highs shortly after the resession ends.

John Roque (used to be

Posted by kevindeng0727 on 2nd of Jan 2023 at 12:42 am

John Roque (used to be a market technician for Soros fund management) talked about the H&S pattern on KRE recently. He has a target of $20 on Bank of America.

Canadian Banks also have lots of shorting patterns developing. If Banks do break hard that's a bad sign for the general market. I personally think the next leg down could have more damage on the economic sensitive value sectors versus growth.

Thanks Matt. QQQ looks like a bear flag on your monthly chart as well.

Last year when Matt first

Posted by kevindeng0727 on 1st of Jan 2023 at 09:54 pm

Last year when Matt first mentioned the possibility of retracing the entire post covid bubble I thought it was nonsense. But now look at the air pocket below if 2020 Sep low is not hold - wow

Try some ginger tea Matt. It's very good for stomach.

We got the perfect 9 on QQQ/COMPQ daily made a slight lower low

$ES still looks like some

Posted by kevindeng0727 on 28th of Dec 2022 at 09:02 am

$ES still looks like some triangle forming? If still wave 4 we will get demark 9 on daily today - perfect one if day 9's low is lower than day 6 and 7.

QQQ and COMPQ on day

Posted by kevindeng0727 on 27th of Dec 2022 at 02:42 pm

QQQ and COMPQ on day 8 of demark 9. Tomorrow if we make an intra day new low lower than the low of Dec 22,  a perfect 9 set up will occur.

KRE massive H&S. Not fun

Posted by kevindeng0727 on 16th of Dec 2022 at 01:56 pm

KRE massive H&S. Not fun for the market direction.

NAAIM at 71, highest since

Posted by kevindeng0727 on 15th of Dec 2022 at 04:57 pm

NAAIM at 71, highest since August

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