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UUP & XLE with an

Posted by jtsurfah on 3rd of May 2022 at 11:25 am

UUP & XLE with an inflationary backdrop - we know that dollar strength doesn't tell the story of inflation because it's measured against a basket of other currencies...which largely follow the same policies and have the same issues as a result. But, and this is a question I'm trying to work out for myself...maybe with the help of some of you, if/when the dollar gives up some of its recent parabolic move, inflation pain for Americans should increase somewhat proportionally (all other things remaining equal)....right? I mean, it's been basically amazing to me that energy and commodities (not today, but overall) have been so strong in the face of dollar strength. That tells me that inflation is really MUCH worse that it feels and may really bite if the dollar backs down from here. My family (except me) runs a business that does a lot of work in Europe (specially Italy) and they are hurting over there much worse because they are buying the same commodities but with a much weaker currency.  Am I off base?  Is it possible that a dollar retracement of recent move will be fuel on the fire of XLE and PDBC since they are largely priced in USD? 

I think her point is to provide a sector / factor ETF for money managers looking for a simple way to add exposure. No money manager in their right mind would hold ARKK as a large percentage of a portfolio, but it's been useful for gaining exposure in "risk on" environments. I've never her heard her describe it as a "diversified" solution. It's in my toolbox as a future shortcut when I sense I turn in those type of names. 

That's one approach, but daily is too short term for me. I'm selling 16 ish delta SPX and NDX puts when the market is down and selling SPX/NDX calls when it's up. Typically going out 45 DTE and rolling around 21 DTE.  If you're targeting 10% - 15% per year, you don't have to risk much to make it happen. It's always tempting to go bigger because 16 dela trades works nearly 90% of the time,...but the 10% of the time it doesn't work can and basically always does happen eventually so I keep my size appropriate. 

Thanks!

SPX Triangle Option

Posted by jtsurfah on 11th of Apr 2022 at 02:49 pm

Thanks!

Do annotations show up consistently

SPX Triangle Option

Posted by jtsurfah on 11th of Apr 2022 at 02:07 pm

Do annotations show up consistently with "chart links" for subscribers of Stockcharts.com?  In the links above, I only show the support areas. I much prefer TradingView.com, but I guess I would add stockcharts.comif it meant I could bookmark BPT charts more effectively. 

I don't know of anything that does this out of the box. However, if you are comfortable with API's, then you're only limited to your imagination with a lot of platforms. Interactive borkers has a few API templates in Python and other languages. Let me know if you find anything that is more plug and play - I'm also interested in the type of automation you are suggesting. 

AMD breaking above resistance. Looks

Posted by jtsurfah on 24th of Mar 2022 at 11:42 am

AMD breaking above resistance. Looks like next stop / resistance around $124.61?

Open System trades - any

Posted by jtsurfah on 21st of Mar 2022 at 01:36 pm

Open System trades - any idea on what it would take to get the open system trade (short SPX) to close? 

Depends on who is leading who / which  market at this particular time, right? Maybe the 4% was them pricing in the moves on ADR's in the US markets today?

TASK - the spread I put on to follow this trader in is up 63% so far. I think I got better pricing but he's still killing it. I've been watching the volume and haven't seen him reverse/close the trade yet.

PDBC vs PDCB. I couldn't find the one you suggested at first but figured it out. Great suggestion - I just got K-1's this week...very annoying.. I love the 10% yield, but bummed it's only payed out once per year! 

Maybe, but sometimes you need

VXX 15

Posted by jtsurfah on 7th of Mar 2022 at 04:02 pm

Maybe, but sometimes you need to redraw your lines. This looks like it maybe one of those cases...

REGN - coiling on multiple

Posted by jtsurfah on 7th of Mar 2022 at 02:23 pm

REGN - coiling on multiple time frames..energy building as Matt & Steve like to say  .  My bet is that it will break higher since XBI is positive today and IBB is outperforming the indexes...but it's still stuck for now.  FWIW, I came across it because it is a recent pick from another subscription service I use.  I just started a position. Stop at $589, just under the 200 ema. Just under 4% risk from current levels.

JJN - Nickel ETN up

Posted by jtsurfah on 7th of Mar 2022 at 02:07 pm

JJN - Nickel ETN up 64% today! Not enough volume to really interest me but crazy move. 

It was easy to spot this trade because there isn't a lot of volume in these options. I typically try not to get involved unless there is more volume, but if this guy is willing to put on a single trade with $2.475 Million in notional value (as of the close), then I figure it's probably worth it to follow him in with a spread or two. 

TASK - I primarily trade

Posted by jtsurfah on 4th of Mar 2022 at 12:12 am

TASK - I primarily trade options so I typically peruse the ideas here and look for ones that have tradeable options. Came across this while researching TASK tonight. The trader appeared to put on a vertical spread today which risked about 293K to make 460K between now and April expiration (it was probably more like 2 to 1 when he/she put it on). Big bet in premium terms so probably an institutional trader. Anyway, I thought it was interesting. I'll be following in...with much smaller size   

The volatility and volume on RSX options right now is unreal (both puts and calls). The only thing I've ever seen even close to this was during the heyday of the GME/AMC craze...but I don't think it was this extreme. 

RSX - I hope I'm

Posted by jtsurfah on 3rd of Mar 2022 at 04:01 pm

RSX - I hope I'm not violating any sanctions but I couldn't resist! Just sold 3 strike puts expiring in 15 days for $80 each. So my break even is $2.20 per share.
I guess the index can go to zero? That would be a first in my memory, but I suppose it's plausible. 

Lol - I'll work on

Sugar is sweet

Posted by jtsurfah on 3rd of Mar 2022 at 03:32 pm

Lol - I'll work on that!

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