If you look at this monthly xlf count and are used to looking at
wave 4's on Advanced Get and the Oscillator below - all of it jives
to be a probable wave 4 with a 5th wave down still coming.
Now, I won't get into whether it's the right count, but at
this point in time (to me) it is until it's not. The 2 blue shaded
area to the bottom right is called a Make or Break line. That
would be a probable target for the wave 5. Pretty ugly right?
Of course, wave 5's can end different ways and can be
truncated.
One more interesting point is (now that we can see more clearly)
look how the financials at least tie into the huge wave 3 of '08.
They appear right now,at least, to only be corrective of the
3.
I'm not so sure I agree. !4 trillion dollars is a whole
lot of cash given there are only 320 million people in the US and
with real unfunded liabilities of 60 trillion with ss, medicare,
and medicaid it's even more ridiculous. I think a wake up
call is needed and I'll bet there was a huge amount of pressure on
S&P not to make the call from the government. Just my
opinion and that's all it is -an opinion.
There are two things that I do that undermine my trading, right
now. I am very good at seeing what is coming and often have
call right way ahead of the curve - but because I often see it too
early- I'm often TOO EARLY in implementing it. Or even worse
I get the move and timing right and then find myself trying to play
every squiggle within the bigger move, which invariably tosses me
out of the move entirely and leaves me behind scratching my head.
It's not easy to stay in a bigger move especially when the
market in volatile, major news is constantly flowing, and support
and resistance are always near by.
In the final analysis, I believe everything depends on
time frame in trading. Very short term traders have to be
ready for moves that happen in a few minute time frames. But
since I am trading time frames where the trade stretches days to
hopefully weeks then I must find a way to chill and ignore the
gyrations within the bigger move. Waiting for my predetermined
signals seems to be the only way to do that.
As an aside, I realize that I am not good at swimming
upstream(counter-trend). That's a very tough game. It's
much easier for me to flow with the trend. That will be a
rule I will not break.
Hi, my name is John. I'm a right-aholic. Being right about
what is coming is not the problem.
Being too early and not following my trading rules
is. I'm trying very hard to be profitable by being
more patient. I now realize that being right is an asset but
it is keeping me from being more profitable.
I will strive to control my emotions and follow my trading
plan and I will wait for pre-determined signals to enter and leave
my positions.
Rule number one: All traders must have their
own written plan for tradingthat includes their
trading strategies, set ups, exits, risk etc. The plan has to
suit your lifestyle, psychology, time frame, and is hopefully
profitable.
It is difficult to trade somebody else's plan. At best we
can share things about the overall market, share some trade
ideas. Catch something that you didn't catch on your own and get a
different perspective on the market than just your own. That
information is valuable. But, what you do with it depends on
your trading plan. So, if you don't have your own trading
plan, that should be step number one.
It will help you immensely as you move forward. Please
don't take this as criticism. It is not meant to be. I
didn't get it either until I had my own trading plan and rules in
place. The net is full of information about developing your
trading plan. It will take a lot of time but as you develop
your own set of rules your profits should increase
dramatically.
Maybe not in this particular case.... but there are folks
trading all different time frames and strategies here. What
might not look good for me swinging for a few days might look good
to somebody else day trading or scalping, for instance. Also,
you never know what kind of strategy somebody is using and some
guys are probably just betting on a bounce. We're certainly
due. I do remember a recent bear market where that strategy
didn't work so well, though. Anyway, if you stick around you
might learn a few things and I'll bet you like it here.
Not worth a darn thing but, I think we should get Matt's
corrective bounce here. But...since I'm more cautious about
these things - I'll probably just wait and short the bounce on the
other side in a few days.
As for the bill. It looks like a crap deal to me and I
think a lot of traders will see it that way no matter if it is
passed this evening or not.
I doubt that satisfies anybody especially the rating agencies.
156 billion saved in interest because of the overall decrease
in spending. Looks like the bears win this round.
I just recently opened an account at IB. I'm trying to get
used to their Trader Workstation. They don't have a clear (to
me) short sale order. Since naked short sales are a no-no,
do you have to physically set up a borrow order for the
shares before you short sell on their system? Any help would
be appreciated. Thanks in advance..
I don't know the protocol but I think they are running out of
time to have something firm in place by Monday (yes, the debt
ceiling). If they can't I want to hold a little short
positions that I have over the weekend. If they can, then I
will go flat today sometime. What's the right answer?
Thanks.
I have no idea whether this plays out, but the GET count seems
to support the possibility of a zig-zag wave 4 move that measures
out here (red lines). Maybe watch it a bit just in case.
The community is delayed by three days for non registered users.
Long Term Count -Extreme possibility??? Just for Fun :(
XLF sticking out like a sore thumb
Posted by johnc on 9th of Aug 2011 at 06:13 am
If you look at this monthly xlf count and are used to looking at wave 4's on Advanced Get and the Oscillator below - all of it jives to be a probable wave 4 with a 5th wave down still coming. Now, I won't get into whether it's the right count, but at this point in time (to me) it is until it's not. The 2 blue shaded area to the bottom right is called a Make or Break line. That would be a probable target for the wave 5. Pretty ugly right? Of course, wave 5's can end different ways and can be truncated.
One more interesting point is (now that we can see more clearly) look how the financials at least tie into the huge wave 3 of '08. They appear right now,at least, to only be corrective of the 3.
Well, there is some support here but
Posted by johnc on 8th of Aug 2011 at 01:46 pm
I'm thinking 1030-1060 range is more likely. But who knows maybe we can quit falling long enough to go sideways here.
I'm not so sure I
We all knew it was coming eventually
Posted by johnc on 6th of Aug 2011 at 07:54 am
I'm not so sure I agree. !4 trillion dollars is a whole lot of cash given there are only 320 million people in the US and with real unfunded liabilities of 60 trillion with ss, medicare, and medicaid it's even more ridiculous. I think a wake up call is needed and I'll bet there was a huge amount of pressure on S&P not to make the call from the government. Just my opinion and that's all it is -an opinion.
Confessions of a Right-aholic. Any similarities?
Posted by johnc on 6th of Aug 2011 at 07:38 am
There are two things that I do that undermine my trading, right now. I am very good at seeing what is coming and often have call right way ahead of the curve - but because I often see it too early- I'm often TOO EARLY in implementing it. Or even worse I get the move and timing right and then find myself trying to play every squiggle within the bigger move, which invariably tosses me out of the move entirely and leaves me behind scratching my head. It's not easy to stay in a bigger move especially when the market in volatile, major news is constantly flowing, and support and resistance are always near by.
In the final analysis, I believe everything depends on time frame in trading. Very short term traders have to be ready for moves that happen in a few minute time frames. But since I am trading time frames where the trade stretches days to hopefully weeks then I must find a way to chill and ignore the gyrations within the bigger move. Waiting for my predetermined signals seems to be the only way to do that.
As an aside, I realize that I am not good at swimming upstream(counter-trend). That's a very tough game. It's much easier for me to flow with the trend. That will be a rule I will not break.
Hi, my name is John. I'm a right-aholic. Being right about what is coming is not the problem. Being too early and not following my trading rules is. I'm trying very hard to be profitable by being more patient. I now realize that being right is an asset but it is keeping me from being more profitable. I will strive to control my emotions and follow my trading plan and I will wait for pre-determined signals to enter and leave my positions.
I keep trying.
john
XLF Monthly
Posted by johnc on 5th of Aug 2011 at 12:18 pm
Doesn't it look like it is going to complete a wave 5 from the '09 lows? Looks like it has a better than average chance now !!!
Relative Strength
Posted by johnc on 4th of Aug 2011 at 01:02 pm
Now that's funny.
swell....Corzine rumored to be next sec of the treasury...another GS criminal? lets just put in Barney Frank while we're at it so we can get to the bottom faster....
Posted by johnc on 4th of Aug 2011 at 12:18 pm
So..... in order to get more stimulus
Here you go Marketguy!!
Posted by johnc on 3rd of Aug 2011 at 01:59 pm
we just have to make the market start falling apart? Oh boy, are we screwed...
RM
FYI - This week, no newsletter this Tuesday
Posted by johnc on 2nd of Aug 2011 at 07:32 pm
Rule number one: All traders must have their own written plan for tradingthat includes their trading strategies, set ups, exits, risk etc. The plan has to suit your lifestyle, psychology, time frame, and is hopefully profitable.
It is difficult to trade somebody else's plan. At best we can share things about the overall market, share some trade ideas. Catch something that you didn't catch on your own and get a different perspective on the market than just your own. That information is valuable. But, what you do with it depends on your trading plan. So, if you don't have your own trading plan, that should be step number one.
It will help you immensely as you move forward. Please don't take this as criticism. It is not meant to be. I didn't get it either until I had my own trading plan and rules in place. The net is full of information about developing your trading plan. It will take a lot of time but as you develop your own set of rules your profits should increase dramatically.
Some support and resistance levels
Posted by johnc on 2nd of Aug 2011 at 07:03 pm
Hi Dell,
what nobody short....odd
Posted by johnc on 2nd of Aug 2011 at 05:22 pm
Maybe not in this particular case.... but there are folks trading all different time frames and strategies here. What might not look good for me swinging for a few days might look good to somebody else day trading or scalping, for instance. Also, you never know what kind of strategy somebody is using and some guys are probably just betting on a bounce. We're certainly due. I do remember a recent bear market where that strategy didn't work so well, though. Anyway, if you stick around you might learn a few things and I'll bet you like it here.
Not worth a darn thing
What is everyone's take on the bill passing this evening (7pm), I am holding ES futures long?
Posted by johnc on 1st of Aug 2011 at 03:19 pm
Not worth a darn thing but, I think we should get Matt's corrective bounce here. But...since I'm more cautious about these things - I'll probably just wait and short the bounce on the other side in a few days.
As for the bill. It looks like a crap deal to me and I think a lot of traders will see it that way no matter if it is passed this evening or not.
One to watch? SZYM
Posted by johnc on 1st of Aug 2011 at 01:46 pm
Biofuels area. Particularly strong today over TL. Recent IPO. Might put it on your pay attention to list.
2.1 Trillion in Cuts
Posted by johnc on 1st of Aug 2011 at 01:11 pm
I doubt that satisfies anybody especially the rating agencies. 156 billion saved in interest because of the overall decrease in spending. Looks like the bears win this round.
Question for Interactive Brokers Users-Help
Posted by johnc on 31st of Jul 2011 at 09:16 am
I just recently opened an account at IB. I'm trying to get used to their Trader Workstation. They don't have a clear (to me) short sale order. Since naked short sales are a no-no, do you have to physically set up a borrow order for the shares before you short sell on their system? Any help would be appreciated. Thanks in advance..
Can they get a deal done before Monday morning?
Posted by johnc on 29th of Jul 2011 at 07:47 am
I don't know the protocol but I think they are running out of time to have something firm in place by Monday (yes, the debt ceiling). If they can't I want to hold a little short positions that I have over the weekend. If they can, then I will go flat today sometime. What's the right answer? Thanks.
Possible Short - Break Out Play
Posted by johnc on 28th of Jul 2011 at 02:22 pm
Here you go. Possible target -support at 50 with confluence of 200 D MA
Yep, I think you're right
MCP - Another possible view
Posted by johnc on 28th of Jul 2011 at 12:48 pm
Looking back to the weekly this looks more like a breakout of the bigger weekly 4.
MCP - Another possible view
Posted by johnc on 28th of Jul 2011 at 11:41 am
I have no idea whether this plays out, but the GET count seems to support the possibility of a zig-zag wave 4 move that measures out here (red lines). Maybe watch it a bit just in case.
Is something wrong w this BPENER?
Posted by johnc on 28th of Jul 2011 at 08:14 am
BPENER