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Wink took me a minute too.

click on the words "stock market crash warning signal"

TAN - gap was faded,

Posted by frtaylor on 30th of Mar 2015 at 10:22 am

TAN - gap was faded, now filled. 

So, it gives false positives but not false negatives. Most would say that's better than false negatives. Saying, "it only ever produced five false signals" makes it sound incredible, but there were only 15 signals total. So 1 in 3 is a false positive. Still pretty good, especially considering that 2013-14 was anomalous in terms of market strength. 

hit my stop.

Trading SSO this morning out

Posted by frtaylor on 27th of Mar 2015 at 11:00 am

Trading SSO this morning out of the flag. Target is around 130, but taking 1/2 @ 129.

S&P 500, 1 hour chart:

Posted by frtaylor on 26th of Mar 2015 at 04:11 pm

S&P 500, 1 hour chart: tested and rejected the 9ema. Final candle of the day confirms the rejection candle before it, closing below it, and showing an inverted hammer that closed below its open.

From a charts perspective, today's bounce is counted by one EW guy - Jason Haver - as a wave 4.

CBI: another look, this time 30 min chart.

CBI intraday looking strong - high vol, pennant forming. 15 min chart.

CBI - successful back test

Posted by frtaylor on 26th of Mar 2015 at 11:20 am

CBI - successful back test and a move higher from trend line (see chart from yesterday).

CBI - cup/handle type of

Posted by frtaylor on 25th of Mar 2015 at 01:51 pm

CBI - cup/handle type of look. Well, the china maker was drunk when he made this one! Anyway, broke above trend line and currently testing. I may add to my position if it closes above.

PXD looks like it's resuming

OIH, XLE

Posted by frtaylor on 25th of Mar 2015 at 01:43 pm

PXD looks like it's resuming up move after two down days. I am in w/ a stop below yesterdays lows.

Remember the RKUS chart from

Posted by frtaylor on 25th of Mar 2015 at 01:38 pm

Remember the RKUS chart from last week? May be giving an entry here. 30 minute chart w/ bull wedge.

Sorry for the delayed response; see attached. As I think about it, I guess I'm wondering about the longest red candles in the recent volatility and whether it helps in any way as a guide, similar to symmetry.

Steve/Matt, do you ever look

Posted by frtaylor on 25th of Mar 2015 at 12:30 pm

Steve/Matt, do you ever look at similar candles? I.e., in the last 4 months, whenever a down trend really got going, the first acceleration down red candle body is about 30 pts in each case. We're down 20 so far.

Steve, if inventories were greater

Posted by frtaylor on 25th of Mar 2015 at 11:47 am

Steve, if inventories were greater than expected, why is oil up? It's so hard to understand any market, but oil especially!

Passed the 61.8 fib at

HRTG Update

Posted by frtaylor on 25th of Mar 2015 at 11:07 am

Passed the 61.8 fib at 22.16. Retest of the highs would be next, I should think.

Matt, you're always talking about

Posted by frtaylor on 25th of Mar 2015 at 10:28 am

Matt, you're always talking about watching backtests of old trend lines.  Well, we've got a backtest underway of the SPX uptrend line on intraday charts.

Could it be the ol'

SPX Intraday Views

Posted by frtaylor on 25th of Mar 2015 at 10:04 am

Could it be the ol' rope-a-dope?

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