And now, back to Christmas!

Thanks for the link.

Thanks, I did listen to the weekend newsletter. And I definitely have your confirmation approach for ma crossovers etched in my mind. I was just curious if the statistical fact of a substantial move back in the direction of the trend carried any weight for you. I got the impression from your market analysis that no such move would occur - i.e. we may get a marginally new higher high but nothing like a 400-500 point move to the upside from here, which on a percentage basis is similar to past death/golden cross whipsaws. Just trying to think about all the possibilities. It's so easy to become bearish, but we're in the bullish season and wouldn't that just burn all the bears out there if SPX went to 2,500 by June.

Question for Matt, Steve or other technically oriented folks: In the last twenty years when we have gotten a death cross that was followed in short order by a golden cross, we've always seen a resumption of the up trend, and a fairly strong move at that. (I got this information from Rich Severson, OptionsMD.com, not my own discovery.) The 200 and 50 dma's are back together again right now. If the golden cross holds over the next week or two, how would this fact alter your view of the market going forward? 

You can chart the first hourly candle as either 9:30 - 10, or 9:30 - 10:30. With the latter, we don't confirm until 12:30, and so far looks like it's not going to confirm.

Good eye. Here's Bulkowski's discussion. 

http://thepatternsite.com/ThreeInsideDown.html

BABA looks interesting right here. Big cup and handle pattern on the daily chart; looks ready to move up.

Fear of a rate hike in December, given the FOMC comments about next meeting being on the table for a hike.

Well said.

Yes, divergence would be better, esp counter trend. Hadn't thought about the counter trend factor. As a paper trade, I was just following Matt's setup as given in the tutorial. At some point I'd like to look back through the setups to see if filtering for divergence would improve the overall profitability (Matt, have you done that?). a_i, as far as pre-FOMC, that's true, it's not a time for big moves, especially down; however, the chart set up once again about two hours ago and the trade was a winner (wasn't here to take it of course). We're only talking about 2 pts here. There was a tiny divergence on that one.

I really appreciate both of you commenting - you've been trading for so long, and always have good ideas and points. There is so much to think about in any trade setup.

I took a paper trade on the 15 min, but got stopped out. Perfectly good setup, though.

IWM setting up nicely (daily chart). Bollinger bands beginning to tighten as well.

Just watching from the sidelines.

Thanks Steve. Last time it was this overbought was the 2014 October rally top. Don't know if means anything, though.

Matt, is the Mclellan Oscillator overbought? I don't have a way to bring it up and someone (different blog) mentioned it's really overbought, so much so that it implies a big move down. (If only it were that easy!)

Here's the bullish interpretation: symmetrical triangle.

Talk about a fractal!

Careful up in here. There's at least one EW count showing a top to an ABC right about here, +- . A top for the next few weeks, with lower lows to come. If the 2 pm high holds, it's a lower high on day, and we should see SPX begin to impulse down. Internals don't support a turn, however.

Impressive!

GPRO - red to green move. In w/ a stop below the LOD (paper trade).