Posted by frtaylor on 18th of May 2016 at 09:33 am
Here's an interesting, simple and very successful
rule-based/mechanical trade for SPY (but can be used for any stock)
that was posted on another site. Data is 25 back-tested trades on
SPY. No evidence it has been run in real time, so realize it's
hypothetical. Also, 25 trades is not that many, stat-wise.
1. a long-only trade
2. at the close, SPY (or ABC stock) down >= 1 std. deviation,
as measured by a 50-day moving average (not 20-day a la std
BB's).
3. buy at the close
4. sell at the first close that is higher than the entry,
otherwise close on the 5th day
The trade doesn't happen very often, only about 4x a year, so
it's not something you can use as a primary system (unless you
trade lots of stocks using it as well). The ave win is only 0.9%,
so you'd need to trade a large sum to make it worthwhile after
commissions.
Well, it did in fact break an intraday line connecting highs.
When it fell well back below that line I was out. Maybe just a dumb
trade, but it was a trigger and a stop.
Amazing how many times these short trades don't work out in the
current market environment. I had been watching this same time
frame, I took the break, it reversed and I stopped out. I swear it
does not pay to be a bear.
Posted by frtaylor on 25th of Apr 2016 at 08:50 am
This is a great question/point. (For an IRA, of course, it
doesn't matter.) I would think selling at, or just out of, the
money vertical call spreads during the bad six months would be a
good approach, but you'd need to research and develop a specific
set of rules. Or, sell SSO or UPRO (possibly on margin). So it
becomes more complicated if you want to negate the tax
disincentive.
The community is delayed by three days for non registered users.
Speaking of intraday wedges, SPX
Posted by frtaylor on 18th of May 2016 at 01:58 pm
Speaking of intraday wedges, SPX has a rising one:
If short ZOES, look @
ZOES
Posted by frtaylor on 18th of May 2016 at 01:01 pm
If short ZOES, look @ the 15 min chart: it just broke out of a descending wedge.
Here's an interesting, simple and
Posted by frtaylor on 18th of May 2016 at 09:33 am
Here's an interesting, simple and very successful rule-based/mechanical trade for SPY (but can be used for any stock) that was posted on another site. Data is 25 back-tested trades on SPY. No evidence it has been run in real time, so realize it's hypothetical. Also, 25 trades is not that many, stat-wise.
1. a long-only trade
2. at the close, SPY (or ABC stock) down >= 1 std. deviation, as measured by a 50-day moving average (not 20-day a la std BB's).
3. buy at the close
4. sell at the first close that is higher than the entry, otherwise close on the 5th day
The trade doesn't happen very often, only about 4x a year, so it's not something you can use as a primary system (unless you trade lots of stocks using it as well). The ave win is only 0.9%, so you'd need to trade a large sum to make it worthwhile after commissions.
http://www.paststat.com/backtest-report/trading-strategy/SPY/Tuesday&Losers-with- 1Xstd(50)-down-move&/first-positive-close-5-days/2012-05-17/2016-05-17
A BPT Textbook Trade
Posted by frtaylor on 17th of May 2016 at 02:40 pm
Lol! It's been hard watching
SPX 15 and 30 min
Posted by frtaylor on 17th of May 2016 at 02:12 pm
Lol! It's been hard watching the price action while it runs up & down this range.
IHS negated!
SPX 15 and 30 min
Posted by frtaylor on 17th of May 2016 at 02:09 pm
IHS negated!
Sure did!
SPX 3 min
Posted by frtaylor on 12th of May 2016 at 08:00 pm
Sure did!
Sitting on the 9 and
SPX 10 min with Fibs
Posted by frtaylor on 11th of May 2016 at 02:43 pm
Sitting on the 9 and 5 ema right now (daily chart).
HLT, 15 min chart.
Posted by frtaylor on 11th of May 2016 at 10:33 am
HLT, 15 min chart.
So far the pullback equals
SPX 10 min
Posted by frtaylor on 11th of May 2016 at 10:04 am
So far the pullback equals the biggest pullback since the reversal, ~ 10 pts. See if it can hold here.
OXY also looks like a
Posted by frtaylor on 11th of May 2016 at 09:41 am
OXY also looks like a red to green may have started. We will see. I'm watching 5 min candles.
Market is a bit heavy, so these could make a lower low this morning before turning up.
HLT: red to green move
Posted by frtaylor on 11th of May 2016 at 09:37 am
HLT: red to green move developing. Bounced off the 200ma.
Cooked - nice pun. Sorry,
AAPL Short Term
Posted by frtaylor on 4th of May 2016 at 10:44 am
Cooked - nice pun. Sorry, Tim!
I just realized Steve had
Posted by frtaylor on 4th of May 2016 at 09:04 am
I just realized Steve had a TV career before BPT, as Max Headroom! "He's nothing but a robot, covered in makeup...."
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nt56RMbpq_0
Har, har! It gets even
ERY 30m
Posted by frtaylor on 2nd of May 2016 at 03:00 pm
Har, har! It gets even more confusing when you short an inverse etf. Or how about shorting XIV - what the hell does that even mean, lol!
Well, it did in fact
ERY 30m
Posted by frtaylor on 2nd of May 2016 at 02:42 pm
Well, it did in fact break an intraday line connecting highs. When it fell well back below that line I was out. Maybe just a dumb trade, but it was a trigger and a stop.
Amazing how many times these
ERY 30m
Posted by frtaylor on 2nd of May 2016 at 01:50 pm
Amazing how many times these short trades don't work out in the current market environment. I had been watching this same time frame, I took the break, it reversed and I stopped out. I swear it does not pay to be a bear.
Of course, and same w/
Updated Sell in May Stats for fun
Posted by frtaylor on 25th of Apr 2016 at 09:37 am
Of course, and same w/ IRA. Just agreeing w/ zitron that for a regular account it's a factor.
This is a great question/point.
Updated Sell in May Stats for fun
Posted by frtaylor on 25th of Apr 2016 at 08:50 am
This is a great question/point. (For an IRA, of course, it doesn't matter.) I would think selling at, or just out of, the money vertical call spreads during the bad six months would be a good approach, but you'd need to research and develop a specific set of rules. Or, sell SSO or UPRO (possibly on margin). So it becomes more complicated if you want to negate the tax disincentive.
Not playing out so far.
XLE - intraday flag
Posted by frtaylor on 22nd of Apr 2016 at 11:20 am
Not playing out so far. Getting a little long for a flag.