Posted by frtaylor on 22nd of Jul 2016 at 02:09 pm
I wonder why he thinks "the current setup is extremely weak,"
and why he seems to be expecting a big pullback. I'm more in Matt's
camp - we've broken out to all-time highs and the MA's are
bullishly aligned, which is a strong setup. Any 2-3% pullback is
very likely going to be bought, which would confirm market
strength. Neither has happened yet, but the former seems less
likely. Would love to hear more on why he's so skeptical of this
breakout (probably volume or breadth etc.).
Posted by frtaylor on 19th of Jul 2016 at 02:29 pm
You could also sell some GDX vertical call spreads. That way
price just has to stay below your lower strike + your credit. And,
as Mick would say, "Time is on my side."
Posted by frtaylor on 18th of Jul 2016 at 10:17 am
On the sleep apnea, get one of those wedge pillows so you can't
turn on your back while sleeping. Apnea is bad for you, for your
energy during the day and for overall health (including a healthy
immune system).
Posted by frtaylor on 14th of Jul 2016 at 03:45 pm
With you on the SVXY thing. I need to develop a plan for trading
it long term, however. There are some good ideas on the web, but
haven't verified them for myself.
Do you know, statistically, how often an index (or stock) will
hit a resistance trendline like that (flat-ish resistance; not a
downtrend channel line) four times and NOT break through? My
limited knowledge says when it hits that many times it's very
likely to break through.
Posted by frtaylor on 30th of Jun 2016 at 02:57 pm
Cool stat - where did you find it? Combined with this morning's
short SPY system signal (and maybe a candle or wedge pattern) it
could mean a low risk short trade (i.e., put stop closer than the
normal SPY stop, etc. - Matt pointed out the historical drawdown
for this signal is small). I can really only buy puts, or spreads,
as my IRA is tiny, but something to watch for.
Posted by frtaylor on 29th of Jun 2016 at 12:29 pm
thinking of selling a SPY vertical spread (which I can do in my
IRA), but not til I see some MACD and/or RSI 5 divergence on a
30min or hr chart. Currently nothing even on a 15 min.
Posted by frtaylor on 26th of Jun 2016 at 04:02 pm
I can hear Steve saying something like "we stand a better chance
of a positive EOD print on Monday if we open with a gap down, hit a
lower low on an intraday chart with neg div, then reverse. If we
open within Friday's candle, chances are we'll end in the red, with
possibly lower low vs. Friday."
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Ah, no worries. If only
SPX 120 min view
Posted by frtaylor on 23rd of Jul 2016 at 02:47 am
Ah, no worries. If only I had too many accounts to vex me!
since I don't have TS,
SPX 120 min view
Posted by frtaylor on 22nd of Jul 2016 at 06:08 pm
since I don't have TS, is this a simple matter to set up as a chart in TOS?
I wonder why he thinks
Choppiness Index and VIX level
Posted by frtaylor on 22nd of Jul 2016 at 02:09 pm
I wonder why he thinks "the current setup is extremely weak," and why he seems to be expecting a big pullback. I'm more in Matt's camp - we've broken out to all-time highs and the MA's are bullishly aligned, which is a strong setup. Any 2-3% pullback is very likely going to be bought, which would confirm market strength. Neither has happened yet, but the former seems less likely. Would love to hear more on why he's so skeptical of this breakout (probably volume or breadth etc.).
MO breaking up out of
Posted by frtaylor on 21st of Jul 2016 at 09:51 am
MO breaking up out of a triangle on 3 min chart. Good long entry w/ very tight stop (today's low).
Good volume too.
LILAK follow up
Posted by frtaylor on 20th of Jul 2016 at 04:58 pm
Good volume too.
You could also sell some
DUST worth a shot here?
Posted by frtaylor on 19th of Jul 2016 at 02:29 pm
You could also sell some GDX vertical call spreads. That way price just has to stay below your lower strike + your credit. And, as Mick would say, "Time is on my side."
I've actually been holding a
VIX 60 min comments
Posted by frtaylor on 19th of Jul 2016 at 10:58 am
I've actually been holding a small position in SVXY in my IRA. Doing very well, and with the SPX breakout I may buy more on any pullback to support.
On the sleep apnea, get
Hey Matt: The positive about getting your tonsils out?
Posted by frtaylor on 18th of Jul 2016 at 10:17 am
On the sleep apnea, get one of those wedge pillows so you can't turn on your back while sleeping. Apnea is bad for you, for your energy during the day and for overall health (including a healthy immune system).
bluezango, it looks like a
VIX 60 min comments
Posted by frtaylor on 15th of Jul 2016 at 05:21 pm
bluezango, it looks like a solid trade idea. Do you have paper traded data to support? What, if any, is your stop? Also, I pm'd you on another topic.
With you on the SVXY
VIX 60 min comments
Posted by frtaylor on 14th of Jul 2016 at 03:45 pm
With you on the SVXY thing. I need to develop a plan for trading it long term, however. There are some good ideas on the web, but haven't verified them for myself.
Do you know, statistically, how
SPX 60 min - note trendline coming up
Posted by frtaylor on 7th of Jul 2016 at 11:18 am
Do you know, statistically, how often an index (or stock) will hit a resistance trendline like that (flat-ish resistance; not a downtrend channel line) four times and NOT break through? My limited knowledge says when it hits that many times it's very likely to break through.
Well, I'd think only as
sbux
Posted by frtaylor on 30th of Jun 2016 at 03:29 pm
Well, I'd think only as some kind of inverse, since higher coffee prices lead to increased overhead and lower profit margins.
Cool stat - where did
The past 30 years, 3 consecutive days of gains >1% ...
Posted by frtaylor on 30th of Jun 2016 at 02:57 pm
Cool stat - where did you find it? Combined with this morning's short SPY system signal (and maybe a candle or wedge pattern) it could mean a low risk short trade (i.e., put stop closer than the normal SPY stop, etc. - Matt pointed out the historical drawdown for this signal is small). I can really only buy puts, or spreads, as my IRA is tiny, but something to watch for.
Did you use a daily,
SPY Pro
Posted by frtaylor on 30th of Jun 2016 at 12:38 pm
Did you use a daily, 60 min, 30 min?
SPY Pro system trade information
Posted by frtaylor on 29th of Jun 2016 at 05:48 pm
just noticing, VIX is nearing
Dow short-term overbought levels
Posted by frtaylor on 29th of Jun 2016 at 12:39 pm
just noticing, VIX is nearing its 20 ma. An August 25 call is $115. Hmm.
True. Maybe watch for a
Dow short-term overbought levels
Posted by frtaylor on 29th of Jun 2016 at 12:32 pm
True. Maybe watch for a shooting star or doji to get taken out to the down side for 1/2 the SPY.
thinking of selling a SPY
Dow short-term overbought levels
Posted by frtaylor on 29th of Jun 2016 at 12:29 pm
thinking of selling a SPY vertical spread (which I can do in my IRA), but not til I see some MACD and/or RSI 5 divergence on a 30min or hr chart. Currently nothing even on a 15 min.
Yeah, Friday was one helluva
As I have posted previously on several occasions I follow ...
Posted by frtaylor on 26th of Jun 2016 at 04:08 pm
Yeah, Friday was one helluva candle. A reflexive bounce tomorrow or Tues would not surprise.
I can hear Steve saying
As I have posted previously on several occasions I follow ...
Posted by frtaylor on 26th of Jun 2016 at 04:02 pm
I can hear Steve saying something like "we stand a better chance of a positive EOD print on Monday if we open with a gap down, hit a lower low on an intraday chart with neg div, then reverse. If we open within Friday's candle, chances are we'll end in the red, with possibly lower low vs. Friday."