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Keep in mind, the likelyhood

Posted by chartboy on 12th of May 2021 at 03:17 pm

Keep in mind, the likelyhood of a margin selling induced downdraft in to the close by those holding the ARKK like names is elevated. 

Fib fan and channel support

Posted by chartboy on 12th of May 2021 at 02:54 pm

Fib fan and channel support in confluence with price here. 

Watch ARKK. So far, yesterday’s wonder reversal was nothing more than a successful test of broken support at the old march lows at 106.25, which converts that to new resistance. This morning’s gap down if not reversed quickly will further confirm that resistance. Alternatively, if the gap gets reversed it will bouey the market and leave tech hanging on with a boatload of new resistance sitting overhead. 

The statement that the market is broadening in strength has no basis in fact. The numbers do not lie, it is narrowing. What it is doing however is rotating into late cycle names. More relevant to ARKK, the relative strength of technology has made a major top that is very strongly statistical correlated to very long periods of relative underperfomance (decade +). In fact, it is virtually identical to the peak of relative performance that occurred in early 2000 and led to tech never surpassing those levels for 15 years and only after draw downs exceeding well of 50% in most tech ETFs like ARKK.

Remember, most investors thought it was “different this time” in 2000 as well. 

If you found yourself perplexed

Posted by chartboy on 11th of May 2021 at 08:13 pm

If you found yourself perplexed this morning while all the momo tech names gapped down so hard only to immediately reverse as if some downside target had been achieved then consider the fact that everyone of these momo ETFs...from ARKK to Chinese Internet to Green Energy... gapped directly to their fib fans lines and once that target was fulfilled that was it for the low. 

RP...watch silver for a tell. The technical position is much clearer there. It is sitting against the top of what would look like a typical one year trend channel to most people. However, in reality is a Fib Fan Line from the ATH back in 11. The fan lines have defined its moves and ranges since the low last year. A confirmed break above this line will trigger the start of the next leg up. 

ARKK’s holdings have  been in bear in a market since @Feb 16th as has most of the related tech names. That is an undeniable fact. There is no question it will end at some point, and bounce along the way, but that doesnt change the fact that buying into a bearish market on fundamentals is a very dangerous strategy that has led to the demise of legions of people who became complacent using that approach after long bull markets rolled over as everyone has. 

IWM gapped below then perfectly

Posted by chartboy on 11th of May 2021 at 10:14 am

IWM gapped below then perfectly backtested its primary uptrend line (green) confirming its significance. 

Spx bouncing off its channel

Posted by chartboy on 11th of May 2021 at 10:03 am

Spx bouncing off its channel line. 

That is exactly the kind of thinking that destroys people in a bear market. Theoretical fundamental values are not part of the equation in forced liquidations. A large reason reason for that is the fact that forced liquidations cause a negative wealth effect and further erosion in the theoretical fundamental values while also irreparably destroying the supply/demand equation in the security for a minimum of the short and intermediate term time horizons. 

I should note, Martin Pring’s

Check out this chart

Posted by chartboy on 10th of May 2021 at 08:35 pm

I should note, Martin Pring’s work suggests a significant reversal in the relative strength of tech verse oil and gas, similar to what occurred in 2000 and corresponding with tech failing to exceed its prior highs for over a decade. 

I spent much of the

Check out this chart

Posted by chartboy on 10th of May 2021 at 07:46 pm

I spent much of the day explaining to people that the action in things like ARKK, PBW, KWEB, etc, etc is exactly what occured in the internet names in spring 2000. Stealth bear markets in growth are not something to turn a blind eye to once rolling tops begin. With charts like AAPL having what is likely a year long distribution pattern in place this is not bullish action whatsoever. 

That information is quite misleading. It presumes you sold before May and had no exposure all month, which is not what the axiom states. Instead it is sell IN May. Most programs that attempt to profit from that strategy use a momentum based technical indicator to exit at some point after May 1st (possibly even after May) once a sell signal is triggered.  

https://school.stockcharts.com/doku.php?id=trading_strategies:six_month_cycle_macd

Anyone trading GDX should keep

Posted by chartboy on 4th of May 2021 at 01:12 pm

Anyone trading GDX should keep an eye on the declining purple channel. 

For the time being, yesterday’s

Posted by chartboy on 4th of May 2021 at 12:58 pm

For the time being, yesterday’s retracement in the dollar appears to be a successful retest of last week’s breakout above its falling trendline and its uptrend channel. 

GLD falling back into into

Posted by chartboy on 4th of May 2021 at 12:54 pm

GLD falling back into into its declining channel as well. 

SLV rejected hard off the

Posted by chartboy on 4th of May 2021 at 12:44 pm

SLV rejected hard off the top of its declining channel again. 

Today’s move in silver puts it right against the top of its channel. 

Update of this mornings chart

Posted by chartboy on 30th of Apr 2021 at 04:29 pm

Update of this mornings chart with todays move. 

As some here might remember,

Posted by chartboy on 30th of Apr 2021 at 06:51 am

As some here might remember, I was very bullish when GLD appeared to be breaking down in March and I stated that the move was nothing more than the completion of a move to downside fib targets and I pointed out that it was occuring in conjunction with a big fib turn window (time and price squaring out). That was in fact the ultimate low to date, but was tested through a double bottom. At the time of the second bottom I reiterated my bullishness based in large part on what I pointed out as an expected top in the USD as it had rallied to an upside projection, which was also the backside of a multiyear trend line.

Now, after a good rally in GLD, and straight line selloff in the dollar, that dynamic has completely unwound and strongly favors the USD rallying and a much tougher time ahead for GLD.  

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