Agreed.  My understanding is that the Supply Zone remains valid until tested and broken.  I think the reason for this is simply a self-fulfilling prophecy.  Technical Analysts are taught that these levels matter, so they react accordingly.  Algos are programmed to react to these levels.  So IMO it is less that actual individuals held for 6 years to get to break even, and more that traders and computers are making decisions based on that assumption, faulty though it may be.  Once selling begins, the resistance level is confirmed and others pile in, even if they aren't looking back that far.

Thanks, Matt!  Teamwork!

Matt, THANKS for posting the summary early.  It is very helpful!  Since you are riding solo these days, shorter daily summaries would totally make sense.  Thanks for all that you do.  I LOVE this service and have benefitted greatly over the past year, largely because of you and your awesome calls!  Kudos and much appreciation!

Ken

Part of the incentive for me to ... learn to trade the markets years later.

You check Stockcharts first ?  I just bought some Safehold Inc stock!   My bad!  LOL

Years ago, I bought Lowe's and sold Simplify Enhanced Income ETF!  It turned out to be a nice pairs trade, but I felt silly when I learned what the saying meant ... 

February is a short month.  We may have to wait until March!  LOL

BTW, I have some delightful tulips.  Anyone care to bid on them?  ...

<< For the gold/silver with monster gains, is it better to take half off the table with a hard stop on the balance, or put a 5% trailing stop on entire positions?  Or is there a better way to participate in the remaining rally without being all in or all out?  >>         

Richie, here are my 2 cents.

First of all, standard disclaimer:  a lot depends on your time frame and long-term view of gold/metals/etc.  If you expect them to be worth twice as much or more in 5 years, you can sell a smaller portion and try to buy back incrementally on dips, as long as you don't need the money for several years.  If you think they might only go up 10 or 20% over the next few years, then selling half or more now might make sense.  Why risk a 50% drop in hopes of a 15% gain?  IMO, it is important to weigh what you hope to gain by holding vs. what you are willing to lose.

For years, I was an all or nothing trader - buy full position at one point and sell it all for a gain or loss at a second point.  That doesn't work out too well in most cases.  Pros buy incrementally and sell incrementally.  For the rest of use, DCA (dollar cost averaging) is a good way to acquire a position over time without having to time the market.  I prefer using Technical Analysis to look for good entries with a fairly tight stop, and then sell incrementally on the way up.  In a perfect world, I add on pullbacks to key support levels.

Selling half IMO makes a lot more sense than selling everything at one point.  For long-term positions, I often think in thirds.  Sell 1/3 when a stock gets way above the 20ma, or sell that 1/3 with a tight stop (perhaps a daily bar-by-bar trailing stop).  The general idea is to sell 1/3 on a strong move up and keep 2/3 with a break-even stop or better, moving it up as the chart dictates.  If I really like a stock long-term and it moves a lot, I may sell 1/5 at a time and look to buy back cheaper.

None of this is investment advice.  Just some ideas to consider.

Congrats on what sounds like massive gains!   Lock in enough to be happy, and hold enough to be happy.

Maybe look to sell 1/3 of most positions into strength.  Maybe use a modest (not tight) stop on another 1/3 and a loose stop on the final 1/3.

Most of my precious metal holdings are long-term.  I sold too much into  the October peak and bought back too little on the drop.  I was planning to lean heavily into silver stocks on my rebuys, but wanted to make sure I had plenty of dry powder in case there was a prolonged drop, which was to be expected after a blow-off top.  I didn't expect SLV to bottom within 10 trading days, so I missed the bottom and failed to buy the breakout to new highs in December.  I have bought some pullbacks and consolidations since then, and have taken small profits on the way up.

CDE was up over 12% today, so I sold some.  AG was up 9%, so I sold some.  NGD was up over 12%, so I sold some.  When I see a big move, I usually look to take at least a little off the top, even if I plan to hold the position for years.  I can always buy back later if the chart gives me the opportunity.

Again, your personal situation should dictate how much to hold for the long-term and how much to sell based on short-term moves.  The moves have been crazy.  There were many times to take profits over the past year, but if you  sold and didn't buy back, you would have left a huge amount on the table.  As they say, "Don't let perfection be the enemy of the good."  Or, as I say, "Good enough is."  Once again, sell enough to be happy now (or use a tight stop) and keep enough to be happy later.  If you sell 1/3 now and everything doubles over the next five years, you will probably be happy later.

It all depends on your situation, personal psychology, etc.  But stocks can go nuts far beyond your expectations, so keep at least some skin in the game.

Just my 2 cents.

I hope this helps.

Once again, congrats!  Enjoy!

I just bought some MRVL and ALAB.  Strong today.

Apparently NO TARIFF DECISION today from Supreme Court.

Salesforce stock got CReaMed today.  Salesforce and Adobe were among the S&P 500’s biggest losers on Tuesday as investors considered the threat AI poses to their business models.

This is a chart of XPRO, not XOP.  XPRO does look extremely bullish.  XOP, not so much.

Gold seems bullish tonight.  $4578.

I would like to watch the recording over the weekend., if possible.

Matt, will this be recorded?

Thanks, Matt!  Much appreciated!

<<  big cap techs that have lagged should get bid up on new highs >>

ORCL as well?  I can hope, can't I?  lol

Good input, EdZ.  Thanks!

Eric,

Thanks for your detailed post!  Very helpful!

Would love to see a strong break through 187 ...

Ken