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:15 chart

How is the GDX/GLD ratio looking today ?

Posted by bk1976 on 1st of Feb 2022 at 03:47 pm

:15 chart

NFLX aftermarket at 406 at 4:41 which was last seen May of 2020 well over a year and a half ago.  No buy and hold for my account.

VIX is uncorrelated again at

Posted by bk1976 on 8th of Nov 2021 at 10:48 am

VIX is uncorrelated again at -.52 and VVIX is 110.85  will see how the day plays out.

VVIX now at 109.16

Posted by bk1976 on 14th of Apr 2021 at 02:57 pm

VVIX now at 109.16

VVIX closed at 109.90 it

Posted by bk1976 on 17th of Mar 2021 at 04:46 pm

VVIX closed at 109.90 it will be interesting to see when it move back above 110 the VOMMA  zone and how  the market will react.

Matt is the SPY short

Posted by bk1976 on 13th of Nov 2020 at 04:26 pm

Matt is the SPY short trade still one, as the post has dropped out?

Matt, I appreciate all you

Posted by bk1976 on 11th of Jun 2020 at 11:06 pm

Matt, I appreciate all you do with the SPY PRO SYS!!  These are very unusual times and no system can get it right all the time. Overall the SPY PRO has done a great job in reversion to mean trades.  I can understand why it is hard on you lately but you are not the market and we all understand the risk and if we don't we should not trade it. Please keep the SPY PRO.

I am so sorry to

Posted by bk1976 on 30th of Mar 2020 at 02:24 pm

I am so sorry to hear of your loss Steve. You and your family our in my thoughts and prayers. Take the time your family needs.

Thanks for the SPY stats

Posted by bk1976 on 3rd of Mar 2020 at 10:17 pm

Thanks for the SPY stats with draw downs and your comments in the newsletter. It all is very helpful.  You have given more info to back the great system you have even with the draw downs.  Thanks again.

Great newsletter,  at 9:04pm central

Posted by bk1976 on 1st of Mar 2020 at 10:04 pm

Great newsletter,  at 9:04pm central time future are up S&P +27

Sorry for the huge post.

Posted by bk1976 on 29th of Feb 2020 at 10:26 pm

Sorry for the huge post. The drop upload didn't work for me.

 

MONTHLY DATA of S&P500 corrections of greater than 10% in a 1 or 2 month time frame that started in an uptrend.








Year of Market Top Top Bottom Point loss Correction in % MONTHLY Lower BB at the TOP Market TOP compared to the lower BB at the TOP in % of correction Error of the Lower BB as a target for a bottom. Negative # means the BB was too low by this % or positive # being too high. The average error was -5%.
1987 337 216 121 -35 198 -41 -6
1990 369 294 75 -20 282 -23 -3
1998 1190 923 267 -22 686 -42 -20
2000 1553 1340 213 -13 1013 -34 -20
2000 1530 763 767 -50 1232 -19 31
2007 1576 666 910 -57 1221 -45 12
2010 1219 1010 209 -17 738 -39 -21
2011 1356 1070 286 -21 957 -29 -8
2012 1422 1266 156 -11 1088 -23 -12
2015 2134 1808 326 -15 1775 -16 -1
2018 2872 2553 319 -11 1986 -30 -19
2018 2940 2346 594 -20 2271 -22 -2
2020 3393 2855 538 -16 2553 -25








Bollinger Band 20:2=BB






2020 data based on 2/28 close






Here are some stats on

Posted by bk1976 on 29th of Feb 2020 at 03:46 pm

Here are some stats on the S&P500 on a monthly chart and the lower Bollinger Band as a target when a >10% correction happens in less than 2 months or in a few weeks like just happened since 1982.  As you can see there can be quite a wide variance in a target however percentage wise with the average error factored in it gets you in the ballpark.  Thankfully this has happened only 12 times in 38 years.  In FEB 2020 at one time the S&P500 monthly candle was  greater than 50 point above the upper Bollinger Band a clear sign that a consolidation at a minimum was at hand. Funny on how a 50 point (1.5%) gain was a great day for the market, just a little perspective.

Thank you for your work

Posted by bk1976 on 28th of Feb 2020 at 01:06 pm

Thank you for your work and staying calm in the middle of a storm. No  one likes the past week of carnage and you both have been honest about the condition of the market. I like the SYS PRO SYM even with the current draw down I am experiencing. Keep it as is. There is no HOLY GRAIL and if this is  the 5% that it maybe does not work so well so be it, however the trades are still open and no one knows the future.  That is why you trade the plan.

The chart settings and chart

NYMO and McClellan

Posted by bk1976 on 27th of Jan 2020 at 10:54 pm

The chart settings and chart legend show the standard setting of 20day moving average and standard deviation of 2

Nicely said.  BPT is a

email I received

Posted by bk1976 on 2nd of Jul 2019 at 02:09 pm

Nicely said.  BPT is a great website and teaches you to trade.  The SPY system  is what brought me here and all the education is a big plus.  Thank you Matt and Steve for all you do.  I do trade and listen and rarely post. If someone can't afford $50/mo for this information and the SPY system they don't have enough money to trade in the first place. Yes I work a full time job and it requires constant travel.  Keep up the good work.

Sorry the last part got

This scares me.

Posted by bk1976 on 25th of Mar 2018 at 03:30 pm

Sorry the last part got cut off. The 1989 and 1990 daily chart showed a trend line or support broken well ahead of the major selling.  Most all major selling has warnings on the daily chart for 3-8 days. The real questions is, will I or anyone else heed the warnings? Matt and Steve where not bullish Monday,  Tuesday or Wednesday but rather cautious, I think because that is what the chart and not emotions or predicting, showed.  I believe Matt and Steve are professional and good teachers of the market.

Yes a weekly chart does

This scares me.

Posted by bk1976 on 25th of Mar 2018 at 03:23 pm

Yes a weekly chart does however look at the daily chart and 4 ma configuration there were 5 to 8 days of outside the upward trend and outside of a wedge pattern for the 1987 chart.  1989

Hi Matt, I have been

SPY system stuff

Posted by bk1976 on 20th of Mar 2018 at 04:16 pm

Hi Matt, I have been with BPT since last summer.  Great service of education and trade ideas and SPY system and yes I did get imploded with XIV in about 5% of my money. That is my responsibility as every trade is. Both you and Steve are and were very profesional and of character over the XIV.  If I remember correctly a member traded XIV on his own modified SPY PRO system and shared that with you, then you are the one who looked at it and then added it and took responsibility although it was not your idea to start with.  That is character and responsibility and not a politician.  The SPY PRO is your system that you offer. Thanks for your work and help (Steve too). Stay focused on what you offer and it seems that a few are trying to let their tails wag Break point. Stay the course.

John,  Place a conditional order, order triggers order as it is called at Fidelity.  Place a buy order with a condition "stop price" at the trigger price (meaning it won't buy unless the price moves up to that price). On the same order you place another order that only is triggered or comes into play if the first order is filled, on this order you place a sell order with a stop price. It could be a trailing stop as well so if it goes up and reverses during the day you could lock in some gains.

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