yes gonna be additional entries - pucker trades/systems I call
them, that's the problem with mean reversion systems, they have
high winning percentages, but when they scale into a strong
pullback/correction and take heat, it's emotionally difficult at
times to follow them.
as I've always said - mean reversion systems are NOT feel
good systems, they buy when it feels horrible, and when they are
earlier it feels more horrible LOL, it is what it is.
the KISS is easier honestly because you have your stop and risk
defined
systems additional entries, three ES sub systems taking 2nd or
3rd entries, only one SPY system taking an additional entry
MES futures mean reversion systems CCI divergence 2nd entry, Trend/Pullback 3rd
entry, QE BTS 3rd entry
SPY mean reversion systems Trend/Pullback 2nd entry
again if you need to limit risk or if you get emotional, you can
limit the number of trades you do, you don't have to follow every
sub system trade, you can set a maximum, if systems take trades on
the same day you can always elect to treat that as one entry for
example. For simplicity I just report what all the subs systems are
doing and post their trades from entry to exit.
As far as options- yeah you can't complain too much
if an option gets cut in half, they are much more volatile than the
ETF's, if a SPY entry is down 7%, an option might be down 50%. Also
back when I put out option trades I went out 2 months, and they
were almost at the money, those do not degrade as much as if you
pick an option that is out of the money and is far from the strike
price
Unfortunately I will be gone until early afternoon. I will be
leaving at 10 am EST, unfortunately I have to go to an appointment
with my wife that is 1.5 hrs away. At least it's OPEX and futures
moved back, I was worried about trying to monitor all that while in
the car LOL
I need to post my stats sometime again on that - as you know for
man years every year I made a video on that, I have a spreadsheet
with all the data, and also added my own touch to it
yes proper wedge patterns have 5 waves, whether they are falling
wedges or rising wedges, abcde. Also, an important note, a
completed or near completed wedge will always have MACD divergence,
if you draw a wedge that looks okay but there is no MACD
divergence, then changes are the wedge is not complete and it's
still some sort of 3 wave
DRI, not the greatest wedge, but sort of has that look and yes
you can count 5 waves with MACD divergence at those highs, that
high would be wave e if it's a wedge
the IWM chart is simply textbook they don't often look that
picture perfect
you know what blows - I run a 30 min KISS system on CL crude oil
futures, it was long and so was I, the trade was down and I decided
to close it out earlier against the system - of course shortly
after closing out BAM this happens and crude oil pops $3, I would
have been up huge had I just left it alone LOL
well like Steve said, don't beat myself up, this was unexpected
news and news trumps things. Israel said they were going to hold
off for a while LOL, yeah a day
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For RETL looks like it
KISS systems updated
Posted by matt on 19th of Apr 2024 at 08:34 pm
For RETL looks like it was a washout oversold reversal trigger
KISS systems updated
Posted by matt on 19th of Apr 2024 at 05:41 pm
the rest of the open FANG stocks closed out, nice profits though
Also MARA went long, and this is a good example of the system going long just a couple bars off the lows, you also had a Demark 13
https://breakpointtrades.com/sts_table/?search=BPT_basket
https://breakpointtrades.com/ts/view_chart.php?s=MARA&g=BPT_basket
ALJ went long similar scenario
https://breakpointtrades.com/ts/view_chart.php?s=AJG&g=SP_500
TNA 60 min
Posted by matt on 19th of Apr 2024 at 04:22 pm
TNA - Chart LinkTNA has a nice wedge setting up with MACD divergence on the 60 min time frame
yep so far it's back
VIX may close inside BB today after spike to 21.50 ...
Posted by matt on 19th of Apr 2024 at 03:52 pm
yep so far it's back in, big black candle, unless price dumps here the last 8 min it's likely to close inside
NYSE TICK levels on SPX
Posted by matt on 19th of Apr 2024 at 03:51 pm
man I just looked, the next TICK pivot below isn't until 4922, from Jan 29th, price is in the middle of TICK level from 4984 - 4922
hopefully price rebounds next week and we don't have to go down to that next level below
yes gonna be additional entries
Additional SPY entries?
Posted by matt on 19th of Apr 2024 at 03:40 pm
yes gonna be additional entries - pucker trades/systems I call them, that's the problem with mean reversion systems, they have high winning percentages, but when they scale into a strong pullback/correction and take heat, it's emotionally difficult at times to follow them.
as I've always said - mean reversion systems are NOT feel good systems, they buy when it feels horrible, and when they are earlier it feels more horrible LOL, it is what it is.
the KISS is easier honestly because you have your stop and risk defined
systems additional entries, three ES sub systems taking 2nd or 3rd entries, only one SPY system taking an additional entry
MES futures mean reversion systems
CCI divergence 2nd entry, Trend/Pullback 3rd entry, QE BTS 3rd entry
SPY mean reversion systems
Trend/Pullback 2nd entry
again if you need to limit risk or if you get emotional, you can limit the number of trades you do, you don't have to follow every sub system trade, you can set a maximum, if systems take trades on the same day you can always elect to treat that as one entry for example. For simplicity I just report what all the subs systems are doing and post their trades from entry to exit.
As far as options- yeah you can't complain too much if an option gets cut in half, they are much more volatile than the ETF's, if a SPY entry is down 7%, an option might be down 50%. Also back when I put out option trades I went out 2 months, and they were almost at the money, those do not degrade as much as if you pick an option that is out of the money and is far from the strike price
TSLA
Posted by matt on 19th of Apr 2024 at 03:20 pm
TSLA - Chart Link- next big support is blow in the 110 - 120 area
back finally
Posted by matt on 19th of Apr 2024 at 03:19 pm
FNGD - Chart Link- nice move on these, that FNGD was just textbook base
NVDD - Chart Link-
AAPL monthly
Posted by matt on 19th of Apr 2024 at 10:03 am
AAPL - Chart Link I'm taking off, see you guys in about 4 hrs
RSG follow up
Posted by matt on 19th of Apr 2024 at 09:48 am
RSG - Chart Link-
FNGD follow up nice
Posted by matt on 19th of Apr 2024 at 09:40 am
FNGD - Chart Link- remember this was basing
TSLA getting close to filling that gap
Posted by matt on 19th of Apr 2024 at 09:39 am
TSLA - Chart Link-
TSLA - Chart Link-
XBI low risk long?
Posted by matt on 19th of Apr 2024 at 09:37 am
XBI - Chart Link- could be low risk long with stop below 200 MA, LABU is the leveraged ETF
I will be gone for much of the day
Posted by matt on 19th of Apr 2024 at 09:21 am
Unfortunately I will be gone until early afternoon. I will be leaving at 10 am EST, unfortunately I have to go to an appointment with my wife that is 1.5 hrs away. At least it's OPEX and futures moved back, I was worried about trying to monitor all that while in the car LOL
Man I nailed some of those trades last night thank god
Posted by matt on 19th of Apr 2024 at 09:19 am
I was long MES yesterday and saw the futures down 80, was monitoring it. I ended up making some well timed buys that help me be up quite a bit today
I also shorted GC gold futures, there was a lower high at 2428 where I placed a stop, wasn't hit so that's up nicely too
here's the chars where I took trades. got lucky too
I need to post my
May officially marks the beginning of the “Worst Six Months” ...
Posted by matt on 19th of Apr 2024 at 09:13 am
I need to post my stats sometime again on that - as you know for man years every year I made a video on that, I have a spreadsheet with all the data, and also added my own touch to it
yes proper wedge patterns have
Hi Matt, I wanted to ask your thoughts regarding the ...
Posted by matt on 18th of Apr 2024 at 10:46 pm
yes proper wedge patterns have 5 waves, whether they are falling wedges or rising wedges, abcde. Also, an important note, a completed or near completed wedge will always have MACD divergence, if you draw a wedge that looks okay but there is no MACD divergence, then changes are the wedge is not complete and it's still some sort of 3 wave
DRI, not the greatest wedge, but sort of has that look and yes you can count 5 waves with MACD divergence at those highs, that high would be wave e if it's a wedge
the IWM chart is simply textbook they don't often look that picture perfect
good job on your conviction!
This chart I posted on 8/2023 has kept me in ...
Posted by matt on 18th of Apr 2024 at 10:42 pm
good job on your conviction! and yes none of us want anything bad to happen just because it happens to help our investment
FYI your chart is basically the same as as my gold monthly that I've shown for over a year now, I labeled that low in late 2022 as a wave 4 of C
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$GOLD&p=M&st=2006-06-01&id=p22877566163&a=1170085288&listNum=61
racerick - that news created
Selling relentless here
Posted by matt on 18th of Apr 2024 at 10:17 pm
racerick - that news created a lot of uncertainty so it's understandable, the markets do not like uncertainty, the first reaction is to sell
you know what blows -
Oil up 4% after news
Posted by matt on 18th of Apr 2024 at 10:16 pm
you know what blows - I run a 30 min KISS system on CL crude oil futures, it was long and so was I, the trade was down and I decided to close it out earlier against the system - of course shortly after closing out BAM this happens and crude oil pops $3, I would have been up huge had I just left it alone LOL
well like Steve said, don't beat myself up, this was unexpected news and news trumps things. Israel said they were going to hold off for a while LOL, yeah a day