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ES 15 min

Posted by matt on 24th of Mar 2024 at 09:37 pm

Perfect ping pong action on the 15 minute es chart between the cycles

Weekend Newsletter and Video March 24th 2024

Posted by matt on 24th of Mar 2024 at 05:09 pm

I hope everyone had a nice weekend, here's my weekend report

Youtube Video Sunday March 10th, 2024    - watch in full 1080 resolution on tablet or desktop NOT your phone

PLEASE leave a like and comment, helps the Youtube Algorithm to get out stuff more visible - I appreciate the support!

Newsletter Sunday March 10th  standard Webpage Format  - contains all the dynamic chart links

NVDA

Posted by matt on 24th of Mar 2024 at 03:27 pm

NVDA - Chart Link favoring a push to get over that 1000 area to set wave 5, view the last high as alt wave 5 for now

This week watch the US Dollar, NVDA, TLT and 10-year, and this potential 4th wave pullback on the SPX/ES futures

weekend writeup - newsletter out shortly

Posted by matt on 24th of Mar 2024 at 02:14 pm

Table of Contents:
1. Opening Discussion, KISS systems major update soon
2. General Market Analysis: SPX and Other Major Indices top down fashion higher to lower time frames) and look at the major big cap tech stocks (NVDA, AAPL etc)
3. Custom Indicators/Systems (VIX, NYAD) and Bonds (TLT/HYG), 10-Year Yield
4. Sectors Overview
5. US Dollar, Commodities, Crypto, Precious Metals and GDX and individual mining stocks 
6. Trade Ideas

Market Comments:  The 'bulls' continue to have the Football, and have had it since late October, which has made this uptrend quite impressive getting close to 5 months now. Early last week we pointed out  very obvious coil triangle patternson the S&P 500 and favored this as a 4th wave with another pop to the upside, which we got thus pushing the S&P 500 to close over 5200 new all time highs! For the week the SPX gained +2.3%, the Dow Jones +2%, the Nasdaq +3%, and the Russell 2000 +1.6%. 

Short-term: After the pop out of the coil into Thursday's high and pullback that extended into Friday, for now we are favoring this as another 4th wave of some degree with yet another pop to the upside. That said, it's getting trickier now and late in the game (may not be much blood left in the turnup should we get another pop to a new high). If the pullback on the SPX falls below 5175 it would overlap and negate the short-term wave 5 structure. The 20-day MA is your important support.

- The largest pullback during this entire uptrend was about 130 points on the S&P 500, meaning a pullback below 5130 would be required to break uptrend symmetry.
- For the QQQ, the largest pullback has been 17.6 points
- IWM appears to be some sort of rising wedge pattern wave 5
- Curious spike on the CPI Put/Call ratio to 1.29on Friday despite the market being almost at all time highs

- The US Dollar had a strong week gaining 1.1%
- Gold spiked to a high of 2225 before pulling back and closing at 2160. The daily chart of gold made a divergent high on that last push
- Bitcoin formed a weekly doji candle last week and last week lost -4.4%
- Energy Stocks once again had a great week but may be getting extended here

Economic News This week:
New Home Sales - Monday
FHFA Housing Price, S&P Case Shiller, Consumer Confidence - Tuesday
MBA Mortgage Apps, Crude Inventories - Wednesday
Initial Claims, GDP 3rd Est, Chicago PMI, Pending Home Sales, Nat Gas Inventories - Thursday

CPC spike?

Posted by matt on 24th of Mar 2024 at 12:22 pm

$CPC - Chart Link Weird spike here in the CPC on Friday, does anyone have any thoughts on what caused that? If it was options expiration I could see that but I think that was the previous week. Normally these fear spikes in the CPC like this only occur after a pullback in the market, not near the highs

yes of course, I mean

I'll be leaving about 8:15

Posted by matt on 22nd of Mar 2024 at 09:25 am

yes of course, I mean when I said I'd be back around 1, I just threw that out as a maybe, but probably won't be and won't really be thinking about the market anyway

thank you Steve and thanks

I'll be leaving about 8:15

Posted by matt on 22nd of Mar 2024 at 09:23 am

thank you Steve and thanks to everyone else as well who's already sent condolences 

I'll be leaving about 8:15

Posted by matt on 22nd of Mar 2024 at 09:22 am

my dad's funeral is today at Jefferson Barracks, a Military National Cemetery - will have the bugle and gun salute, the folding of the flag etc, I've never been to one of these but heard it's quite emotional, I'll make sure to bring some tissue.  It's about 50 min away, I'll be back probably around 1 pm

yep, been pretty easy, happy  you are playing them as well

I have 12 of these

GOOGL volatility system went short

Posted by matt on 21st of Mar 2024 at 07:54 pm

I have 12 of these volatility systems: 6 of them are on ETF's and 6 are on individual stocks

I would like to eventually get these on their own tables like the KISS systems and have them automatically send buy and sell signals

yes the volatility systems trades are very short term, a few days generally, it took a short, not a long.

here's the stats on the GOOG system.  Profit factor of 4. Average time in trades is 3 to 4 days.  368 total trades since 2011 with 73.4% winning trades. Looks like an average of about 30 trades per year.  The stats are based on each trading being $10,000 in size

GOOGL volatility system went short

Posted by matt on 21st of Mar 2024 at 04:45 pm

again system based on the VXGOG volatility index of Google with the bollinger bands, again basically similar to the VIX Bollinger band system

VLO

Posted by matt on 21st of Mar 2024 at 03:07 pm

VLO - Chart Link- this long has had a hell of a run, otherwise the daily MA ribbon is getting very stretched, and there's some MACD divergence on the 60 min and 2hr time frames, which is something to monitor if you haven't taken any profits yet

Update: Update: SWIM

SWIM

Posted by matt on 21st of Mar 2024 at 02:50 pm

SWIM - Chart Link- got into that supply zone where I took some profits

Update: GLD gold trade comments

GLD gold trade comments

Posted by matt on 21st of Mar 2024 at 12:03 pm

GLD - Chart Link- bounced near that support

you're right, a lot of

Posted by matt on 21st of Mar 2024 at 11:53 am

you're right, a lot of those Youtubers have their own merchandise stores where you can buy clothing and other things LOL

yep, were are definitely not moving BPT headquarters to San Fran LOL

though bad enough that I'm in 'sinking ship' Illinois, but that's because of parents, my dad recently passed, but my mom is still alive and I help take care of her 

here's all those T-Shirts I

Posted by matt on 21st of Mar 2024 at 11:50 am

here's all those T-Shirts I designed over the last couple years, I think I'm pretty good at it LOL - I still think it would be fun to make some of these, it's cheap like $10 or something, offer some for sale on BPT for fun. Wearing some of these would get you some weird looks or confusion from public 

Update: SWIM

SWIM

Posted by matt on 21st of Mar 2024 at 11:33 am

SWIM - Chart Link- nice trade on this so far, supply zone target is noted

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