Here's my detailed weekend newsletter/video with my thoughts on the markets, precious metals, crypto, and our trading systems

Youtube Video  Wednesday April 21st, 2024       - watch in full 1080 resolution on tablet or desktop NOT your phone

PLEASE leave a like and comment, helps the Youtube Algorithm to get out stuff more visible - I appreciate the support!

Newsletter Wednesday April 21st standard Webpage Format  - contains all the dynamic chart links

weekend newsletter is recorded, just waiting for it to upload and will then post

ES  futures are up 12, gold futures are down 13

https://www.ig.com/en/indices/markets-indices/weekend-wall-street 

IWM - Chart Link- 2hr, price is at a demand zone with some MACD and RSI divergence

IWM - Chart Link- 60 min nice wedge forming

TNA - Chart Link- here's the leveraged ETF, nice wedge and divergence

that said, on the 2hr time frame the MACD divergence is way below zero, and remember my educational discussion that divergence doesn't work as well when the MACD is too far from zero - so this may suggest that if we see a bounce here, it will still be quite volatile for a while

OIH - Chart Link- bouncing from a support zone

$BTCUSD - Chart Link- added price by volume, that's a real thin zone in there

$BTCUSD - Chart Link- thin zone, expect a quick hard dump if price falls into that thin zone region

NVDA - Chart Link-

NVDD - Chart Link- target is that supply zone above

Because we have not yet had an official recession the US Media, CNBC keeps discussing a soft landing, however I've always been the camp that a recession is coming, was simply delayed. 

The yield curve has been inverted for over 500 days, we’ve only seen this 3 times in history: 

1. 2007/2008
2. 1973/1974
3.  1927/1929

All 3 saw > 50% stock market drawdowns

hopefully things don't have to go through one of those major corrections/hard times like back then, but it would not surprise me, we all know something back is eventually coming 

$NYSI - Chart Link- that confirmed short on April 9th has been very good

!GT20SPX - Chart Link- a lot of the major bottoms have a 1/2 up up then down move before 'the' good bottom is in

For RETL looks like it was a washout oversold reversal trigger

the rest of the open FANG stocks closed out, nice profits though

Also MARA went long, and this is a good example of the system going long just a couple bars off the lows, you also had a Demark 13

https://breakpointtrades.com/sts_table/?search=BPT_basket 

https://breakpointtrades.com/ts/view_chart.php?s=MARA&g=BPT_basket 

ALJ went long similar scenario 

https://breakpointtrades.com/ts/view_chart.php?s=AJG&g=SP_500 

TNA - Chart LinkTNA has a nice wedge setting up with MACD divergence on the 60 min time frame

yep so far it's back in, big black candle, unless price dumps here the last 8 min it's likely to close inside

man I just looked, the next TICK pivot below isn't until 4922, from Jan 29th, price is in the middle of TICK level from 4984 - 4922

hopefully price rebounds next week and we don't have to go down to that next level below

yes gonna be additional entries - pucker trades/systems I call them, that's the problem with mean reversion systems, they have high winning percentages, but when they scale into a strong pullback/correction and take heat, it's emotionally difficult at times to follow them. 

as I've always said  - mean reversion systems are NOT feel good systems, they buy when it feels horrible, and when they are earlier it feels more horrible LOL, it is what it is.

the KISS is easier honestly because you have your stop and risk defined

systems additional entries, three ES sub systems taking 2nd or 3rd entries, only one SPY system taking an additional entry

MES futures  mean reversion systems
 CCI divergence 2nd entry,  Trend/Pullback 3rd entry, QE BTS 3rd entry

SPY mean reversion systems
Trend/Pullback 2nd entry

again if you need to limit risk or if you get emotional, you can limit the number of trades you do, you don't have to follow every sub system trade, you can set a maximum, if systems take trades on the same day you can always elect to treat that as one entry for example. For simplicity I just report what all the subs systems are doing and post their trades from entry to exit. 

As far as options-  yeah  you can't complain too much if an option gets cut in half, they are much more volatile than the ETF's, if a SPY entry is down 7%, an option might be down 50%. Also back when I put out option trades I went out 2 months, and they were almost at the money, those do not degrade as much as if you pick an option that is out of the money and is far from the strike price 

TSLA - Chart Link- next big support is blow in the 110 - 120 area

FNGD - Chart Link- nice move on these, that FNGD was just textbook base

NVDD - Chart Link-

AAPL - Chart Link I'm taking off, see you guys in about 4 hrs

RSG - Chart Link-