Matt, to be clear, it looks like the VIX top end standard 2.0
BB is 16.05, today. So if the VIX closes at 4:00pm under
16.05, one would buy the SPY after the close, anticipating an exit
on the subsequent close (Monday)? Thanks in advance for the
clarification and have a good weekend.
statistical information for traders relating to bias
(long/short) and position sizing. (from T Bowley):
VIX 20 or above:
SPX annualized return -37%
% days higher: 45%
VIX 17-20:
SPX annualized return +23%
% days higher: 51%
VIX 13 and below:
SPX annualized return +48%
% days higher: 67%
Mnuchin is incredibly composed and determined. Had the
opportunity to attend some of his cocktail parties in NYC before he
took on the role of Treasury Secretary. His apartment was quite
impressive (great art collection), and his wife (now divorced, I
believe) was undeniably elegant stunner.
ARM - what is the appropriate level for a Fibonacci retracement
starting point? 2/1 low - yesterday high? as of yesterday, long Feb
23 129/120 put spread. Retrace for asymptotic moves is 38%,
correct? Thanks for the help
Steve/Matt, SPY QQQ - If this is a Wave B, what Fibonacci
levels should one reasonably utilize, given the structure you
observe thus far? i.e. 50%, 61.8%, 76.4% or 85.4% of wave A?
Thank you
Positives for semiconductors, and TSM, in particular:
“The corruption inside China’s Rocket Force and throughout
the nation’s defense industrial base is so extensive that US
officials now believe Xi is less likely to contemplate major
military action in the coming years than would otherwise have been
the case.” represents a material reduction of one of the major risk
factors for semis.
1) S&P Equalweight index (SPW) is the most over-bought it’s
been since the Summer of 2020 - e.g. 14-day RSI = nearly 75 (vs the
14-day RSI for the big 7 = just ~55). 2) we are coming off a period
of historic ‘easing’ – historic collapse in yields, historic rip in
equities; note: GIR rates strategy makes that further Yield
declines could be limited in the near-term. 3) Dec +
Jan are seasonally very weak months for the Momentum factor (worth
keeping in mind given HF long portfolios have reached a near-record
tilt toward Momentum as a factor. Sentiment continues to turn as
the 4-week change in the AAII Bear Index was one of the largest
drops we have seen in the last 20yrs (e.g. bearish sentiment in the
market is at its lowest level since Jan of 2018). Source: GS Global
Banking and Markets as of 12/4/23
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Matt, to be clear, it
VIX smashed
Posted by te22 on 5th of Apr 2024 at 02:31 pm
Matt, to be clear, it looks like the VIX top end standard 2.0 BB is 16.05, today. So if the VIX closes at 4:00pm under 16.05, one would buy the SPY after the close, anticipating an exit on the subsequent close (Monday)? Thanks in advance for the clarification and have a good weekend.
VIX
Posted by te22 on 3rd of Apr 2024 at 11:15 am
statistical information for traders relating to bias (long/short) and position sizing. (from T Bowley):
VIX 20 or above:
SPX annualized return -37%
% days higher: 45%
VIX 17-20:
SPX annualized return +23%
% days higher: 51%
VIX 13 and below:
SPX annualized return +48%
% days higher: 67%
Mnuchin is incredibly composed and
SPX - down .8% is pretty serious. Another day like ...
Posted by te22 on 2nd of Apr 2024 at 04:04 pm
Mnuchin is incredibly composed and determined. Had the opportunity to attend some of his cocktail parties in NYC before he took on the role of Treasury Secretary. His apartment was quite impressive (great art collection), and his wife (now divorced, I believe) was undeniably elegant stunner.
Matt/Steve, NVDA - is a
Posted by te22 on 27th of Mar 2024 at 09:02 am
Matt/Steve, NVDA - is a double top in, or do you reckon the 5th wave over $1,000 is still in the cards? Thanks for your help
what is the cause of
Posted by te22 on 15th of Mar 2024 at 08:09 am
what is the cause of these 25-35bp spikes in SPY/QQQ since 8:00am - (seeing on Interactive Brokers)?
Steve, what are the potential
NVDA goes red
Posted by te22 on 8th of Mar 2024 at 11:45 am
Steve, what are the potential outcomes for NVDA intraday from here in your view? Much appreciated.
Steve/Matt, It would be greatly
Follow Nancy
Posted by te22 on 4th of Mar 2024 at 04:56 pm
Steve/Matt, It would be greatly appreciated if you would provide your updated perspective on PANW, either here, or in the newsletter. Thanks much,
Steve, assuming NVDA doesn't screw
NVIDIA Q4 2024 Adj EPS $5.16 Beats $4.64 Estimate, Sales ...
Posted by te22 on 21st of Feb 2024 at 04:52 pm
Steve, assuming NVDA doesn't screw up the conference call, what would the EW count suggest to you as next leg? Thank you
NVDA - long Mar 15
NVIDIA Q4 2024 Adj EPS $5.16 Beats $4.64 Estimate, Sales ...
Posted by te22 on 21st of Feb 2024 at 04:48 pm
NVDA - long Mar 15 730/800 Call spread and short $605 Puts in size + 3k shares :)
ARM - what is the
Posted by te22 on 13th of Feb 2024 at 11:49 am
ARM - what is the appropriate level for a Fibonacci retracement starting point? 2/1 low - yesterday high? as of yesterday, long Feb 23 129/120 put spread. Retrace for asymptotic moves is 38%, correct? Thanks for the help
Matt, Would you please provide
Posted by te22 on 1st of Feb 2024 at 09:50 am
Matt, Would you please provide a couple near-term exit price targets on URA? thanks
The chart links are appreciated.
Monday January 8th, 2024 Newsletter and Youtube Video
Posted by te22 on 8th of Jan 2024 at 11:00 pm
The chart links are appreciated. Thank you.
…links to Dec 27th newsletter.
Monday January 8th, 2024 Newsletter and Youtube Video
Posted by te22 on 8th of Jan 2024 at 10:33 pm
…links to Dec 27th newsletter.
Yes, thank you, Steve.
Steve/Matt, SPY QQQ - If this is a Wave B, ...
Posted by te22 on 8th of Jan 2024 at 02:17 pm
Yes, thank you, Steve.
Steve/Matt, SPY QQQ - If
Posted by te22 on 8th of Jan 2024 at 01:24 pm
Steve/Matt, SPY QQQ - If this is a Wave B, what Fibonacci levels should one reasonably utilize, given the structure you observe thus far? i.e. 50%, 61.8%, 76.4% or 85.4% of wave A? Thank you
Matt, what's the appropriate fib
NVDA very nice
Posted by te22 on 8th of Jan 2024 at 10:49 am
Matt, what's the appropriate fib extension to use on NVDA for a intraday price target? 1.618 vs Dec18 high and Jan 3 low ($523.57)? thanks
Positives for semiconductors, and TSM,
some new long ideas
Posted by te22 on 8th of Jan 2024 at 10:09 am
Positives for semiconductors, and TSM, in particular:
“The corruption inside China’s Rocket Force and throughout the nation’s defense industrial base is so extensive that US officials now believe Xi is less likely to contemplate major military action in the coming years than would otherwise have been the case.” represents a material reduction of one of the major risk factors for semis.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-01-06/us-intelligence-shows-flawed-china-missiles-led-xi-jinping-to-purge-military?sref=aqVfOg3J
Separately, NVDA has catalysts coming up with the reporting of some of their major customers: MSFT AMZN GOOGL
Rotation out of Mag7 into
Posted by te22 on 4th of Dec 2023 at 12:45 pm
Rotation out of Mag7 into the 493... Steve's simple guide: QQQ & SPY 30 min 50-10 SMA
GS: Technicals on our radar. 1)
Posted by te22 on 4th of Dec 2023 at 12:37 pm
GS: Technicals on our radar.
1) S&P Equalweight index (SPW) is the most over-bought it’s been since the Summer of 2020 - e.g. 14-day RSI = nearly 75 (vs the 14-day RSI for the big 7 = just ~55). 2) we are coming off a period of historic ‘easing’ – historic collapse in yields, historic rip in equities; note: GIR rates strategy makes that further Yield declines could be limited in the near-term. 3) Dec + Jan are seasonally very weak months for the Momentum factor (worth keeping in mind given HF long portfolios have reached a near-record tilt toward Momentum as a factor. Sentiment continues to turn as the 4-week change in the AAII Bear Index was one of the largest drops we have seen in the last 20yrs (e.g. bearish sentiment in the market is at its lowest level since Jan of 2018). Source: GS Global Banking and Markets as of 12/4/23
IWM 61.8% retrace...Matt, don't you
IWM - trend day, so far. I'm long SPSM (prefer ...
Posted by te22 on 1st of Dec 2023 at 01:04 pm
IWM 61.8% retrace...Matt, don't you always say to expect a reaction at the 61.8% "Master Fib"?