@Matt - would appreciate ur thoughts on probability of larger upside VIX gap being filled this pullback or if mkt is too bouyant...

One of my favorite books…

Basically no options buying demand beyond today so spy pinned unless more news creates short rally. Risk wary pros won’t be long into Mon. Spy vol has been tracking Oil vol lately so oil up spy vol low is unusual. Data suggests  could realize into a vol spike; situation fluid so must position to risk tolerance. 

0DTE options mkt pretty defined 6400-6600 range today; been great for collecting premium w/ these swings

Oh yeah, for sure there are Harvard business review case studies for MBAs on this topic. Bud Light being the poster child. On NKE though it’s at a logical monthly chart end of wave five bounce zone even if for short term bounce.  fundamentals are still relatively strong + dividend. Seems like good risk reward down at these levels. can think of it as out of the money options play.

I’ve also been watching NKE continue to crater but bought at 48 after drop AH. Still higher PE but maybe close to bottom zone. 

today's action expected w/ quarterly spx opex on jpm collar and high neg gamma. VIX setting up bullish hourly triangle to possibly pop again before this is all over.

No secret that key to being a successful trader long term is to weigh evidence and formulate your own probabilities (as Steve would generally say). Systems here have given plenty of bad trades in downturns and thats all it takes to lose your shirt. For ex, I rarely take system trades outside up trends anymore unless a 3rd entry and find the Trend models to be least reliable/early.  I have my own models / system and like to view in aggregate; personally i wouldnt just buy b/c one 'system' says so, but that  works for me. Find your style.

Just my 2cents from experience on the systems over the yrs...better in an uptrend; not as reliable during chop or heavy downturns as they give false signals (again from my experience b/c backtesting doesnt always translate to my real world), and yes dont trade levered during these times unless you have high conviction. I often sell options in these times instead, but that's my style. 

I usually want to be the house, but options premium too juicy recently and I sold lots of SPY puts for this wk at levels Im ok to be assigned.  

BROS pop on earnings AH after selling off recently.  Has weekly cup and handle look. 

VZ continuing to run...flight to safety healthy

I can count 5waves down on VIX 30min chart so some volatility due soon. 

Matt-These looking to hold thru weekend?

BROS may be the beneficiary. Big picture shows massive (coffee) cup and handle forming since IPO...going to new highs...

BROS

Starbuck’s new reward program sucks and may drive away loyal customers and show up in future earnings IMO, as a long time SBUX trader and customer. 

https://www.starbucks.com/rewards/upcomingterms/?correlationId=9812ae2a-de87-443c-bb1c-9e7ca70842d7-0